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3 NBA Props for Tuesday: Korver Over/Under 10.5 Points?

May 15, 2018 4:10 PM EDT

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Tuesday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics beginning at 8:30 p.m. ET:

  • Al Horford (Boston) over/under 15.5 points
  • Kyle Korver (Cleveland) over/under 10.5 points
  • Marcus Morris (Boston) over/under 5.5 rebounds

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props  tool.

 

Al Horford Under 15.5 Points (-118 at BetOnline)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue’s decision to insert Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup had a lot to do with Thompson’s past success defending Horford:

“Looking at the statistics, over the last three years with at least 30 possessions [defending him], out of all the guys that have guarded Al Horford, Tristan is No. 1 in the league defending Al Horford,” Lue said. “So that’s a good thing, you know?”

During the regular season, Horford was held 7.2 points per 100 possessions below his season average when Thompson was on him, and in Game 1, Horford destroyed Kevin Love for 18 points in 31 possessions but was scoreless in 12 possessions when guarded by Thompson.

Kyle Korver Under 10.5 Points (-145 at Bovada)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Korver played five fewer minutes than George Hill and J.R. Smith in Game 1, and Thompson starting will likely cut into Korver’s playing time the most; Cleveland can’t afford to have Korver roasted defensively again to the tune of 11 points in 29 possessions by Jaylen Brown. Last time Thompson started, in Game 7 against Indiana in Round 1, Korver played just 22:38. Korver is averaging 10.1 points in 25.9 minutes per game in the playoffs, so potentially playing even fewer minutes than that is not good news for the over on this prop. It’s also worth noting that Korver’s 3-point shooting percentage dropped from 45.3% at home to 42.1% on the road during the regular season, and he’s scored six points or fewer in four of Cleveland’s six road playoff games thus far.

Marcus Morris Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130 at Bovada)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Morris entered the starting unit in Game 1 and saw increased playing time due to his ability to guard LeBron James, logging a playoff-high 34 minutes. Given the success he had — LeBron scored only 15 points on 5-of-16 shooting — Morris’ minutes are likely to remain above 30. He averaged 6.1 rebounds per game when playing 30-39 minutes during the regular season and pulled down 10 in Game 1.

All lines accurate as of 6:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 15.

Credit:

Cleveland Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue talks to guard Kyle Korver (26) during a break in the action against the Toronto Raptors during game one of the second round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Cleveland defeated Toronto in overtime. Credit: John E. Sokolowski – USA TODAY Sports

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