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Game 5 Trends: Beware of the Publicly Backed Warriors ATS


Pictured: Stephen Curry. Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Rockets-Warriors Game 5.

Golden State had its 16-game home playoff winning streak snapped in Game 4. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have gone 12-5 straight-up and 10-7 against the spread after a playoff loss.

Bettors love the Warriors to bounce back. Golden State has 71% of spread tickets as a 1-point underdog. However, as small favorites (three points or less) and underdogs, the Dubs have gone just 24-24 ATS under Kerr.

The Warriors have a tendency to disappoint bettors if they receive lopsided betting action (regular season and playoffs since 2015):

  • 60% or more of bets: 132-134-4 (50%) ATS
  • 70% or more of bets: 72-83-3 (47%) ATS

Against Western Conference opponents in the playoffs, Golden State is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS after a loss, covering by 6.7 PPG.

The Warriors dropped Game 4 while scoring fewer than 100 points against the Rockets for just the second time in 19 meetings in the last three seasons. With the spread near pick ’em heading into Game 5, Golden State under Kerr in the regular season and playoffs has gone 27-8 SU (just 18-17 ATS) after scoring fewer than 100 points in a loss. Over the past three seasons, the Warriors are 21-4 on the moneyline in this spot, beating their opponents by 10.5 PPG.

The Warriors recorded only 14 assists in the Game loss to the Rockets — their lowest assist total in the playoffs under Kerr. Many would assume the Warriors would bounce back after a low-assist game, but under Kerr, they’ve gone just 8-13 ATS after recording fewer than 20 assists in their previous game, including 3-6 ATS in the playoffs.

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