NBA Sharp Report: Pros Finding Value in Bucks-Lakers Side, Over/Under

NBA Sharp Report: Pros Finding Value in Bucks-Lakers Side, Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers coach Luke Walton (left), LeBron James (23).

  • Two games, including tonight's game of the night (Bucks-Lakers), have attracted action from wiseguys.
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals reveal which way the smart money is going on Hornets-Nets (7:30 p.m. ET) and Bucks-Lakers (10:30 p.m. ET).

With a relatively small college hoops slate from which to pick tonight, basketball bettors have shifted over to the NBA, as some games that wouldn't normally be heavily bet are attracting high bet counts.

Of course, a game like tonight's Bucks-Lakers matchup will always attract some heavy action, and tonight, sharps are among those bettors playing it.


>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.


Charlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets

7:30 p.m. ET | FS-SE

Sharp angle: Hornets (moved from +3.5 to +3)

The first game catching the eyes of sharp bettors on Friday is among the least intriguing to most recreational bettors. Given some of the other options on tonight's slate, a matchup between two middle-of-the-road Eastern Conference teams isn't doing much to move the needle.

Still, sharps have found some value on the visiting Hornets, which is all that matters to them.

Seventy-four percent of bettors playing this game have laid the points with Brooklyn, but that hasn't led to any line movement toward the Nets throughout the day. In fact, the books that opened the spread at -3.5 have dropped back to the market consensus of -3.



Despite its 26% backing, Charlotte has drawn an impressive 68% of actual money being wagered on the matchup. And since sharp bettors are more likely to be betting larger amounts than public Joes, that discrepancy points to some heavy sharp action taking the points.

Confirming that indication have been two Sports Insights Bet Signals, triggered whenever sharp action causes a significant market-wide line move. In this case, both moves came at the opening number of +3.5, so it has yet to be confirmed whether wiseguys see value in the +3 currently being offered.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers

10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Sharp angle: Lakers (moved from +4.5 to +4), Over (moved from 236.5 to 238.5)

While sharps may not care whether a game is considered high profile, that doesn't mean they won't bet one if value arises.

Tonight, they've not only bet the marquee matchup, they've hit it twice, finding value on both the side and total.

The Lakers' market activity has been similar to that of the Hornets, in that a large small percentage of bettors have been able to hold the line, and even drop it in a few cases.



Only 28% of bets in this matchup are landing on LA, but the Lakers have remained at +4, and even dropped from +4.5 at the few books that were offering that number for a time.

Two SI Bet Signals have hit the Lakers, though it's worth noting that the most recent one came at +4.5.

Speaking of Bet Signals, the over has drawn two of its own, helping drive this up two points from its opener.

While not in a contrarian spot like the other sharp plays this evening — which is to be expected given the public's general attraction to overs — the 56% of bettors on the over have accounted for 82% of money being wagered on the total, once again revealing the opinion of bigger, sharper bettors.

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Nick Sterling
May 2, 2024 UTC