2020 Arizona Democratic Primary Odds: Joe Biden a Near-Lock to Win Tuesday
Photo credit: Michael Brochstein / Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- The betting favorite in all four states voting in the 2020 Democratic Primary on Tuesday, Joe Biden is massive -10,000 favorite to secure the most delegates in Arizona.
- The odds give the former vice president a 93.5% implied probability of winning; he's a similar favorite to win the nomination currently.
- Bernie Sanders is down to a +1600 underdog, giving him just a 5.6% implied probability of winning.
Despite the threat of COVID-19 in the United States currently, the four states currently slated to vote in the 2020 Democratic primary on Tuesday, March 17 — Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio — will still hold the elections.
The race is now down to just three candidates: Former vice president Joe Biden, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii rep. Tulsi Gabbard.
Biden remains a heavy favorite to win the nomination, and he’s now even money with President Donald Trump to win the general election in November amidst the current health threat and economic turmoil.
The candidates will compete for 67 total delegates in Arizona, which makes up about 1.7% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently a massive favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -10,000 odds (bet $10,000 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 93.5%.
Sanders is down at an implied probability of 5.6%, while Gabbard is at 0.9%.
One way the COVID-19 situation could affect the primary is with the age gap: Older citizens are at a higher risk — according to data we’ve seen so far — and there’s a stark gap between support for Biden (generally older) and Sanders (generally much younger). Biden likely has too much of a lead to skew this, but if voter turnout is drastically affected, it could make a difference.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight is right in line with the betting market here, as they give Biden a 98% chance to win Arizona.
See the full Arizona primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Arizona Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -10,000 means that if you bet $10,000 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +1600 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $1,600.
- Joe Biden: -10,000, 93.5% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +1600, 5.6% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability