NBA Betting, DFS Guide: Celtics-Wizards, Warriors-Jazz, More

NBA Betting, DFS Guide: Celtics-Wizards, Warriors-Jazz, More article feature image

Oh jeez, just a couple of days left in the regular season. Which teams are trying? Who’s gonna rest?!? Where does the value lie?!?!?

Hopefully, we’ll be able to make today and tomorrow a profitable endeavor before the playoffs start. That’s when the real fun begins. — Mark Gallant

All info as of Tuesday morning. Check back during the day and keep an eye on our Twitter handle for any updates.

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BOS-WAS | GSW-UTA | Quick Hits


8 p.m. ET | TNT

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

What I’m watching for: Boston’s just trying to survive at this point. The question is: What do the Wizards want? Do they want the No. 8 seed vs. the Raptors, whom they’ve beaten before? Do they want to try and move up to get Boston without Kyrie Irving? At this point, the Wizards just need a win to create a little bit of momentum. They’re a mess right now.

That said, I’m not going to lie. I can’t scout most of Boston’s team right now because I don’t remember how they looked in summer league. That’s probably a good indication to stay away. — Matt Moore

Metrics to know: The Wizards have lost four straight, including some embarrassing losses to Chicago and Atlanta. In that recent Atlanta game, they scored just 97.0 points per 100 possessions and dropped the contest by six at home. They were particularly atrocious at the rim, shooting just 38.1% in the restricted area; that’s one of the worst marks of the entire season. That said, that was without John Wall, who has been sitting out back-to-backs and games against nonplayoff teams. He’s gearing up for the playoff run, and he’s obviously very important to the Washington offense. When he’s been on the floor this season, the Wizards have shot 6.0% better at the rim and 2.2% better from behind the arc. Overall, they’ve been 5.4 points/100 better with him on the floor, which is a very significant difference. The Wiz should be trying to get up to the No. 7 seed to get Boston in the first round, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wall and Co. go hard in this one. — Bryan Mears

Trend No. 1 to know: Boston has lost three of its past four games. Under Brad Stevens, when the Celtics have been on a skid like this, they have gone 30-17 (64%) against the spread when their next game has been on the road. — John Ewing

Trend No. 2 to know: Since March 1, the Wizards are 5-12-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.4 PPG. During that span, Washington is the second-least profitable team in the NBA. Against teams over .500, the Wizards are just 4-8-1 ATS during that span. — Evan Abrams


8 p.m. ET

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

What I’m watching for: Utah needs this. The Warriors do not. Golden State cannot be bothered with trying to drive momentum. Be prepared for a whole lot of rest, even if the starters do start the game.

Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, after hitting a little rookie wall, is back to doing insane things over the past month. He’s also trying to make one final push for an unlikely Rookie of the Year steal. And he’s likely to see a lot of Nick Young defending him. Could be a huge game for the youngster. — Matt Moore

Metrics to know: Matt’s right: The Jazz need this one. And, honestly, they’ve been the superior team over Golden State of late. Over the past 10 games, Utah ranks second with a stellar +8.8 net rating; Golden State ranks a mediocre 16th with a +1.6 mark. Utah will definitely slow the pace down in this one, and the Dubs will likely comply with Stephen Curry out. The Warriors superstar has one of the most drastic effects on his team’s pace than any player in the league: The Dubs average a quick 101.8 possessions per 48 minutes with him on the floor this year versus just 95.4/48 with him off. For reference, their season-long mark of 101.9/48 ranks fifth in the league; the Spurs rank dead last on the season with a 97.1 pace mark. Utah is 26th in pace on the season, which means this one won’t have a ton of points. I’m sure the market will adjust to that, but if it’s not enough, the under could be interesting here.  — Bryan Mears

Betting market: Bets are relatively split, but money is all over Utah. The Jazz are getting over 80% of dollars and have moved from -5/-6 to -7.5 since opening. Furthermore, the Sports Insights line predictor tool believes the next line move will push them to -8. — Mark Gallant

Trend No. 1 to know: The Warriors are having their worst ATS finish to a regular season under Steve Kerr at 3-6 ATS in their past nine games. As a comparison, the Dubs ended last year’s regular season 8-2 ATS — the most profitable team in the NBA in that span. — Evan Abrams

Trend No. 2 to know: Golden State has been the least profitable team in the NBA this season when facing an opponent with a winning record at 15-28 (35%) ATS. A $100 bettor would be down $1,382 betting on the Warriors. — John Ewing

Quick Hits on the Rest of the Slate


7 p.m. ET

Trend No. 1 to know: The Pacers have been the most profitable team in conference play this season, going 32-19 (62.7%) ATS. — John Ewing

Betting market: With Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic all out, the Pacers have dropped from -5 to -2.5 since opening. — Mark Gallant

Trend No. 2 to know: The Pacers shot over 53% from the field in their win over the Hornets in their last game. This season, Indiana is 7-14 ATS (33.3%) the game after shooting over 50% from the field — the second-least profitable team in the NBA in that situation this season. — Evan Abrams


7:30 p.m. ET

What I’m watching for: The Sixers need two wins to clinch the 3-seed. They get to decide a lot of what they want as far as a first-round matchup. — Matt Moore

Trend No. 1 to know: In the last game of the season, teams that won less than 30% of their games (like the Hawks) have gone 16-27-2 (37%) ATS since 2005. — John Ewing

Trend No. 2 to know: Since the New Year, the Hawks are 3-10 ATS at home against the Eastern Conference. Over that span, the Hawks are failing to cover by 7.7 PPG. Against Eastern Conference teams above .500 in this situation, Atlanta is also 1-5 ATS, failing to cover by 10 PPG at home. — Evan Abrams

Betting market: The 76ers had dropped from -9.5 to -8 earlier in the day, but it looks like a combination of sharp and public bettors have driven the line back up to where it opened at -9.5. Over 75% of bets and 90% of dollars are Trusting the Process. — Mark Gallant


8:30 p.m. ET

Trend No. 1 to know: When horrible teams (win rate of 30% or worse) meet in April, the favorite is 17-8-1 (68.0%) ATS. — John Ewing

Trend No. 2 to know: Since 2009, the Mavericks and Suns have played 16 games in Dallas. The under is 13-3 in those games, going under by 9.3 PPG. — Evan Abrams


10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Trend to know: The Rockets and Warriors are neck-and-neck for tops in offensive efficiency this season. The Lakers are 17-11 ATS this season when facing teams with a mark above 105, which is about the top two-thirds of the NBA. Last season, the Lakers were just 13-14 ATS at home against good offensive teams, covering by 0.8 PPG; they’re covering by 5 PPG this season. — Evan Abrams

Betting market: Bets on the total are almost split 50/50, but a whopping 96% of dollars are on the under. Couple this with a steam move, and we see why the total has dropped from 219 to 217/217.5 across the market. — Mark Gallant

Pictured above: John Wall and Bradley Beal

Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports