3 NBA Props for Saturday: Valanciunas Over/Under 14.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Saturday: Valanciunas Over/Under 14.5 Points? article feature image

The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a number of exploitable props on today’s five-game slate. Here are three I like for games starting at 5 p.m., 7:30 p.m., and 8 p.m. ET.

Pistons SG Reggie Bullock Under 14.5 Points (-114)

5 p.m. ET

Bullock has managed to top 14.5 points in only 17 of 49 of his starts this season (35%). And despite shooting 52.9% from the field over his past five games, he’s only topped 14.5 points once during that span. The appeal of the under on this prop is enhanced by the fact that Detroit will be playing in New York, as Bullock’s field goal percentage drops from 53.9% at home to 44.3% on the road this season.

Raptors C Jonas Valanciunas Under 14.5 Points (-114)

7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV

Any time recent play inflates a prop, you should look to exploit it. Valanciunas has topped 14 points in each of his past four games, but did so by scoring an unsustainable 0.93  points per minute; his season average is 0.56. On the season, he’s been held under 14.5 points in 58% of his games. In Boston, he’ll face a team that has held him to just eight points in 39 minutes this season and allows the fewest points per game in the league to centers (11.8), per RotoWire.

Nets PG D’Angelo Russell Under 6 Assists (-114)

8 p.m. ET

After dropping 12-plus dimes twice in his past three games, the hype surrounding Russell’s passing skills is at an all-time high — NBA.com even did a feature on it. But sandwiched in between those games was a one-assist performance in 26 minutes, and Russell has been held under the six-assist mark in 59% of his games overall this season, including six of his past 10. The matchup is ideal to bet the under, as well: Miami allows the third-fewest assists per game in the league (20.7). You should especially take a look at the under on this prop if you’re on Miami to win this game (the Heat are 8-point faves), as Russell averages 4.7 assists per game in losses compared to 6.2 in wins.

Photo: Jonas Valanciunas.
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton — USA TODAY Sports.