NBA Sharp Report: Pros Betting Wizards-Blazers, Two Other Monday Games
credit USA Today Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three NBA games on Monday, headlined by Wizards-Blazers (10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Pacers-Timberwolves (8 p.m. ET) and Suns-Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET).
Sharp bettors went 2-1 with their weekend plays. Tonight they’re picking their spots and being selective, knowing that they must win 52.38% of the time in order to break even (assuming -110 standard juice). Anything above that is pure profit.
After analyzing Monday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three NBA bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 8 p.m, 10 p.m. at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 221.5 to 226.5)
It’s a misconception that sharps and squares are always on opposite sides. Although rare, it does happen from time to time. This game is a perfect example of that.
The over has received 72% of bets, indicating heavy public betting. However, it also accounts for 93% of dollars, evidence of smart money as well.
Pro players at BetOnline, 5Dimes, Heritage and ABC have been hammering the over, triggering four separate steam moves. This overload of sharp action has forced bookmakers to adjust the total up from 221.5 to 226.5.
NBA rule changes and teams committing to higher “pace” have led to Overs cashing bigly so far this season: 27-12, 69.2%, +13.59 units, 34.8% ROI.
An added bonus: Scott “Over” Foster is the head official (unders -69.66 units since 2005 with Foster as the lead ref).
Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Wizards (+5)
Historically, October is the best month of the year to bet contrarian underdogs. Since 2005, dogs receiving fewer than 35% of spread bets have gone 78-52 (60%) against the spread (ATS).
So far this year they’re off to a 7-2 (77.8%) ATS start.
The Wizards fit that system tonight. Washington opened as a 5-point dog.
Even though Washington has gotten only 29% of spread bets, the Wizards’ line has remained frozen at 5. In fact, it has even dipped down to 4.5 at some books, indicating liability on the road dog.
Washington received four separate steam and reverse line moves at Buckeye, Sportsbook, CRIS and Bovada.
The Wizards also enjoy a profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy (29% bets but 60% dollars) and fit the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Small NBA Road Dogs, Against Public (+94.96 units, 8.4% ROI since 2005).
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
10:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 228.5 to 227.5)
The public loves betting the over anytime Dub Nation takes the court. The oddsmakers know this and will shade the over with public bias in mind. This allows sharps to capitalize on an inflated contrarian under.
This total opened at 228.5. Nearly 80% of bets are taking the over, yet the line has fallen to 227.5. This reverse line movement was caused by sharps at CRIS getting down hard on the under.
The under also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Divisional Unders with RLM (58.9%, +81.25 units, 15.1% ROI since 2005).
When two teams in the same division play each other, it leads to lower-scoring games because of the squads’ familiarity with each other.