Saturday’s 3 Best NBA Player Props: Kelly Oubre Set Up for Success
Pictured: Suns F Kelly Oubre, Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA Today Sports
- Saturday's seven-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Wizards F Davis Bertans, Bucks C Brook Lopez, and Suns F Kelly Oubre.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:
- Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns: 9 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Wizards PF David Bertans
THE PICK: Over 5 rebounds (-120)
Bertans is basically the last big man standing for the Wizards at the moment. Rui Hachimura, Mo Wagner, and Thomas Bryant are all out, while Ian Mahinmi continues to play limited minutes. That doesn’t leave much depth behind Bertans, who has logged at least 35.9 minutes in three straight games.
Unsurprisingly, his boost in playing time has resulting in an uptick in boards. He’s grabbed at least seven rebounds in each of his past two contests, and he’s averaged 5.8 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. The 76ers aren’t a great matchup for rebounds — they rank first in the league in team rebound rate — but Bertans should still have plenty of opportunities to hit the glass in this contest.
I don’t love the matchup, but this line is limply too low for a PF playing around 36 minutes per game. I like it up to -130.
Bucks C Brook Lopez
THE PICK: Under 5 rebounds (-120)
Lopez is listed at 7-foot-0, but he plays like he’s 5-foot-8. He’s spending more and more time on the perimeter on offense, resulting in an average of just 0.6 offensive rebounds per game. He hasn’t been much better on the defensive boards either, grabbing just 4.4 per game. Overall, he’s logged five rebounds or fewer in six of his past seven contests.
His current matchup vs. the Knicks is also bad for a variety of reasons. For starters, they’re actually pretty competent on the glass, ranking fifth in the league in team rebound rate. That said, rebounding is just about the only thing the Knicks do well, which is why they’re 12.5-point underdogs today despite playing at home. It’s very possible that this game turns into a blowout, which could result in Lopez sitting more than usual in this contest.
Lopez sat out the Bucks’ first game vs. the Knicks this season, but virtually all of the starters played fewer minutes than usual in a massive blowout. With that in mind, I like this prop up to -135.
Suns F Kelly Oubre
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-110)
The Suns injury report is going to be a crucial factor on today’s slate. Deandre Ayton has already been ruled out, Ricky Rubio is doubtful, and Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky are questionable. If all four players ultimately sit out, Oubre could find himself carrying a massive workload.
That could lead to a lot of success on the glass vs. the Rockets. They’re a below-average rebounding team, and they’ve also played at the second-fastest pace this season. Oubre is a quality rebounder for his size — he’s averaged 6.5 rebounds per 36 minutes this season — so there’s a lot to like with him in today’s contest.
This prop is way too low given the Suns’ current injury situation. I would be willing to play it up to -150.