NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Wednesday, Dec. 11): How to Exploit the Absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo
Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe (6), forward Giannis Antetokoumpo (34).
- Wednesday's 11-game NBA slate features two player prop bets providing value
- This piece will focus on Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe and Kings PF Marvin Bagley
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s 11 games:
- New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks: 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings: 10:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-167)
The Bucks are going to provide a lot of value today with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the lineup.
Not only should most of the team see a bump in counting stats, but they should also see a few additional minutes. They’ve won their past 15 games by an average of 16.1 points, but they’re obviously not as dominant with Giannis out of the lineup.
His absence should also leave a large hole on the glass. He has averaged 13.2 rebounds per game this season (fifth-most in the NBA), and he leads the team with a rebound rate of 20.6%.
Bledsoe has seen a bump of +1.7% to his rebound rate with Antetokounmpo off the court this season, resulting in an average of 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. He’s in a nice spot vs. the Pelicans as well, who rank just 19th in terms of team rebound rate.
This prop seems like a slam dunk with Giannis out of the lineup, and I’d play it up to -200.
Kings PF Marvin Bagley
THE PICK: Under 15.5 points (-114)
Bagley has been sidelined since the second game of the season, but he’s expected to return to the lineup today vs. the Thunder. That said, don’t expect to see a full workload for Bagley.
The Kings were very cautious with him last season, so it seems likely he’ll be on some sort of minute restriction today. We currently have him projected for just 20.2 minutes, and it will be tough for him to score 16 or more points in such limited playing time.
Points should also come at a premium in this matchup. The Kings have played at the slowest pace in the league, while the Thunder have played at the sixth-slowest pace. The total on that game sits at just 208 points, which is the lowest mark on the slate.
Bagley is capable of filling up the stat sheet without a ton of minutes, but this is a nice combination of matchup and projected role. I like the under up to -135.