Sunday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets: Can Davis Bertans Continue to Produce?
Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Davis Bertans.
- Sunday's six-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Wizards F Davis Bertans, Raptors SF OG Anunoby, and Bulls G Coby White
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards: 6 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers: 6 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat: 6 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Wizards PF Davis Bertans
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-121)
The Wizards are currently dealing with an injury to starting center Thomas Bryant, which has opened up some additional playing time for Bertans. He’s logged at least 32.6 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s eclipsed 37.1 minutes in two of those contests. Bertans has averaged 5.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so it’s not surprising that he’s hit the over in two of those contests.
This line is simply too low considering Bertans’ current workload. I’d play the over up to -150.
Raptors SF OG Anunoby
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (-110)
The Raptors have gotten healthier recently, with Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka both returning to the lineup after extended injury absences. That has had a negative effect on Anunoby, who has played 23.5 minutes or fewer in each of his past two games. Anunoby is a low-usage player — his usage rate of 14.5% ranks 12th on the team — so the reduction in playing time is going to have a big effect on his scoring average. He’s averaged just 7.5 points over his past two contests, and he’s been below 9.5 points in each.
Anunoby also has a dreadful matchup vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, who currently rank sixth in the league in defensive efficiency. The Raptors are implied for just 105.5 points, which is the third-lowest mark on the slate.
This is the perfect combination of player, role, and matchup for an under. I would play it up to -130.
Bulls G Coby White
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-110)
White is another appealing under candidate. He’s coming off just 19.5 minutes in his last game, and his playing time has steadily dwindled since the beginning of the year. He’s logged 22.3 minutes or f in each of his past four contests, and it’s tough to score points if you’re not on the court.
White is in a difficult spot today vs. the Miami Heat, who rank eighth in the league in defensive efficiency. Some of their advanced metrics suggest that they’re due for regression moving forward, but the Bulls don’t seem like the type of team to capitalize on that. They rank 28th in offensive efficiency, so they’ve struggled to put points on the board all season.
Scoring at least 12 points is a tough task for anyone expected to play just 20 minutes. I like the under up to -140.