Bucks vs. Raptors Game 4 Betting Preview: Will Kawhi & Co. Even the Series?

Bucks vs. Raptors Game 4 Betting Preview: Will Kawhi & Co. Even the Series? article feature image
Credit:

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2).

Game 4: Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors Betting Odds

  • Spread: Bucks -2
  • Over/Under: 216
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Bucks Lead 2-1

>> All odds as of Monday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


It took two overtimes, but the Raptors were able to hold home court in Game 3.

Will they tie up the series at home again in Game 4? Our experts weigh in.

Betting Trends to Know

Did you know? Overtime is where unders go to die. The Bucks-Raptors Game 3 total closed at 222. At the end of regulation, the teams had combined to score 192 points, but after double-overtime the over cashed. Since 2005, the over is 1,530-312-28 in overtime games and 332-6 when the game goes to two overtimes. – John Ewing

The Raptors are 2.5-point underdogs at home in Game 4. This is the first time in the playoffs Toronto has been a home dog this year. The Raptors went 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, including 1-2 SU and ATS as a dog to the Bucks. – Ewing

The Bucks lost Game 3 on the road against the Raptors. This season, no team has been better off a loss than Milwaukee. The Bucks are 22-1 straight-up (+15 point differential) and 19-4 ATS (+7.2 point differential) after a loss this season; they’re the most profitable team ATS in that spot. The Bucks are also 10-1 SU and ATS on the road after a loss this year, with their only loss coming against the Suns. – Evan Abrams

The Bucks led the NBA in Defensive Rating during the regular season this year, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions. In Game 3, the Bucks allowed 118 points on the road against the Raptors, the most points Milwaukee has allowed in the playoffs (though it did take two overtimes for Toronto to get there).

This season, the Bucks are 20-6 (76.9%) ATS after allowing 115 points or more in their previous game, covering the spread by 6.0 points per game. – Abrams


Locky: How I’m Betting Game 4


I’m writing this early Monday morning, which means Game 3 just ended a short time ago. It can be really easy to say, “OK, well now the series is different. OK, now Milwaukee is on the ropes a little. This changes everything.”

I can’t say that game made me MORE confident the Bucks will win the series, because being up 3-0 would make me more confident. But for Milwaukee to get absolutely nothing from its best three players and shoot 14-for-44 from 3 and get this result is incredible. It actually doesn’t really make any sense at all.

It speaks to the depth the Bucks have that playing George Hill and Malcolm Brogdon may really be better than playing Eric Bledsoe. The idea that a close game can be fashioned from these performances makes me reconsider my opinion of Milwaukee a little.

The Bucks’ long-term title hopes (as in beating Golden State in a week or so) will probably fall short because Khris Middleton and Bledsoe aren’t up to the challenge, but in this series the performance by Milwaukee’s ‘others’ has been so remarkable.

I like Milwaukee in Game 4. Clearly the market does, too, to a certain extent, because the side opened Bucks -1 and is now Bucks -2.

With the Bucks’ depth (and the way they used their bench in Game 3 specifically), the only minutes I’m really concerned about are Kawhi Leonard’s. And I still stand by my statement that he is not a robot, despite mounting evidence to the contrary. There are times where it matters that he basically never sits, game after game, against this type of team.

And with the Bucks playing what has to be their absolute worst possible game, getting nothing from any key contributor and still almost winning — it makes me think any type of slightly better performance will be enough Tuesday night. Milwaukee is the better and deeper team. — Ken Barkley


Notable Betting Systems for Tonight

The Bucks suffered a heartbreaking 118-112 double-overtime loss in Game 3 on Sunday. Tonight, they look to bounce back and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Both the public and betting history are on their side tonight.

Milwaukee opened as a short two-point road favorite for tonight’s pivotal Game 4 in Toronto. Currently 70% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars are laying the points with Giannis and company. This heavily lopsided action has forced oddsmakers to move the Bucks from -2 to -3.

The Bucks also match several profitable Bet Labs historical systems. Since 2015, favorites in the NBA playoffs getting more money than bets have gone 98-53 ATS (64.9%), winning +40 units with a 26.3% ROI and 3.31-point cover margin. This season, they’ve gone 16-7 ATS (70%).

If the favorite is getting more money than bets and also has line movement in their favor (Bucks -2 to -3 tonight), they’ve gone 55-37 ATS (59.8%) since 2015, including 10-3 ATS (77%) this postseason. – Josh Appelbaum


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.