NBA Sharp Report: Pros Betting Jazz-Hornets, 2 Other Friday Games
Rudy Gobert. Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three NBA games Friday night, headlined by Utah Jazz-Charlotte Hornets (7 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Cleveland Cavaliers-Boston Celtics (7 p.m. ET) and Denver Nuggets-Portland Trail Blazers (10:30 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
Sharps swung and missed on their “Fade the Trendy Underdog” play last night, as the Raptors beat the Warriors, 131-128, in overtime but failed to cover the spread.
Tonight, wiseguys look to bounce back and cash in on a massive 11-game slate.
After consulting the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games that pros are betting on Friday night, with two games starting at 7 p.m. and one at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Jazz (+2)
The Jazz are 10-12 and the Hornets are 11-10. The public says give me the team with the slightly better record laying a short spread at home. But once again, sharps are zigging while Average Joes zag.
Charlotte opened as a 2-point favorite. Despite receiving nearly 75% of spread bets, the line has remained frozen at Hornets -2. Normally, a team getting such heavily public support will move to -3 or -4.
The fact that the line hasn’t budged is clear evidence of wiseguy liability on the road dog, with books reluctant to hand out even an additional half-point to sharp contrarian bettors.
Pros got down hard Utah at +2 and +2.5, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves via Sports Insights’ Bet Signals.
Sharps might be eyeing the Jazz to win straight up as well. Utah fits the profitable Bet Labs moneyline PRO system Bet Against the Public Small Dogs (+91.02 units, 7.8% ROI since 2005).
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (209 to 206.5)
Public bettors are somewhat torn on this total, but wiseguys have taken a clear side.
The Cavs are the lowest scoring team in the NBA (103.5 PPG), while Boston is the 23rd-ranked scoring offense (107.1 PPG) and fourth-best scoring defense (104.3 PPG).
As a result, it’s no surprise that the public is leaning Under (56% of bets). However, we’ve also seen a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy, with 94% of dollars going Under.
Pros hammered the Under four separate times, triggering a plethora of steam and reverse line moves. This overload of sharp action caused the total to fall from 209 to 206.5.
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
10:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (214.5 to 213.5)
Goodfellas are staying up late to sweat this under-the-radar total play.
Currently, 82% of bets are taking the Nuggets-Blazers Over, making it the most lopsided total play of the night. However, we’ve seen this line fall one point since opening.
Pro bettors got down hard on the Under, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. The Under also enjoys a notable smart money discrepancy. Only 18% of bets are taking the Under, yet it accounts for nearly 50% of dollars.
This Under also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Reverse Line Movement Unders (58.7% ATS since 2005).