Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Chris Paul Points, More
Pictured: Chris Paul. Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
- Saturday's six-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Nets G D'Angelo Russell, Cavs G Rodney Hood, Rockets PG Chris Paul, and Kings G Bogdan Bogdanovic
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Saturday’s best props focus on four of the slate’s six games:
- Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers: 8 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Nets G D’Angelo Russell
The Pick: Over 18 points (-114)
The Nets are in a really intriguing spot. On one hand, they’re coming off a grueling double-overtime loss, so its possible that they could be a bit sluggish for today’s contest vs. the Wizards.
On the other hand, they’re playing a shorter rotation with Joe Harris and Caris LeVert both sidelined at the moment, and the Wizards rank sixth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season.
Overall, I think the positives vastly outweigh the negatives for a guy like Russell. He has averaged just 29.1 minutes per game this season, but has played at least 34.5 minutes in each of his past three games. He can score the basketball with the best of them when given the opportunity, so I think this line is a little low all things considered.
There’s obviously some risk targeting a team that just played a double overtime game, so I’m exercising a little caution here. I still think the over has value, but I wouldn’t play it at much higher than -114.
Cavs SG Rodney Hood
The Pick: Under 13.5 points (-110)
Hood had a nice stretch of playing time recently, but it seems as though those days are coming to an end. Alec Burks made his Cavs debut yesterday, and George Hill appears to be nearing a return as well.
Hood ultimately played just 21.6 minutes in the Cavs last game, and he’s currently projected for just 25.5 in the FantasyLabs NBA Models. Hood has averaged just 16.9 points per 36 minutes this season, so scoring at least 14 points in a reduced role seems like too much to ask. The Cavs also have a brutal matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors, resulting in a slate-low implied team total of 101 points.
The under has a Bet Quality of 10 in the Player Prop tool, and this line seems pretty exploitable. I’d play the under up to -175 at the current number.
Rockets PG Chris Paul
The Pick: Under 18.5 points (-125)
Paul made his return from injury in the Rockets’ last game, but this line feels a bit too high. For starters, he’s averaged just 17.6 points per game this season, and his current usage rate of 24.0% is his lowest mark since 2015.
James Harden has taken on a much larger role in his absence, and it’s possible he could continue to dominate the basketball even with Paul back in the picture: Paul posted a usage rate of just 21.0% in his first game back.
This game vs. the Bulls also has some serious blowout risk — the Rockets are currently 12-point favorites at home — so he could spend the fourth quarter on the bench instead of the hardwood.
I like this prop because we can win it in a variety of different ways, and I’d play the under up to -150.
Kings SG Bogdan Bogdanovic
The Pick: Over 15 points (-114)
Bogdanovic has been excellent for the Kings since returning from injury, averaging 15.1 points in just 25.9 minutes per game. That said, he’s been seeing much more court time recently, topping the 30-minute mark in three of his past four games. He’s unsurprisingly scored over 15 points in each of those contests, so the idea of getting this prop at better than even money is enticing.
I love the over at +110, but I think you can still bet it up to -130. I would play the over at 15.5 points as well.