3 NBA Props for Thursday: Antetokounmpo Over/Under 10 Rebounds?

3 NBA Props for Thursday: Antetokounmpo Over/Under 10 Rebounds? article feature image
The NBA Props article offers data-driven analysis on player prop bets for each day’s slate using The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights to highlight notable props.
Thursday’s analysis covers three props from the Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 starting at 8 p.m. ET:
  • Jaylen Brown (Boston) over/under 18.5 points
  • Jabari Parker (Milwaukee) over/under 5.5 rebounds
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee) over/under 10 rebounds 

All lines accurate as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 26. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

 

Jaylen Brown Over 18.5 Points (+100)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

After averaging just 5.0 points per game during the playoffs in his rookie year, Boston’s 2016 lottery selection has risen to the occasion in his second postseason with a smooth 21.8 points per game. Brown has scored 20 points or more in three of five games in the series so far, including two efforts of 30 or more. In nine total meetings with Milwaukee during the regular season and playoffs, Brown’s scored 168 points in 308.8 minutes, or 0.54 points per minute, which would put him on track for 20.5 points if he plays his series average of 37.8 in Game 6. Another good sign for Brown’s scoring prospects is that as of this writing, three-quarters of over/under tickets and money are on the over in this game.

Jabari Parker Over 5.5 Rebounds (-135)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

This prop is a little juiced up, but the over should still be a safe bet when considering that Parker has notched seven or more rebounds in each of the last two games and 2-of-3 since becoming a bigger part of the rotation in Game 3. After playing fewer than 15 minutes in each of the first two games of the series, Parker is averaging 29.2 minutes per game over the last three. He’s grabbed 0.23 rebounds per minute over the course of the series, and playing another 29.2 minutes in Game 6 would put him on pace to pull down 6.8 rebounds, which is right in line with his average of 6.7 over the past three contests.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 10 Rebounds (-110)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

After pulling down 22 rebounds (11.0 per game) in the first two games of the series, Giannis needed the next three games to rack up another 22 (7.3 per game). That reduction in boards coincides with Parker and Thon Maker entering the rotation, making Giannis more of a wing than a big. Per the FantasyLabs’ NBA On/Off tool, Giannis’ rebounding rate during the 2017-18 regular season and postseason has taken 3.8% hit with Parker and Maker on the floor, the largest such dip of any of Milwaukee’s main rotation players. With Parker averaging close to 30 minutes per game over the last three and Maker at 26.2 minutes per game over that span as well, the under is the smarter bet here.

Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Photo credit: Winslow Townson  – USA TODAY Sports