Friday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: How to Bet the Raptors, Lowry in Game 7 (Sept. 11)

Credit:

Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Lowry

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Win-Loss (Win Pct)
Bet Quality of 10 775-572 (57%)
Bet Quality of 9 942-776 (54%)
Bet Quality of 8 1432-1263 (52%)

Friday’s player props come from both of the slate’s games:

  • Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets at 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT

NBA Player Prop Bets

Toronto Raptors, Kyle Lowry

The Prop: Over 6.5 assists (-110)

They really ought to have the Kyle Lowry statue built and erected already in Toronto. What else does the man have to do at this point? Lowry is the heart and soul of these Raptors and he’s also their best player.

Lowry had an incredible performance with the season on the line in Game 6, scoring 33 points with 8 rebounds and 6 assists in 53.5 minutes, with a highlight reel of big shots and effort plays.

Now he gets to do it all again. You’d think Lowry will be exhausted, but this guy just doesn’t seem to tire. He was among the league leaders in MPG in the regular season, and he’s played 40.0, 46.5, 43.8, and 53.5 minutes in the three competitive games this series. He’s not going to sit in the second half, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock for him to just play the full 48, with Game 1 of the ECF not until Tuesday.

None of that means Lowry will hit the assist total, of course. He’s averaging 6.8 APG this series and gone under this number the last two games, but over it in three of the four competitive games. Lowry has been the man hitting the big shots lately, but he’s going to need help from his teammates and, blowout or not, he’ll be out there fighting.

With the minutes load Lowry is playing, it’ll honestly be difficult for him not to hit this number. We’re projecting him at 8.1 assists and rating this a 10 out of 10. I’ll play to -145.

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Toronto Raptors, Marc Gasol

The Prop: Under 5.5 points (+110)

Look, it brings me no great job to bet against Marc Gasol, but a man’s gotta get paid. Gasol is not the man for this Boston series. His foot speed just can’t keep up with the Celtics’ guards on switches, and he’s been marginalized greatly as the series has gone on.

After playing 24.7 minutes per game in Games 1 through 4, Gasol dropped to under 15 MPG the last two games. Even with Pascal Siakam really struggling down the stretch in a must-win game, Gasol never got the call, not even when Toronto was exhausted in double overtime. He’s getting 15 minutes now and that’s it — and he may not even get that.

Gasol isn’t a scorer anyway, and he’s probably only going to get a few shots. Basically you’re fading him hitting two threes here. He did that in Game 6 but hadn’t done it the rest of the playoffs and is shooting only 20% behind the arc for the playoffs. Grab this at  +EV odds before they take it off the board.

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Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic

The Prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (-110)

We need a little action in the early game too, right? I’ve profited off Jokic’s rebounding several games running now as oddsmakers continue to refuse to budge off this 10.5 line for his rebounds.

Jokic had only three rebounds in Game 1 when the Nuggets came out flat and without energy 48 hours after a brutal Game 7. He’s had 18, 12, and 11 rebounds in the three games since, playing at least 37 minutes in all three games and looking like a superstar and maybe even the best player in the series.

The Clippers really don’t have a match for Jokic. Ivica Zubac can hold his own a bit but can’t stay out of foul trouble or on the court, and Jokic is pretty typically the biggest player and best rebounder on the court. He’s averaged 11.3 RPG these last two playoffs, and in a win-or-go-home game, he will play every minute possible.

We’re projecting Jokic at 13.1 rebounds, close to his average the last three games, which gives plenty of margin for error. I’m riding Jokic hard at 10.5 boards, as high as -145 if needed.

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