Friday NBA PRO Report: Why Celtics-Clippers is Drawing Sharp Action (Feb. 5)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum
- Although it's likely to regress as tip-off approaches, the bet-vs.-money distribution for Friday's Celtics-Lakers game is eye-catching.
- Danny Donahue breaks down how sharp bettors are approaching this matchup.
A nine-game NBA slate presents itself to bettors on Friday night, and sharps have taken notice.
They’ve hit two games in particularly noteworthy fashion: Pelicans-Pacers and Celtics-Clippers. Let’s take a look.
Note: Odds, data as of 1:30 p.m. ET.
NBA Odds: Pelicans vs. Pacers
|PRO Projection||IND -2.5|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
It’s not often you’ll see an NBA spread shift as much as tonight’s Pelicans vs. Pacers line. Our PRO Report details below how sharps have been behind it, and how games like this one have played out in the past.
NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Pelicans vs. Pacers
As you can probably tell from the massive line move that’s taken place, sharps are (or were) all over the Pelicans tonight.
This line has come all the way from openers of Pacers -5 down to a single point, which would be telling in any case, but even more so when paired with the Pelicans receiving just 45% of spread bets.
Sure enough, Action Labs has confirmed the indication of professional action with five Bet Signals on the Pelicans, each triggered by market-wide movement caused specifically by sharp activity.
Sharp Action edge: Pelicans
Providing another indication of that sharp action (and giving oddsmakers more reason to move this line), the 45% backing of the Pelicans has generated 86% of the actual money hitting this spread.
Of course, that’s a financial liability that merits a response, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals the Pelicans are attracting much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Pelicans
And while it’s always worth noting the side attracting the professionals, it’s probably also comforting to know that games boasting this sort of bet-vs.-money distribution have led to profits, historically speaking.
As of writing, the Pelicans fit our NBA Tickets vs. Money PRO System, which has returned a 55% cover rate on a sample of more than 600 games since 2015 (when we began collecting money percentage data).
PRO Systems edge: Pelicans
NBA Odds: Celtics vs. Clippers
|PRO Projection||LAC -4.1|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
A similar story is unfolding in tonight’s late-night highlight, though this one takes place on the over/under.
NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Celtics vs. Clippers
Once again, a line is on the move in the direction against its popular side. This time, it’s the total that’s dropped despite 76% of bettors taking the over.
A pair of Action Labs Bet Signals confirm the reverse line movement to be a result of sharp action once again, with the pros causing market-wide movement by hitting the under at 221.5 and 221.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Although it’s likely to regress as tip-off approaches, the bet-vs.-money distribution is even more eye-catching at this point.
The 24% of bettors on the under have accounted for 74% of the money that’s hit the total, again revealing the opinion of the bigger, sharper bettors.
Big Money edge: Under
History is on the sharps side here, as well. Thanks to the Clippers’ 14-9 record to the over, they’re likely to see some inflated totals according to our Action Labs database.
As a result, this game fits our Unders On Good Home Over Team PRO System, boasting a 57% win rate on a sample of more than 900 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Under