Bounceback Bucks: Milwaukee Has NBA’s Best ATS Record Following a Loss

May 23, 2019 09:15 PM EDT
Credit:

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34).

  • The Bucks are 22-2 straight up and 19-5 against the spread when coming off a loss, including 6-0 SU and ATS coming off a double-digit loss, covering the spread by 12.8 points per game.
  • Can Milwaukee keep that bounceback magic rolling on Thursday night against the Raptors in Game 5 (8:30 p.m. ET on TNT)?

For just the fifth time in franchise history and the first time since 1980, the Milwaukee Bucks won 60 games and earned the top-seed in the Eastern Conference behind their star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Entering the conference finals against the 2-seed Toronto Raptors, the Bucks had won eight of their nine playoff games by an average margin of 15.3 points per game.

As a 6.5-point home favorite in Game 1, the Bucks trailed much of the game until surging late in the fourth quarter to not only win, but cover the spread with a 108-100 victory. Then the Bucks overwhelmed the Raptors in Game 2 with a 125-103 win to take a 2-0 series lead back to Toronto.

Then came adversity…

In Game 3, the Bucks and Raptors went to double-overtime, where Toronto battled back and handed the Bucks just their second loss of the playoffs.

Entering Game 4, bettors, fans, oddsmakers — pretty much everyone outside of Toronto — were banking on a Bucks bounce back.

66% of the spread tickets and 65% of the money wagered were on the Bucks and oddsmakers moved the point spread from Raptors -2.5 in Game 3 to Bucks -3 in Game 4,  a 5.5-point move.

48 minutes later, the series was tied 2-2 and the Bucks had just their second “losing” streak of the entire season after losing by 18 points in Toronto.

Heading into Game 5 back in Milwaukee, it is still extremely important to remember how well the Bucks have played off of a loss, especially by double-digits.

The Bucks are now 22-2 (91.7%) straight up and 19-5 (79.2%) against the spread when coming off a loss, including 6-0 SU and ATS coming off a double-digit loss, covering the spread by 12.8 points per game.

If you compare the Bucks’ ATS win percentage after a loss this season to all other teams in our Bet Labs database, which goes back to the 2004-05 season, no team compares: Milwaukee’s 79.17% ATS win percentage is the highest of any team over that span, with the 66-win 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (feat. LeBron James) coming in a close second.

The only thing that really matters in betting is Return on Investment, and the 2018-19 Bucks’ ROI of 53.9% after a loss is the 2nd-highest among all 450 NBA teams in our database, behind just the 2008-09 Cavaliers at 55.6%.

Milwaukee’s 91.7% SU win percentage after a loss is also the highest among any team since 2004-05, with the 2012-13 Miami Heat (also feat. James) coming in a distant second followed by that 2008-09 Cavaliers team in third.

The Bucks will play their 25th game following a loss against the Raptors on Thursday night — a minuscule number considering Milwaukee was a top-seed and won 60 games. Of the 29 teams to play 25 or fewer games in this spot since 2004-05 in our Bet Labs database, the Bucks have the highest SU and ATS win percentages, total profit and most overall wins.

It’s safe to say that the Milwaukee Bucks have been the bounceback kings of the 2018-19 season.

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