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English Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Aston Villa vs. Everton (Thursday, May 13)

English Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Aston Villa vs. Everton (Thursday, May 13) article feature image

Gareth Fuller – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Ross Barkley.

  • Aston Villa's season took a major hit after losing Jack Grealish to injury and is essentially all but out of the race for the Europa League.
  • Everton sits a point behind Tottenham Hotspur with a game in hand for the final Europa League spot awarded to the Premier League.
  • Despite Everton's better standing, BJ Cunningham thinks the Villans have a shot a repeating their earlier win over the Toffees in Tuesday's match.

Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds

Aston Villa Odds +195
Everton Odds +145
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-106 / -118)
Day | Time Thursday | 1 p.m. ET
Odds updated late Thursday morning via DraftKings.

Everton continue their push for a Europa League spot when they travel to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa.

Aston Villa’s hopes of a playing in the Europa League are essentially over as they’re eight points behind seventh-place Tottenham with four matches left in the season. However, they did face off against Everton a few weeks ago at Goodison Park, beating the Toffees 2-1.

The Villans  have shown a lot of improvement this season, but they’ve seen a dip in form over the past three months as they’ve been without their captain and best player, Jack Grealish. They will once again be without him on Sunday, and they’ll also be without star striker Ollie Watkins, as he is suspended for this match, so we’ll see if Aston Villa can cope without their two best players.

Everton got a crucial three points over the weekend against fifth-place West Ham, winning 1-0 on the road behind a goal from their main man Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Everton sit one point behind Tottenham with a game in hand for the final Europa League spot awarded to the Premier League. Three points for the Toffees will be vital against a side that beat them only a few weeks ago.

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Aston Villa

The Villans’ bad stretch over the past three months without Jack Grealish really was disappointing after the first half of the season was so promising. Now they’ll also be without their leading goal scorer Ollie Watkins, which creates a lot problems for Aston Villa coming into this match.

With Grealish, Aston Villa boast one of the best attacks in the Premier League, averaging 1.74 xG per match. However, with Grealish on the sidelines, the Villans are only averaging 1.09 xG per match. Now, without Watkins, Aston Villa lose their main goal scorer, as Watkins has bagged 13 goals and has a 0.45 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate.

However, Aston Villa dominated Everton a few weeks ago without Grealish, creating 1.99 expected goals and holding 54% possession in the match. It will be a challenge without Watkins, but Aston Villa should be able to repeat that same performance at home this afternoon.

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The Toffees have been really average offensively this season, creating only 1.33 expected goals (xG) per match. A lot of that has come from Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is the club’s main goal scorer and is averaging 0.61 xG per 90 minutes. Outside of Calvert-Lewin the Toffees don’t really have another goal-scoring threat, as Richarlison averages 0.34 xG per 90 minutes.

Most of Everton’s success this season has come away from Goodison Park, where they’ve grabbed 36 of a possible 51 points. However, their underlying metrics are not impressive, as the Toffees only have a 0.38 expected goal differential away from home.

It will be interesting to see what formation Carlo Ancelotti goes with for this match. In the meeting a few weeks ago, Everton went with a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is one they haven’t had much success out of this season, as the Toffees have a -0.24 xGD per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation. Everton’s most successful formation is a 4-3-3, which is what they’ve spent the most time in this season and have a had the most success with a +0.45 xGD per 90 minutes.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Even though Grealish and Watkins are out for Aston Villa, I still think the Villans are undervalued in this match due to Everton’s underwhelming expected goals record and the fact that Aston Villa were the better side only a few short weeks when these two teams met.

Therefore, I am going to backs Aston Villa’s Draw No Bet line at +107 odds via DraftKings as my top pick.

Pick: Aston Villa Draw no Bet (+107)

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