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Chris Raybon's Picks
Today
Pending
Jalen Milroe o38.5-122
1u
82
Finals No. 1 seeds 16-2 as favorites since 1984, winning 4-1 50% of time.
39
OKC 4-2: NBA Finals Exact Outcome +450
IND
111
110
OKC
0.62u
FINAL 6/06
NBA Finals No. 1 seeds 16-2 against non-No. 1 seeded dogs since 1984, winning 4-2 31% of the time.
22
Assist Leader in NBA Finals +350
IND
111
110
OKC
1u
FINAL 6/06
SGA 7.0 APG in playoff wins, 6.8 in losses. Hali 7.0 APG in playoff losses, 10.7 in wins. OKC D 4th lowest APG allowed reg szn, 21.8 playoff avg would lead all teams. Would play to +200 regardless of feeling on series, +150 for those most bullish on OKC.
7
SGA 7.0 APG in playoff wins, 6.8 in losses. Hali 7.0 APG in playoff losses, 10.7 in wins. OKC D 4th lowest APG allowed reg szn, 21.8 playoff avg would lead all teams. Would play to +200 regardless of feeling on series, +150 for those most bullish on OKC.
36
Hartenstein 7.9 RPG, Holmgren 8.6 RPG in playoffs and Hartenstein 16.0 reb chances in 23.9 min, Holmgren 16.2 reb chances in 29.6 min.
Hartenstein led Holmgren 10.7 to 8.0 in regular season with a similar spread when they share floor, and IND/Turner a better matchup for Hartenstein than MIN/Gobert last round, so good chance he's back to his usual mins instead of the 19.6 MPG he played last round.
No Pacer with more than 6.9 in regular season and 6.1 in playoffs.
Would play to +200
42
7.0 APG in playoff losses (-3.7 from wins). 8.5 APG in reg season losses (-1.4). Facing OKC D that allowed 4th fewest APG. u8.5 OK too.
14
PHI o20.5 Team Total-325
DAL
@
PHI
1u
09/05 12:20 AM
34
CLE +6-110
CIN
@
CLE
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
57
NYG +7.5-110
NYG
@
WAS
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
85
JAC o23.5 Team Total-130
CAR
@
JAC
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
44
NYJ +3-110
PIT
@
NYJ
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
92
Futures
Buffalo Bills+750
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
1u
Better path to #1 seed than KC, BAL.
Over wins in 7/8 with McDermott so high floor, unrealized ceiling.
Teams +600 to +999 to win SB win 18.6% of time vs 12.3% implied odds (+6.3%) since 2002.
58
Baltimore Ravens+775
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.9u
Teams +600 to +999 to win SB win 18.6% of time vs 12.3% implied odds (+6.3%) since 2002.
46
Kansas City Chiefs+850
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.9u
SB win in 3 of 7 since Mahomes took over, SB appearance in 5 of 7.
Tough first half schedule so opportunity to add more in-season.
39
Pittsburgh Steelers o8.5+115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
47
Jacksonville Jaguars o7.5-110
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1st time HC 56-45-4 (55.4%) over win total since 2002. #InLiamWeTrust
62
Miami Dolphins u8.5-155
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Win totals 8 to 8.5 just 7-13 (35%) since NFL went to 17g schedule in '21.
LT Armstead retired and MIA rumored to be trading remaining best players (WR Hill, CB Ramsey, TE Smith). Tua 4+ missed games in 3-of-4 seasons since becoming Week 1 starter.
65
Jacksonville Jaguars+335
2025 NFL AFC South - To Win
1u
1st-time HC +200 to +399 win division 33.3% of time since 2002 vs 27.6% implied odds (+5.7%). #InLiamWeTrust
54
San Francisco 49ers+2200
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
Last 9 Super Bowls feat a combo of Mahomes (5), Brady (4), PHI (3), McVay (2), Burrow (1)...and 3 Shanahan offenses.
Efficient QB (Purdy 8.9 career YPA), 8 draft picks in top 160, Saleh back at DC, #1 easiest SOS.
SF last 6: 2 last place finishes, to NFC Championship Ls, 2 Super Bowl Ls.
This sets up as a year where the 49ers let a season ruin their injury plans.
38
Los Angeles Rams+2200
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
Last 7 Super Bowls have featured some combo of Mahomes (5), Brady (2), PHI (2), Shanahan (2), Burrow (1)...and McVay (2).
McVay/Stafford/LAR the only non-KC/non-Brady/non-PHI SB winner since 2016 (9 seasons).
38
Green Bay Packers+2500
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
GB went 0-6 vs DET/MIN/PHI and 11-1 vs everyone else. DET/MIN/PHI got worse, GB got better.
Love top-5 in QBR (69.3) and NYA (7.50) in a "down" year, defense went from No. 27 to No. 7 in DVOA, and Alexander loss will be overrated (hasn't appeared in more than 7g since 2022, 2 INT over that span).
41
Chicago Bears+500
2025 NFL NFC North - To Win
1u
DET, MIN likely regress from 15/14 win seasons = GB and CHI undervalued, but CHI massively so for Div.
Upgraded at HC/PC (Ben Johnson), interior OL (Thuney/Dalman/Jonah Jackson), skill talent (TE Loveland R1, WR Burden Iii R2, washed Allen gone), defensive front (Jarrett, Odenigbo) and have last place schedule in gauntlet division (NYG/NO/CLE at home).
Teams ranked last in Div odds since 2003 are +3.1% vs implied while teams ranked 1-3 are -6.0% vs implied.
51
Philadelphia Eagles u11.5-120
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Lost OC Kellen Moore + a ton of defensive talent: ED Josh Sweat (36th/119 PFF), ED Bryce Huff (38th/119), DT Milton Williams (13th/118), LB Oren Burks (4th/84), CB Darius Slay (23rd/116), CB Isaiah Rodgers (24th/116), S CJ Gardner-Johnson (14th/98) + LB Nakobe Dean (12th/84) may miss time after major knee injury in Jan.
Top-5 hardest SOS w/ away games at KC, BUF, GB, TB, LAC and home vs DET, LAR, DEN, CHI + WAS H/A.
Win totals 11.5+ 7-3 to under since 2021, double digit win totals 71-59-6 (55%) to under since 2002.
48
Minnesota Vikings u8.5+145
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Brutal home slate PHI/BAL/WAS/CIN + DET/GB/CHI H/A, QB yet to take a reg szn snap,
14-3 record in 2024 was 2.9 wins over what their point diff implied. Teams that overperform by 2+ wins are 30-14-3 (68%) to under in following season.
47
Detroit Lions (No)+210
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
Lost OC Ben Johnson, pass G coordinator Tanner Engstrand, DC Aaron Glenn, 2 best interior OL (Ragnow, Zeitler).
Face top-3 hardest SOS feat 11 playoff teams, 7 outdoor games, road slate of PHI/KC/BAL/WAS/LAR/CIN/GB/CHI/MIN.
Since new playoff format in 2020, the 27 teams +185 or longer to miss playoffs have missed 33.3% of time compared to 25.5% implied odds (+7.8%).
47
Arizona Cardinals+575
2025 NFL NFC West - To Win
1u
SF/LAR better SB bets given pedigree but ARI not far off as a regular season team given similarly soft schedule, less injury-prone roster, offensive talent (+ Harrison improvement upside), drafting of defensive players in R1/2/3/4/5 to address biggest weakness.
Still seeing ARI behind SEA in spots which should not be the case (teams ranked last in Div odds since 2003 are +3.1% vs implied while teams ranked 1-3 are -6.0% vs implied).
Would play at +400 or better and expecting this to be a lot shorter after Week 5-6 (ARI starts at NO/CAR/at SF/SEA/TEN/at IND).
44
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 4-1-0 | 80% | 1.94u |
| Last 7 Days | 9-2-0 | 82% | 4.47u |
| Last 30 Days | 21-12-0 | 64% | 6.68u |
| All Time | 2059-1663-64 | 54% | 153.59u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 945-731-28 | 55% | 104.61u |
| NBA | 758-623-24 | 54% | 42.86u |
| NHL | 108-86-3 | 55% | 19.74u |
| MLB | 61-45-4 | 55% | 5.30u |
| UFC | 5-2-0 | 71% | 1.73u |
| World Cup | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0.50u |
| NCAAF | 1-1-0 | 50% | -0.09u |
| UFL | 5-8-2 | 33% | -3.77u |
| NCAAB | 155-156-3 | 49% | -23.07u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Ray-Ray McCloud under 0.5 receiving yards in 2022 Wild Card Playoff vs. Seattle.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Mac Jones safety with under two minutes to go to put Patriots down 4 (21-17) when I had them +3.5.
Specialties
- NFL spreads
- NFL totals
- NFL props
- Fantasy Football
- NFL DFS
- NBA props
- NBA spreads
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