Boston Is Ridiculous ATS as a Home Dog This Season

Boston Is Ridiculous ATS as a Home Dog This Season article feature image

Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brad Stevens

The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Cavs-Celtics Game 5.

Cleveland has won back-to-back games to even the series at 2-2. In LeBron James’ career, when his teams have won two or more playoff games in a row, they have gone 34-18-2 (65%) against the spread in their next game.

These teams like playing at home. In the playoffs, the Celtics and Cavs have combined to go 16-1 straight-up (12-5 ATS) in home games and 4-10 SU (5-9 ATS) on the road.

Under coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics have gone 60-45-1 (57%) ATS after losing two or more games in a row, including 5-2 ATS in the playoffs.

As a small playoff favorite (fewer than three points), LeBron’s teams have gone 18-9 (67%) ATS.

Will the Celtics’ home playoff success continue? Boston is 9-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs — the first team to start at least 9-0 ATS at home in the playoffs since at least 1990. Overall, in the playoffs and the regular season combined, Boston is the second-most profitable home team in the NBA behind the Sixers. Where the Celtics have really excelled is at home with a small point spread; in Game 5, they are exactly where they were in Games 1 and 2 — close to pick ’em. Here are their marks at home ATS this season …

  • Favorites by 3+ points: 17-16-2 ATS, -0.7 ATS differential, +0.3 units
  • Dogs or favorites by less than 3: 14-1 ATS, +9.0 ATS differential, +12.4 units

The Celtics have covered 14 consecutive home games as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than three points.

The Celtics have dropped two straight road games and are returning home to try to take back the series lead. Boston has won and covered seven consecutive home games in which it is coming off a road trip of at least two games, having lost at least the past two games in a row, including a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs.

The Celtics were massively outrebounded in both of their losses in Cleveland (10-rebound differential in Game 4 and 11 in Game 3). In the losses, Boston had fewer than 40 total rebounds. It is the first time since December that the Celtics had fewer than 40 rebounds in consecutive games, and both times that happened this season, they had 40 rebounds in their next game, won and covered. In last year’s playoff series against the Cavs, Boston was outrebounded 210-185, including in four of the five games.