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Brandon Anderson's Picks
Today
SGA -1.5 ast vs Nembhard-105
OKC
111
104
IND
2u
FINAL 6/14
Nembhard assists have faded hard, 6-4-1 and the potentials even harder 12-5-3. He’s turning it over too much and using al his energy defending, so Hali TJ are getting all the assists. Looks like just 2-3 most games forward barring a big change.
SGA assists have swung around a lot but the potentials are there and he gets dimes when OKC wins. If you like Indiana here, probably skip this one. If you don’t have this H2H you can also just play Nembhard u4.5a if you like, or SGA/jdub +155 vs Hali/Nemb. You can also play it straight at -250 if you prefer.
35
SGA G4 assists leader+280
OKC
111
104
IND
0.5u
FINAL 6/14
SGA assists have swung around a lot but the potentials are there and he gets dimes when OKC wins so this is a good aggressive proxy for an OKC win since Hali assists also are 2-4 lower in losses. Still think SGA is live for series assists leader if your book is offering a long number, even from 8 back. OKC will adjust and get SGA on the ball, and I expect the MVP to bounce back in a big way.
78
Pending
DDV o6.5 3PA+110
MIN
103
118
OKC
0.75u
FINAL 5/23
DDV took 12 3s in G1 and is clearly a big part of the rotation and plan. When he plays 27+ minutes this season, he has 7+ 3pa in 23/32 games, 72% hit rate to this, averaging 8.4 attempts. If you can bet attempts, we don’t have to worry about makes. If you prefer makes, go for the outliers I’m case the volume is high and the shots fall.
32
Mitch is a rebounding monster, especially oreb. He’s only 2 reb behind Hart and KAT, the only competition here, and starting comes at the direct expense of both. More Mitch means less Hart minutes, and it also means KAT further from the basket on both ends. There’s injury risk as the minutes ramp up but I’d make him the favorite as a starter so this is a bad number heading into G3 in a starting role he could keep. Should be the favorite for G3 leader too, see if your book has the market available
67
All 5 Pacers to score 10+ pts+240
OKC
107
116
IND
0.5u
FINAL 6/12
This has hit both Finals games, with 4/5 starters at 14+ and one just getting over at 10 G1 and 11 G2. Has hit in 11/18 Pacers playoff games (61%) with their balance. Note that it’s only 1/5 in Indy losses but 77% in wins, so don’t play if you like OKC to win G3.
25
Hartenstein G3 rebounds leader+300
OKC
107
116
IND
0.5u
FINAL 6/12
As discussed on Buckets. iHart and Siakam dead tied for lead in both reb and chances but iHart has all the upside if his playing time increases at all, plus he’ll also improve on 18% contested reb. This is looking like a h2h vs Siakam and we have pascal +700 pre series, but this is a good standalone bet too cuz iHart should be the favorite and probably a minus number. Worth playing G3 leader too, hit G2 and should be the favorite.
86
Haliburton u9.5 APG-150
3u
Fade Hali assists is my top read of the series. Just 5.5 APG vs OKC this season, worst vs any team. Thunder have so many tough defenders to throw at him (Dort has erased his usg) and are willing to give the switch so he can’t pick apart with passing. 11.5 potentials also his lowest vs any team. Down over 40% apg and 4+ potentials a huge drop, similar to rd2 vs Cle when he didn’t even lead Pacers in assists. That’s consistent with what OKC is doing to star opp playmakers: Jokic -11, Ja -10, Ant -5 points creates vs season avg.
Nembhard had 7a both OKC games and avg 15.5 potentials, basically the usual Hali #. He led assists vs Cavs and could be a shock leader here with a surprisingly high ceiling. Be sure to shop around for series leader pricing.
106
Nembhard assists leader vs OKC+15000
0.5u
Fade Hali assists is my top read of the series. Just 5.5 APG vs OKC this season, worst vs any team. Thunder have so many tough defenders to throw at him (Dort has erased his usg) and are willing to give the switch so he can’t pick apart with passing. 11.5 potentials also his lowest vs any team. Down over 40% apg and 4+ potentials a huge drop, similar to rd2 vs Cle when he didn’t even lead Pacers in assists. That’s consistent with what OKC is doing to star opp playmakers: Jokic -11, Ja -10, Ant -5 points creates vs season avg.
Nembhard had 7a both OKC games and avg 15.5 potentials, basically the usual Hali #. He led assists vs Cavs and could be a shock leader here with a surprisingly high ceiling. Be sure to shop around for series leader pricing.
97
Nembhard ast H2H vs JDub+175
0.5u
Nembhard had 7a both OKC games and avg 15.5 potentials, basically the usual Hali #. He led assists vs Cavs and could be a shock leader here with a surprisingly high ceiling. Be sure to shop around for series leader pricing.
JDub usually around 4.5-6apg, but Nembhard has two series last two playoffs over 7. Came 1a away from 5+ every game vs Cleveland. Foul trouble and blowouts likely sink 5a every game but the number is too long.
77
SGA assists leader vs IND+500
2u
Fade Hali assists is my top read of the series. Just 5.5 APG vs OKC this season, worst vs any team. Thunder have so many tough defenders to throw at him (Dort has erased his usg) and are willing to give the switch so he can’t pick apart with passing. 11.5 potentials also his lowest vs any team. Down over 40% apg and 4+ potentials a huge drop, similar to rd2 vs Cle when he didn’t even lead Pacers in assists. That’s consistent with what OKC is doing to star opp playmakers: Jokic -11, Ja -10, Ant -5 points creates vs season avg.
SGA 8apg on 12.5 potentials vs Indy last 2 years with 10-7-7, should be able to shred this D esp with Chet spacing it out. Could be even better if Carlisle throws zone or kitchen sink at SGA to force others to beat them. With Thunder expected to outscore Indy, maybe by a lot, he should be series leader favorite for assists. I make 6a every game around +175.
149
SGA o6.5 APG vs IND-120
0.5u
Fade Hali assists is my top read of the series. Just 5.5 APG vs OKC this season, worst vs any team. Thunder have so many tough defenders to throw at him (Dort has erased his usg) and are willing to give the switch so he can’t pick apart with passing. 11.5 potentials also his lowest vs any team. Down over 40% apg and 4+ potentials a huge drop, similar to rd2 vs Cle when he didn’t even lead Pacers in assists. That’s consistent with what OKC is doing to star opp playmakers: Jokic -11, Ja -10, Ant -5 points creates vs season avg.
SGA 8apg on 12.5 potentials vs Indy last 2 years with 10-7-7, should be able to shred this D esp with Chet spacing it out. Could be even better if Carlisle throws zone or kitchen sink at SGA to force others to beat them. With Thunder expected to outscore Indy, maybe by a lot, he should be series leader favorite for assists. I make 6a every game around +175.
48
OKC 25+ win any game vs IND+250
1u
Thunder have multiple wins each series by 19+, so that’s half their playoff wins. They’ve won by 24+ over a quarter of their wins this season. Pacers have lost by 16+ each series with avg margin of loss 15+ and lost by 21 to OKC in season. Blowout always in play here.
29
Hali & Siakam 60 pts combined any game vs OKC+950
0.25u
Fun nibble that also works as a nice hedge to the strong OKC position. Only has to be 2% likely in 5g to be worth think price, so even 4% in 6g is more like +400. Duo has already had 52-52-53-62 this postseason. Don’t love the matchup for either vs OKC but this number is bad even then and terrible if Indy finds answers.
68
OKC to win G2 & series-200
3u
This will be my biggest title bet of the season. OKC will be fine. Just a wild shot making outlier G1 both directions. Thunder will bounce back G2 as huge favs and won’t lose again at home, so win road win still does the trick. You won’t want OKC if they lose G2 anyway so betting the combo parlay here is a great way to get a big advantage on a -325 ticket elsewhere.
58
OKC +2.5 series vs IND-1200
3u
OKC needs 2 wins for this to cash. In other words, Indy either needs to sweep or close out in 5 in OKC to make this ticket lose. Just a bad price, less than half the market elsewhere. Might seem crazy to lay -1200 but this is a 95-96% bet, so by far the most likely scenario is effectively a one week loan with an 8% ROI.
34
SGA H2H series reb vs Turner+280
3u
I just don’t understand this line at all. SGA is rebounding well this series as expected, 64% of his chances, 6rpg, in the mix for series lead. Turner is fading HARD. He had 9r G1 but 5 of those were oreb. He’s faded from 15-11-10 in reb chances and 9-4-2 reb, just 2r in 30’ G3. He’s just not rebounding well vs OKC and not physical enough and his minutes are fading a touch and 11mpg behind SGA.
Besides, SGA is juiced to o5.5 and Turner heavily juiced u5.5 game to game AND Shai is ahead by 3r right now! I just don’t get this line at all, I project SGA 1-2 rpg ahead of Turner each game forward and he’s already up 3. Should definitely be favored, so this is one of my fav bets of the Finals.
4
SGA o5.5 rpg vs IND-125
1.5u
I expect the series to trend small. Both team may prefer less iHart since he hurts Indy rebounding but also OKC will be happy to unleash Chet at the 5 (or smaller) to stretch Turner away from basket and let SGA attack paint. That could setup like last round for OKC where rebounds are more spread out
SGA 8 rpg last 2 seasons vs Indy at 65% reb chance, and he’s gone from 5.3 the last two regular seasons to 6.3 in the playoffs. Just a higher effort plus minutes boost that’s meant regular rebounding increase and could put him right in mix for series leader
Turner 8rpg vs OKC this year with Chet out banging vs iHart but 3r both Chet games last year spaced away from the hoop. His rpg depends heavily on matchup: 7.2 vs Cleveland double bigs, 3.9 rest of playoffs. I have SGA projected a couple rebounds ahead, this more like -200 v clear favorite vs Turner
48
SGA rpg h2h vs Turner -115
1.5u
I expect the series to trend small. Both team may prefer less iHart since he hurts Indy rebounding but also OKC will be happy to unleash Chet at the 5 (or smaller) to stretch Turner away from basket and let SGA attack paint. That could setup like last round for OKC where rebounds are more spread out
SGA 8 rpg last 2 seasons vs Indy at 65% reb chance, and he’s gone from 5.3 the last two regular seasons to 6.3 in the playoffs. Just a higher effort plus minutes boost that’s meant regular rebounding increase and could put him right in mix for series leader
Turner 8rpg vs OKC this year with Chet out banging vs iHart but 3r both Chet games last year spaced away from the hoop. His rpg depends heavily on matchup: 7.2 vs Cleveland double bigs, 3.9 rest of playoffs. I have SGA projected a couple rebounds ahead, this more like -200 v clear favorite vs Turner
61
SGA reb leader vs IND+2200
0.5u
I expect the series to trend small. Both team may prefer less iHart since he hurts Indy rebounding but also OKC will be happy to unleash Chet at the 5 (or smaller) to stretch Turner away from basket and let SGA attack paint. That could setup like last round for OKC where rebounds are more spread out
SGA 8 rpg last 2 seasons vs Indy at 65% reb chance, and he’s gone from 5.3 the last two regular seasons to 6.3 in the playoffs. Just a higher effort plus minutes boost that’s meant regular rebounding increase and could put him right in mix for series leader
Turner 8rpg vs OKC this year with Chet out banging vs iHart but 3r both Chet games last year spaced away from the hoop. His rpg depends heavily on matchup: 7.2 vs Cleveland double bigs, 3.9 rest of playoffs. I have SGA projected a couple rebounds ahead, this more like -200 v clear favorite vs Turner
78
Siakam reb leader vs IND+700
0.5u
I expect the series to trend small. Both team may prefer less iHart since he hurts Indy rebounding but also OKC will be happy to unleash Chet at the 5 (or smaller) to stretch Turner away from basket and let SGA attack paint. That could setup like last round for OKC where rebounds are more spread out
Siakam honestly not even a great rebounder but might just be right place right time. He’s been good vs OKC last 2 seasons with 11-5-10-9 reb, 8.8 rpg with an impressive 75% snag rate. Should be among top rebounders just by game script most nights and series.
79
Siakam o5.5 rpg vs OKC-130
1.3u
I expect the series to trend small. Both team may prefer less iHart since he hurts Indy rebounding but also OKC will be happy to unleash Chet at the 5 (or smaller) to stretch Turner away from basket and let SGA attack paint. That could setup like last round for OKC where rebounds are more spread out
Siakam honestly not even a great rebounder but might just be right place right time. He’s been good vs OKC last 2 seasons with 11-5-10-9 reb, 8.8 rpg with an impressive 75% snag rate. Should be among top rebounders just by game script most nights and series. 4+ reb 92% of games on season sets stable floor
55
Siakam 4 reb each game vs OKC+275
2u
I expect the series to trend small. Both team may prefer less iHart since he hurts Indy rebounding but also OKC will be happy to unleash Chet at the 5 (or smaller) to stretch Turner away from basket and let SGA attack paint. That could setup like last round for OKC where rebounds are more spread out
Siakam honestly not even a great rebounder but might just be right place right time. He’s been good vs OKC last 2 seasons with 11-5-10-9 reb, 8.8 rpg with an impressive 75% snag rate. Should be among top rebounders just by game script most nights and series. 4+ reb 92% of games on season sets stable floor
41
SGA pts / Siakam reb / SGA ast leaders+3000
0.25u
SGA points should be free, SGA assists should be the favorite, and Siakam a great reb price so just sprinkling the trio parlay offering at dk
34
Chet 3s leader vs IND+3000
0.25u
3s market looks wide open. I don’t see anyone averaging even 3/g. Hali may not have space to get his shots up and Dort can’t hit shots on road and is the only other guy I have projected over 6 att/g.
Short series could mean this is like 10-12 3s all series, which means variance and a few long shot darts on 3 guys I project in the 4-6 att range per game. Just hope one gets hot.
100
Siakam 3s leader vs OKC+4000
0.25u
3s market looks wide open. I don’t see anyone averaging even 3/g. Hali may not have space to get his shots up and Dort can’t hit shots on road and is the only other guy I have projected over 6 att/g.
Short series could mean this is like 10-12 3s all series, which means variance and a few long shot darts on 3 guys I project in the 4-6 att range per game. Just hope one gets hot.
101
Nembhard 3s leader vs OKC+3300
0.25u
3s market looks wide open. I don’t see anyone averaging even 3/g. Hali may not have space to get his shots up and Dort can’t hit shots on road and is the only other guy I have projected over 6 att/g.
Short series could mean this is like 10-12 3s all series, which means variance and a few long shot darts on 3 guys I project in the 4-6 att range per game. Just hope one gets hot.
98
Obi Toppin 3s leader +3000
0.25u
Taking one more long shot on a market that still feels very open. Obi is only one off the lead in makes and two back in attempts so this number is just too long for a guy that’s gonna keep getting open looks. Unlikely but number is too long.
52
Hartenstein rebounds leader+180
1u
As discussed on Buckets. iHart and Siakam dead tied for lead in both reb and chances but iHart has all the upside if his playing time increases at all, plus he’ll also improve on 18% contested reb. This is looking like a h2h vs Siakam and we have pascal +700 pre series, but this is a good standalone bet too cuz iHart should be the favorite and probably a minus number. Worth playing G3 leader too, hit G2 and should be the favorite.
43
SGA 8apg+1000
0.25u
SGA jumped 11 to 15 potentials G2, even without those final minutes, and 3 to 8 assists. So he’s still 5 back from 8apg but has a shot to get there. Mostly, this is just a terrible number- specifically because 10apg is +700 at multiple books, including DK where this is +1000. It’s unlikely but not +1000 unlikely.
38
Hartenstein Series Rebounds Leader+800
0.25u
Leone Fiebich Most Improved Player of the Year+6000
0.5u
Tailing @TurveyBets fav 3 wnba futures, listen to his case on WNBA Buckets 🪣
Sophie Cunningham Sixth Player of the Year+1100
0.5u
Tailing @TurveyBets fav 3 wnba futures, listen to his case on WNBA Buckets 🪣
Napheesa Collier MVP+475
1u
Tailing @TurveyBets fav 3 wnba futures, listen to his case on WNBA Buckets 🪣
Phee lit it up all summer with Unrivaled but left the playoffs disappointed so maybe she’ll parlay that into an MVP breakout
Futures
Los Angeles Lakers+2100
2024-25 NBA Championship - To Win
1u
Let’s get Buckets 🪣 check the Luka-Davis reaction pod… YOLO. You will not be mad you have a 21-1 ticket on Luka & LeBron in this West climate.
146
San Francisco 49ers+2000
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
1u
49ers as next year’s Eagles? My first 2026 Super Bowl pick Hot Read 🔥: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick
99
Seattle Seahawks+7000
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
Next year’s Vikings? Elite D, great O weapons & new OC Kubiak elevates O: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick
75
Kawhi Leonard+14000
2024-25 NBA Playoff Series - Finals - MVP
0.25u
Check Futures Friday Buckets 3/28 🪣. I just can’t quit Kawhi, this is a bomb but a bad number if this happens to be his one healthy stretch once every five seasons. Clips heavily matchup dependent but there’s a path and he’s a top 5 playoff player if healthy.
37
Kristaps Porziņģis+5500
2024-25 NBA Playoff Series - Finals - MVP
0.5u
Buckets 5% draft 🪣 we’ve already seen Celtics MVP votes go plurality and not necessarily the best player, only has to win MVP <20% of Cs finals wins and would be key esp vs OKC, could even be their most important player. This is a ticket you’ll be glad to have an a month when they are playing in ECF
60
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander+150
2024-25 NBA Playoff Series - Finals - MVP
1.5u
Just talked this through on Buckets. 🪣 if we think the West is heavily favorites in the Finals but Denver is too banged up and exhausted to go another month, that leaves OKC MIN and these two winning FMVP acts as a proxy. Taking advantage of a bad SGA price we may never see again, plus Ant, gives us implied -114 for what should effectively be OKC or MIN to in the title. Either one will be favored WAY more than that in a Finals matchup.
53
Anthony Edwards+650
2024-25 NBA Playoff Series - Finals - MVP
1.5u
Just talked this through on Buckets. 🪣 if we think the West is heavily favorites in the Finals but Denver is too banged up and exhausted to go another month, that leaves OKC MIN and these two winning FMVP acts as a proxy. Taking advantage of a bad SGA price we may never see again, plus Ant, gives us implied -114 for what should effectively be OKC or MIN to in the title. Either one will be favored WAY more than that in a Finals matchup.
65
Matthew Stafford+5000
2025 NFL MVP
0.5u
MVP requires stats, wins, and narrative. Rams offense should be far healthier + Davante Adams, which could mean huge numbers and a push into top 5 all time pass yards, plus big wins and a top 2 seed if the young defensive front continues to improve. Would be a crowning HOF achievement at his age and an obvious media narrative boost. No reason a QB this good on a team this talented to be priced this long. Should be half this number max.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-picks-best-5000-long-shot-on-board
101
Dylan Harper+3500
2025 NBA #3 Draft Pick
0.25u
No intel here, just nibbling a long shot. Harper definitely isn’t a clean fit in San Antonio. What if Spurs don’t want him? Or just evaluate someone else better? Or a better fit with Wemby? Or trade down with a team that wants someone else?
Philly at 3 badly needs a creator so it’s hard to imagine him falling further. This is basically a bet on Harper not going #2. Always bet on uncertainty in the draft.
41
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3-1-0 | 75% | 0.87u |
| Last 7 Days | 6-6-0 | 50% | 2.09u |
| Last 30 Days | 67-120-0 | 36% | 87.29u |
| All Time | 2575-3346-98 | 43% | 822.21u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1082-1393-30 | 43% | 409.60u |
| NBA | 1282-1654-61 | 43% | 317.19u |
| NCAAB | 150-211-5 | 41% | 68.78u |
| NCAAF | 31-25-1 | 54% | 17.94u |
| Champions | 6-4-1 | 55% | 7.98u |
| WNBA | 5-4-0 | 56% | 7.32u |
| MLS | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.66u |
| ATP | 1-3-0 | 25% | 1.13u |
| La Liga | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.04u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.01u |
| World Cup | 3-9-0 | 25% | -2.70u |
| Premier League | 3-14-0 | 18% | -8.91u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Bet the Texans to go from worst to first in the division, and even doubled down with a Will Anderson DROY cherry on top. Joe Flacco CPOY +25000 and Nuggets over Heat +1600 exact outcome were fun, too!
Most Heartbreaking Bet
MVP bets. Tom Brady +1400 in 2021, odds-on favorite in December, but shutout vs. Saints on SNF. Nikola Jokic +900 in 2023, rightful leader all the way, but the moron voters get bored and go with Embiid last minute. Brock Purdy +5000 in 2024, odds-on favorite on Christmas, but the voters are too proud to vote for him or Dak. You're killin' me, Smalls!
Specialties
- Futures
- NFL Picks (every team, every game!)
- NBA Spreads & Props
- Escalator bets
- Long Shots