Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop (Mar. 18): Will Ante Zizic Score 10 Points?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have nine NBA and four NHL games.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

293-253-12, +30.81 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 175-143-4, +19.17 Units
• NHL: 65-78-7, -6.66 Units
• Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
• NASCAR: 5-8-0. -1.70 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 23-2-0. +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop for Monday, March 18: Ante Zizic Over/Under 9.5 Points

• Over 9.5: -135
• Under 9.5: +105

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the league at 17-53, but tonight they host the Detroit Pistons (7:00 p.m. ET), and center Ante Zizic's points prop is exploitable.

I'm aggressively looking to bet the over.

For the season, Zizic is averaging just 7.6 points on 18.2 minutes per game, but in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, we're projecting him for 31.0 minutes, so it's reasonable to expect a higher point total.

Over his past 10 games, Zizic has averaged 10.8 points over 27.1 minutes per game.

In his 22 games this year with at least 20 minutes, he's averaged 12.2 points. And in his 15 games with 25-plus minutes, he's had 13.5 points per game and scored fewer than 10 points just three times.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we're projecting him for 12.0 points.

I’d bet over 9.5 points all the way down to -150.

The Pick: Over 9.5 (-135)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.