2020 Presidential Election Odds: Trump Not Favored For First Time As Biden Emerges As New Favorite


Jonathan Newton /The Washington Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Donald Trump, Joe Biden

Monday Update

12:30 p.m. ET: For the first time this cycle, Donald Trump is no longer the betting favorite to win the 2020 presidential election.

Trump’s betting odds at European sportsbook Betfair have steadily declined since Super Tuesday, with his implied probability of winning falling from 50.2% to 43.1%.

That means Joe Biden is now favored to win in November with +100 odds (bet $100 to win $100) — an implied probability of 45.3%.

2020 Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden: +100, 45.3% implied probability
  • Donald Trump: +110, 43.1% implied probability
  • Mike Pence: +2500, 3.5% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: +3300, 2.7% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +3300, 2.7% implied probability
  • Nikki Haley: +6600; 1.3% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +8000, 1.1% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +30000, 0.3% implied probability

If you’re new to betting, +100 odds means that if you bet $100 on Biden, you’d profit $100 if he won. If you bet $100 on Trump at +110 odds, you’d profit $110 if he’s reelected.

To convert odds, check out our Betting Odds Calculator.

Note that all the implied probabilities above are vig-free.

Check out the best online sportsbooks in the U.S. and download our FREE app to get more political odds and betting analysis.

Sunday Update

In a matter of only a few days, Donald Trump’s implied probability of winning the 2020 presidential election has fallen from 50.2% to 43.9% according to betting odds at European sportsbook Betfair.

He went from a -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) as of Thursday to +100 (bet $100 to win $100) as of Sunday. Joe Biden’s odds, meanwhile, have risen from +110 to +100.

All that means that, according to the betting market, Trump and Biden are now even to win the election.

Heading into Super Tuesday (March 3), Trump was a -162 betting favorite, so his implied probability has fallen 8.7% since. For context on how much ground Biden has gained on Trump on the betting board over the past 12 days, the former Vice President was a +500 underdog (14.2% implied probability) prior to his big Super Tuesday wins.

Biden being even money to win the presidential election of course means that he’s a heavy -2500 favorite (88.8% implied probability) to win the Democratic nomination, mounting a growing lead over Bernie Sanders, who is an +2500 underdog (3.6% implied probability) heading into Sunday night’s debate.

We’ll continue to monitor how the betting market shifts in the coming days and weeks, but for now, let’s take a look at the most recent presidential election odds as of Sunday (via Betfair).

2020 Presidential Election Odds

  • Donald Trump: +100, 43.9% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +100, 43.9% implied probability
  • Mike Pence: +2000, 4.2% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: +3300, 2.6% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +3300, 2.6% implied probability
  • Nikki Haley: +8000; 1.1% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +8000, 1.1% implied probability
  • Evan McMullin: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +37500, 0.2% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +50000, 0.2% implied probability

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, +100 means that if you bet $100 on either Trump or Biden, you’d net $100 if they won. To convert odds for yourself, check out our Betting Odds Calculator.

Note that all the implied probabilities above are vig-free.

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