Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Paul Millsap Assists, More

Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Paul Millsap Assists, More article feature image
Credit:

Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul Millsap

  • Sunday's two-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Nuggets PF Paul Millsap and Knicks PG Dennis Smith Jr.

Sunday’s best NBA player props for each of the slates two games:

  • Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets: 5 p.m. ET on NBATV
  • San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBATV

As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.

Nuggets PF Paul Millsap

The Pick: Over 1.5 assists (-135)

This is a pretty low bar for Millsap, who has historically been a solid passer for a big man. He’s averaged 2.3 assists per game throughout his career and has averaged at least 1.9 assists per game in each of the past nine seasons.

His playing time has waned a bit this year, but that still hasn’t stopped him from handing out at least two assists five of his past six games. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Clippers, who have played at the ninth fastest pace this season. The Nuggets resulting implied team total of 121.75 is the top mark on the slate.

Millsap played 32.3 minutes in his last game, and his assist numbers should only increase if he continues to see that much playing time. I’d play the over up to -155.

Knicks PG Dennis Smith Jr.

The Pick: Under 15.5 points (-115)

Smith Jr. is still an important part of the Knicks future, but his outlook for tonight’s contest vs. the Spurs is not nearly as bright. Emmanuel Mudiay returned to the Knicks’ rotation in their last game and Smith Jr.’s playing time took a drastic hit as a result.

He played just 21.7 minutes and tallied just seven points, so this line is simply too high. He scored more than 15.5 points just once in his previous four games even when he was seeing a full workload.

Betting unders is always scary, and Smith Jr. definitely has the potential to score a bunch of points in a limited amount of playing time, but there is definitely some value with the under at the current number. I would play it up to -125.