NBA PRO Report: Warriors vs. Nuggets Over/Under Drawing Sharp Action (Thursday, Jan. 14)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jamal Murray
- Thursday night's Warriors vs. Nuggets game opened with a consensus over/under of 229. Since then, it's fallen as low as 225 across the betting market.
- Using our PRO Report, Danny Donahue uncovers the reason behind the game total's precipitous fall.
- Below, read how sharp bettors have approached tonight's matchup and how you should bet the game total based on historical precedent via our PRO Systems betting trends.
NBA Odds: Warriors vs. Nuggets
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
For a brief time, tonight’s Warriors-Nuggets matchup was boasting the highest over/under of the night. And while it’s still no slouch in the points department, it has lost that title as of late Thursday morning.
According to our PRO Report, sharp action is to blame — and history suggests the sharp play holds value. Let’s take a look.
Note: Odds, data as of 11 a.m. ET.
NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Warriors vs. Nuggets
If oddsmakers’ goal was to attract an equal amount of bettors to the over and under in this game, then they nailed it. As of writing, the total has generated a 51-49 split (with the edge going to the under). The problem has been that only one of those near-halves has consisted of sharp bettors.
Five Bet Signals from Action Labs have been triggered on the under since this line opened, revealing five instances of market-wide line movement caused specifically by sharp action.
As a result, this total sits five points lower than its highest openers.
Sharp Action edge: Under
History is on the pros’ side as well, as evidenced by a PRO System match.
Thanks to Denver’s high over-rate early this season, the under in this scenario has returned a significant profit in the past. Our Unders on Good Home Over Team PRO System has hit at a 57% rate on a sample of more than 950 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Under