More from Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson's Picks
Today
Pending
Highest scoring quarter: 4th+225
GB
26
34
DEN
0.5u
FINAL 12/14
This is another game I make nearly a coin flip.
It's clear the Packers offense and Denver defense are each team's better units, so that matches up well, and there are some questions about the other units on each side. Denver's offense is actually trending up, fringe top 10 by DVOA over the last six games, and Bo Nix's advanced metrics are looking much better than they did early this season too.
That Broncos offense has struggled early in games though. It's bottom 10 by DVOA in each of the first three quarters before leaping to 7th in the fourth quarter, and the Packers offense leads the league in that fourth-quarter metric.
That matches the eye test. Both coaches play conservative football for much of the game before finally taking the training wheels off late and letting the offense do what it needs to do to get over the line.
The Packers lead the league in fourth quarter scoring at 9.5 PPG, and the Broncos aren't far behind at 8.3 (6th). Packers games are also a league-best 10-3 to the over (77%). Give me the fourth quarter over 11.5 (FanDuel).
Some books offer other fun fourth quarter lines, since we'll be locked in late on this one anyway.
I like betting the fourth quarter to be the highest scoring quarter at +225 (DraftKings). It's a fun bet and could mean some fireworks late, and in a game that leans under overall, just the over 11.5 may well hit that anyway.
I also like parlaying that fourth quarter over 11.5 with a game under 42.5 as a negatively-correlated SGP at +430 (DraftKings), but don't go crazy since it's really threading the needle on a game script.
30
Broncos to win from behind +170
JAC
34
20
DEN
0.5u
FINAL 12/21
We bet Broncos -2.5 on last week's Lookahead and it already hit the key number by Sunday night after Denver beat Green Bay convincingly.
It hasn't gone far, though, because the Jaguars had a blowout win themselves last week and are one of the hottest teams in the league, top three by DVOA over the last six weeks. Liam Coen's once-rejuvenated rushing attack has totally disappeared, but Jacksonville ranks top five in passing attack and in both rushing and passing defense during that stretch by DVOA.
This is where context matters, though. During that stretch, the Jags demolished the terrible Titans and Jets, and they eked by the struggling Cardinals in overtime. The big wins raising all the metrics were comfortable wins against the Chargers and Colts, but both those teams have been besieged by injuries and Jacksonville caught them at just the right time, getting "credit" for wins probably not as good as they look.
Then again, it's not like Denver has pulled away from the crowd.
Denver has 12 wins, but 11 of them have come from behind. The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in the first half but 9-5 ATS after the break, doing their best work late.
The team has been especially lackluster in the first quarter, where the defense ranks below average by DVOA before being elite the rest of the game, and the offense ranks bottom five while it leaps to top 10 after that.
Just look at the scores of the last six first quarters in Denver games (with their score first): 0-3, 7-7, 3-0, 6-3, 0-7, and 0-3. That's a meager 2.7 PPG, and the Broncos led only twice, both times by a field goal.
By contrast, Jacksonville has played its best ball early in games. Liam Coen's scripted plays are working and Trevor Lawrence is playing great ball early. The Jags are 9-5 ATS in the first half, and they rank top five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter.
I still like Denver in the game, but I like Jacksonville early. I'll play the Jaguars first quarter moneyline at +125 (bet365). I far prefer that to Jags +0.5 at -130, no need to pay 55 cents to win a tie instead of pushing it.
That also sets up a familiar script for the Broncos, so bet Denver at +170 to win from behind (DraftKings), which has cashed in all but one Broncos victory. You can also parlay Jaguars 1Q ML with a Broncos win and get a negative correlation boost at +365 (DraftKings).
35
Rasheen Ali 3+ receptions+475
NE
28
24
BAL
0.5u
FINAL 12/22
I love to invest in long-shot name props, and Rasheen Ali is my guy on Sunday night.
Derrick Henry might finally be cooked. He's played only 82 snaps in the last three games, just 45%. Ravens fans want more Keaton Mitchell but he's playing only 8-to-12 snaps a game, and Justice Hill was getting 15-to-20 but he's on IR.
Enter Marshall sophomore Rasheen Ali, who has the best PFF grade for any RB on this team and has become the third down back for John Harbaugh. Ali has played 29, 27, and 11 snaps the last three games — just five per game less than Henry, and he actually led the team in RB snaps in one of those!
His low snap count came in last week's shutout win, so if the Patriots put the Ravens in passing situations, that should be even better for Ali. New England allows the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far this season but the third-most receptions to them, driven by game script. New England has allowed 6+ RB receptions in over half its games (8 of 14), including games with eight, nine, nine, and 11 RB catches.
Because Ali is mostly unknown, we're getting some juicy numbers, and I'm taking the full Rasheen Ali escalator.
Start with 2+ catches at +155 (bet365), a number Ali already hit each of the last two weeks, and then play 3+ receptions at +475 along with 4+ at +1200.
Ali also had a 30-yard catch last week, so let's play 30+ yards at +1000 and touch 40+ at +1650 too (all at bet365).
If New England gets its early lead, we could see a surprising amount of Rasheen Ali, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him catch four or five passes and make a real difference.
38
I don't trust either of these teams much. The Bucs have won one of their last seven, and Carolina's -67 point differential would be the worst ever by a playoff team.
I'm not playing a side here, but I'd lean Bucs if forced to play. Even playing hurt, I still trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young, and I'll bet on Tampa's veteran postseason experience. Still, I'm not interested at Bucs -3 at the key number.
But what if the Bucs win?
Tampa Bay would still need a Saints win in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch the division and make the postseason, but the Saints have been the best team in the division for half a season already, so the Bucs should like their chances.
At that point the Bucs get a home playoff game against, most likely, the Seahawks or Rams. And that's where I'm ready to pounce.
Seattle and LA are my top two power-rated teams in the league by a wide margin, and whoever makes the playoffs from the NFC South will be my worst playoff team. I already bet Seattle -6.5 in Tampa Bay on the contingent Lookahead line at FanDuel.
I'd make both the Seahawks and Rams more than a touchdown favorite in Tampa. If the Bucs do win this weekend and get help from the Saints, I think they get blown out in the playoffs anyway.
I'm betting the Bucs' "stage of elimination" to lose in the Wild Card Round at +500 (DraftKings). That's priced at 17% and I make it around 22%, simply parlaying three teams I like better in their matchup.
If Tampa Bay does survive the weekend, this is suddenly a +500 moneyline ticket on Tampa's opponent next week — juicy!
52
James Cook: NFL rushing yards leader+300
0.5u
Initially, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is a remarkable 18-3 ATS (86%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points in the regular or postseason, winning nine of the last 14 such games outright — including just last week.
But this might be the game that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired.
Cincinnati's offense just doesn't optimize itself, and that could be a death blow against a Buffalo defense that's gettable, but only if you attack its weaknesses.
Buffalo is bad against motion and playaction, but the Bengals rarely attack that way. Cincinnati loves to play out of 11 personnel, second most of any team, but the Bills rank top-five in EPA per play against base. Buffalo prefers to play a lot of two-high safety looks and rank top-three in EPA defending that way; Cincinnati faces two-high looks more than any team and ranks 30th in EPA against it.
The Bengals simply aren't getting to any easy buttons with this offense and making things simpler. Buffalo also ranks top five in pressure rate while Cincinnati has struggled all year against pressure.
You beat the Bills by running on them, and Cincinnati is a pretty good running team! But the Bengals don't often commit to the run game enough, stubbornly dropping Joe Burrow back out of the shotgun and letting him chuck it all game.
The truth is that both run defenses in this game are awful, as bad as anyone in football outside of the Giants. But only one of these offenses commits to the run.
Just look at the Bills against the Steelers last week. Josh Allen was under two yards ADOT for the game and got the ball out quickly when they threw it, instead leading James Cook pound the rock all night. With Buffalo's offensive line banged up, running the ball is actually a way to protect the line since it's easier to run block. Allen doesn't have to be the MVP if Cook just does all the dirty work for him.
The Bills are 6-0 this season when Cook has 19 or more carries; they're just 2-4 when he doesn't, with both wins coming in wild shootouts. When Cook does have 19+ carries, he averages 23.3 rushes for 144 yards, with at least 108 yards in every game and six TDs in all.
Both offenses should want to grind out long, sustained drives to keep the dangerous opposing QB on the sidelines, but only Buffalo really commits to doing that.
The Bengals have allowed 14+ carries to a runner 10 times. They've allowed six RBs to run for 93+ yards and three to hit 125 or more. Only one RB had over 18 carries, but that was a breakout game for Kyle Monangai with 26/176, and Buffalo funnels its touches through Cook.
A big James Cook game here should proxy as a Bills win. Just look at his numbers in three of the last four Buffalo wins: 32/144 last week against Pittsburgh, 27/114 against the Chiefs in a similar script to this one, and 19/216 against Carolina with two TDs.
We're taking the Cook escalator all the way up.
Start with over 95.5 rushing yards (Fanatics). The Bengals allow 153 YPG on the ground.
And rather than play over 19.5 rushing attempts, let's just assume if Cook gets those 20+ carries that he'll also be productive. It's the terrible Bengals defense, after all, and Cook averages 23/144 with 19+ carries!
Play 120+ yards at +235 along with 140+ yards at +475 (bet365), and let's also touch 28+ rushing attempts at +1360 (DraftKings) since he's had 27 and 32 rushes in Buffalo's last two wins.
I'm also playing Cook at +300 (BetRivers) to take the rushing crown. He's only 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who has a brutal closing schedule, and Cook may very well have the lead after Sunday if he has a big game against the Bengals.
19
Trey McBride receiving TDs leader+8000
0.25u
Week 11 Extra Point:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks
60
Derrick Henry to lead NFL in rush yards+1400
0.25u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down.
Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon.
Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons.
We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time.
It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.
17
One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not.
That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick.
Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game.
One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans.
If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses.
I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel.
One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.
46
One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not.
That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick.
Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game.
One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans.
If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses.
I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel.
One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.
51
LA -10-105
LA
@
CAR
1.5u
01/10 9:30 PM
🔥 Wild Card Rd Hot Read 🔥
148
CHI -104
GB
@
CHI
0.25u
01/11 1:00 AM
🔥 Wild Card Rd Hot Read 🔥
(already bet before Sunday, adding a touch so you get the notification)
98
Bears ML vs Packers-106
1u
Wild Card Round Lookahead contingent line, per Action Network podcast
47
Under 46.5-110
SF
@
PHI
1.5u
01/11 9:30 PM
We didn’t get to go through all the games on the pod but this was another early Hot Read. I have four strong unders trends, plus Philly game 7-1 to under since bye (not counting wk18 rest) averaging <34. Niners offense has been elite vs bad D but poor vs even avg D. Hoped for 47 cuz key but total is slipping so grabbing now.
130
Steelers exact stage of elimination: Wildcard Rd+290
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
47
NFC Championship: 49ers over Packers+5000
0.1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
28
Trent Williams: Protector of the Year+1100
1u
New award!! Williams is one of the best to ever play on the offensive line. And even at age 37, he still hasn't lost a step. He is as good and as valuable as anyone when he's out there — and noticeably just as valuable when he's not.
Williams misses a few games each season but for an award without stats, that's probably not as important. He's arguably the most valuable player on the 49ers, a team capable of winning 12-plus games and making a push for the NFC 1-seed, and that's for a team without a clear MVP candidate, which makes this an excellent way of rewarding a great San Francisco season.
If nothing else, this could just be a legacy pick for Williams. Who better to win the first Protector of the Year award than the guy who plays the most valuable position on the line just about as well as anyone who's ever played it?
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds
80
Joe Thuney: Protector of the Year+4000
0.25u
New award!! Thuney is widely regarded as one of the league's best guards, and he's got an easy narrative case.
He already filled in admirably at both C and LT for the Chiefs en route to a Super Bowl berth last season — now he moves to the Bears, who could see a huge bump in line play and win profile. He might even get double credit if Kansas City's line falls off some without him.
Thuney has committed five penalties the last three seasons combined. In nine NFL seasons, he's played in six Super Bowls with four rings and four All-Pro berths — and two missed starts.
If Chicago makes a leap with an improved line, Thuney would be an excellent candidate at a pretty long number.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds
62
Creed Humphrey: Protector of the Year+3300
0.25u
New award!! There are two linemen at each position on the six-man panel, which means two centers — the one position there's not multiple of on the line. And with Frank Ragnow retired, Humphrey is probably the most surefire consensus best in the NFL at his position.
Many centers are great at run blocking, but Humphrey is one of the few who's also great at pass blocking. Life will be much harder this year without Joe Thuney next to him, though.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds
59
NFL Coach of the Year: DeMeco Ryans+6500
1u
If Houston does push to the top of the AFC, DeMeco Ryans will get credit for the defense and could even get this as something of a career achievement award for the three-year arc of a team that won just three games in 2022.
Ryans is certainly a longer shot, but he's also a great way to invest in a post-hype Texans team that's quietly become a bit underrated and overlooked.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds
131
NFL Coach of the Year: Brian Schottenheimer+3000
0.25u
POST PARSONS UPDATE: no longer interested in investing, cash out if possible
What if Schottenheimer is a decent or even good head coach? What if he puts together an innovative offense and utilizes exciting young names on his staff like Klayton Adams and Ken Dorsey? What if Matt Eberflus puts a talented defense back together?
Dallas could easily push for a division crown and then the sky's the limit in the NFC. This is a contrarian bet against myself. It's a great way to invest in the Cowboys this season at a supremely discounted price.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds
93
NFL Asst Coach of the Year: Zac Robinson+6000
0.5u
Robinson quietly did a terrific job coaxing an above average Offensive DVOA out of this team last year, considering he had to do so as a first-time playcaller with an old QB who couldn't move in Kirk Cousins and then a rookie debut in Michael Penix.
If Penix continues to improve and keeps hitting those deep shots all season, this could be an explosive offense and Robinson could be the next Ben Johnson — architect of a great offense and future head coach, the talk of the league.
Robinson is a bullseye for Assistant Coach of the Year, and this is a great way to bet on a high-end outcome for the Falcons
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds
55
NFL Asst Coach of the Year: Jesse Minter+3300
0.25u
Minter came with Jim Harbaugh from Michigan and worked wonders with an under-talented Chargers roster, turning them into one of the league's surprisingly great pass defenses. Minter mixed up coverages early on and got breakout seasons from young players like CB Tarheeb Still and LB Daiyan Henley.
The Chargers offense could struggle some this year with stud T Rashawn Slater out. If L.A.'s defense carries it back to the playoffs with another aggressive campaign, Minter will be a buzzy head coaching candidate and could very well win this award.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds
53
NFL Asst Coach of the Year: Kliff Kingsbury+2800
0.25u
Kingsbury did a great job adding creative run schemes to his playcalling, and he also called the plays that repeatedly helped the team convert in huge fourth downs all season, going a ridiculous 20-of-23.
What if Kingsbury and the offense keep that up with an even bigger step forward, but Daniels isn't ready for MVP quite yet?
Washington's defense is old and not great, so this would definitely be the side of the ball that gets credit. Kingsbury could be the perfect guy to get credit for a successful Commanders campaign, and he's got that failed head coach bounce-back narrative in his favor as well.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds
50
Tre Johnson, All Rookie Team+550
0.5u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
13
Bulls to make play-in+220
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
17
Bucks last in division+1300
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
14
Avdija 23ppg & Blazers 40+ wins+2000
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
15
Dyson Daniels SPG leader+125
2u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
18
Rockets to make play-in+850
0.5u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
16
Draymond Green: All Defense+900
2u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Escalator: Gobert/+950 (0.5u), JJJ/+850 (0.5u)
11
Jalen Green 23ppg-110
0.5u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Escalator: 24/+200 (0.5u), 25/+350 (0.1u), 26/+700 (0.1), 27/+1800 (0.1u)
19
Jalen Green PPG leader+30000
0.1u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
33
Anfernee Simons 3s leader+10000
0.5u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Escalator: Simons/White 4+ 3s each +3000 (0.1u)
36
Zach Edey 10rpg+100
1u
Zach Edey reb escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Escalator: 12/+1000 (0.25u), rpg leader +20000 (0.25u)
41g requirement
20
Zach Edey 12rpg+1000
0.5u
Zach Edey reb escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Zach Edey RPG leader+20000
0.5u
Zach Edey reb escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama BPG leader-280
1.4u
All the fun Wemby props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama 20 reb any game+200
1u
All the fun Wemby props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama 5x5 any game+340
3u
The ONE Wemby bet you NEED to bet this sn! I make this more like -600. Hammer play 🔨
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
56
Cooper Flagg o16.5ppg-110
2u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 20ppg+500
0.5u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 40pts any game+360
0.25u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg o6.1rpg-110
1.5u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
22
Cooper Flagg 15 reb any game+425
0.5u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 18ppg 6rpg+270
1.5u
If you only play 1 Flagg prop, this is my favorite!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
19
Division with most wins: Pacific+500
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Timberwolves exact wins: 48-51+300
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Timberwolves exact wins: 52-55+370
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Thunder exact wins: 72-75+2500
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Hawks o5.5 seed+125
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Darko Rajakovic, NBA Coach of the Year+2500
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
SE division: Magic 1, Heat 2+850
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Erik Spoelstra, NBA Coach of the Year+4000
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Central division: Cavs 1, Pistons 2+158
0.75u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Magic u3.5 seed+115
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Magic 1 seed+650
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Cam Johnson 3 3s/g & Jokic 28ppg & Nuggets title+3500
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Futures
San Francisco 49ers+2000
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
1u
49ers as next year’s Eagles? My first 2026 Super Bowl pick Hot Read 🔥: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick
180
Seattle Seahawks+7000
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
Next year’s Vikings? Elite D, great O weapons & new OC Kubiak elevates O: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick
119
Matthew Stafford+5000
2025 NFL MVP
0.5u
MVP requires stats, wins, and narrative. Rams offense should be far healthier + Davante Adams, which could mean huge numbers and a push into top 5 all time pass yards, plus big wins and a top 2 seed if the young defensive front continues to improve. Would be a crowning HOF achievement at his age and an obvious media narrative boost. No reason a QB this good on a team this talented to be priced this long. Should be half this number max.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-picks-best-5000-long-shot-on-board
150
Tua Tagovailoa+3500
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year
0.5u
We already know Tagovailoa will post awesome numbers for Mike McDaniel when healthy, and we already know the Dolphins with Tua healthy are a winning team. Tagovailoa has a winning record in all three McDaniel seasons and 4500/30 pace over 17 games.
Of course, Tagovailoa is a significant injury risk, but if he actually stays healthy for most of the season, the Dolphins should push for nine or 10 wins and the playoffs. Tagovailoa should be in the mix with any other QB option for this award.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
127
Dre Greenlaw+15000
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year
0.25u
The entire world saw Greenlaw tear his Achilles in the Super Bowl. He played just two games last year, but we already know Greenlaw can be about as good and impactful as any linebacker in football when healthy.
Now Greenlaw joins a Denver defense that already ranked among the league's finest last season. If the Broncos take another step and are a clear No. 1 unit with Greenlaw buzzing around the field at the heart of everything, he'll get a ton of media attention.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
91
Micah Parsons+1350
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
2.5u
TRADE UPDATE: happy with our huge CLV, clear media fav now, but new unknown situation means caution too. If you missed, don’t chase steam now.
Parsons was the betting favorite in each of the last two seasons, and he'd absolutely be my favorite again if I were making the odds.
It seems pretty clear Parsons will win DPOY at some point in his career, maybe more than one. He would be my clear favorite for an award we overwhelmingly give to favorites.
Parsons was priced at +600 last season; I wouldn't price him longer than +300. But you can bet him at +800 at DraftKings or Caesars, or an outlandish +1350 at Circa.
I don't just like Micah Parsons for DPOY — I absolutely love him. He's my favorite awards bet of the entire 2025 awards circuit, and I'm investing multiple units while we get this outrageous discount.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
124
Travis Hunter+1200
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.5u
There's reason to believe Hunter, not Brian Thomas Jr., will step into that power slot role Godwin occupied, especially considering his elite Reception Perception route tree.
I'm of the belief that Hunter will be a part-time defender, especially after missing much of training camp with that injury. And maybe, rather than those snaps taking away from Hunter's offensive upside, we're thinking about it all wrong — I think any defensive snaps and the occasional highlight play or kick return could just act as extra credit for Hunter's OROY case.
I think the positional uncertainty and injury questions are buying us value.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
113
RJ Harvey+3600
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
The Broncos want to run to protect Bo Nix, and Denver has the consensus second-best offensive line in the league. And though Javonte Williams stunk last season, he did get 217 carries.
Sean Payton's system has been great for RBs, with his team finishing top seven in rushing TDs over half his seasons as a head coach and a long history of using his backs in the passing game. Alvin Kamara won OROY under Payton, and Harvey has flashed versatility as a receiver in the preseason, and he ran for 1,400+ yards and 16+ TDs each of his last two seasons at Central Florida.
Harvey remains undervalued in both fantasy football and betting. He'd have top-five odds for me to win OROY, at least 10% likely, so that makes him a serious bargain at +3000 (DraftKings), or +3600 at Circa if you have it.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
105
Kaleb Johnson+5500
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Nate Tice called Kaleb Johnson "Honey, I shrunk Derrick Henry," and now he'll play in the zone-heavy Arthur Smith run scheme that helped Henry leap to stardom.
Johnson had a monster 240/1,537/21 line on the ground at Iowa a year ago and could take many of the 263 carries Najee Harris had last season.
Smith's offenses routinely rank near the top half of the league in rushing attempts so Johnson could be in for a big role once he earns the staff's trust — and this young offensive line has upside. He's a good long shot at +4000 (FanDuel) or +5500 (Circa).
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
87
Jacory Croskey-Merritt+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
"Bill" has had a great preseason, and it's often a good idea backing a RB playing next to a QB running threat. JCM has only seven receptions in his career, so you'll likely need a bunch of yards and a heap of short TDs, but that could be possible for a Washington offense that's invested a lot in its line.
Croskey-Merritt is shooting up fantasy boards and odds alike. He's a starting RB on a good offense — that means he's worth a play in theory, but be sure to shop around. I'd sprinkle him at +3500 at BetRivers or +4000 (Circa), but probably stop before +2500.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
87
Josh Simmons+50000
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Simmons is also extremely talented — Brandon Thorn's No. 1 rated blocker in the draft when healthy — and Simmons has looked healthy and outstanding and will step immediately into a starting left tackle role, protecting the blindside of the best player in the game.
If Simmons plays well and Patrick Mahomes finally has time to throw it deep again, we're going to hear Josh Simmons talked about as an "it" rookie on every broadcast all season. It's the Chiefs, after all!
Heck, we'll probably even hear the Kelces talk about Simmons on the booming "New Heights" podcast at some point, seeing as one one of them will be lining up next to him at tight end and the other one is an offensive lineman.
All we need now is Taylor Swift to show up to a Kansas City game rocking a No. 71 Simmons jersey and this Love Story will be complete.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
81
A.J. Brown+5500
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
The Eagles were playing with a lead in almost every game, and that made them the run-heaviest team in the league in second halves.
It's natural to expect Philadelphia to come back to earth a little in 2025, and that should mean more passing opportunity for Brown.
Brown averages over 10 yards per target for his career and almost 16 yards per catch, insane efficiency metrics. He paced for 127 catches in 13 games last season, and he had a seven-game stretch the previous season with 120+ yards in every game and a pace for 2,355 yards.
With a pass-heavier script in Philadelphia, Brown has serious potential to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. He's also got an easy narrative story as potentially the sneaky-best receiver in the NFL that's been hiding behind a run-heavy offense.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
76
Brian Thomas+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie. His final seven-game pace was for 121 catches, 1,640 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
He'd need to hit those numbers and then some to win this, but now he should get a big boost in a Liam Coen offense that helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up monster numbers a year ago in Tampa Bay.
The arrival of Travis Hunter could take some targets from Thomas, but Jacksonville lost a ton of receptions to Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there should plenty of balls to go around from Trevor Lawrence. Hunter's presence could also leave Thomas in more frequent single coverage.
Jacksonville has a bad defense and poor run game and offensive line, so it really has to be the passing game if the Jaguars are to succeed. That could set Thomas up as this year's Ja'Marr Chase if everything clicks.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
72
Tyreek Hill+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
Tyreek Hill finished top four in OPOY voting two years straight before falling off the map last season.
He's 31 now and we'll probably never get that Tyreek back, but I'd hate myself for passing on him at such a long number if I'm wrong.
This is a bet on both Tyreek and Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, so it's asking for a lot, but Tyreek has record-breaking talent if it's still in there somewhere.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
71
Christian McCaffrey+2200
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
I will break my own rules and place a small bet on McCaffrey — because he would be my outright favorite, and I'd place his odds closer to +800 or +1000 among the favorites and don't expect +2200 to be available later.
McCaffrey plays an incredibly soft schedule, and he consistently puts up elite numbers when healthy, so his OPOY season wasn't even really a significant outlier. McCaffrey is still only 29 and always pushes 2,000 scrimmage yards with his receiving abilities, and he has a great nose for the end zone and should score plenty for the 49ers.
McCaffrey has finished first, third and seventh in OPOY voting, and he has a cake schedule right out of the gates. It's impossibly tough to repeat as OPOY but there's too much value at +2200 to not add him to our position while that number is there (at Caesars).
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
75
Mykel Williams+1400
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Williams posted 4.5 or 5.0 sacks all three seasons as part of Georgia's rotation — just 14 total in three seasons — though he did add 23 tackles for losses. Those aren't overwhelming flash stats, but they're close enough to get a look as he moves into more of a feature role in the pros, especially since he can also slide inside and rush over the tackle. That could keep him on the field for all three downs.
Don't underestimate the coaching either. Saleh has great defensive chops, and Williams should also benefit from playing for legendary San Francisco defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who repeatedly coaxes big seasons out of his linemen. Maybe Williams will be his next success story.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
68
Carson Schwesinger+3500
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
He led the Big Ten with 90 tackles last year and also added four sacks and two interceptions. Cleveland is suddenly lacking linebacker options so Schwesinger should be a day one starter.
Maybe he puts up numbers similar to what Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did two years ago for Jim Schwartz, 101 combined tackles with two picks and 3.5 sacks. Schwesinger had a top-50 athleticism score among over 3,200 linebacker prospects since 1987, so he's elite at everything and can certainly make some big plays.
Schwesinger has had great reviews in the preseason and even had six tackles in 13 snaps one game.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
75
Lamar Jackson+550
2025 NFL MVP
1u
Jackson has never lost more than five games in a season and he's proven he has the advanced metrics in addition to the ever-present flash and stats; his abilities as a runner also seem to scramble voters' brains so that even a potential dip in passing stats may not matter. Likewise his ongoing fumbling problem, when only interceptions seem to count front of mind.
There's also a very easy Jackson narrative.
True, he's yet to make that big playoff run, but there's also ubiquitous sentiment that Jackson was "robbed" of this award last year. That's a column for another day, but if Jackson and the Ravens lap the field again, voters will make no mistake about it this time around.
At the end of the day — and I can't believe I of all people am writing this — Jackson might simply be the age-old MVP formula: the best player on the best team in the regular season.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs
71
Brock Purdy+3000
2025 NFL MVP
0.25u
Purdy was in the mix two years ago before injuries derailed San Francisco's season, but he may have actually earned a modicum of respect with his play last season. With lesser weapons and less help around him, Purdy might actually get some credit.
The numbers and advanced metrics will be there in a Kyle Shanahan system — Purdy led the league in both EPA and EPA + CPOE in 2023, and he's over a 5% TD rate and almost 9.0 yards per attempt for his career.
There's also an obvious narrative in play for a guy who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the draft. Did Purdy take another leap? Is he a top-10 QB now?
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs
64
Houston Texans+4000
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.25u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
49
Omarion Hampton+900
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.5u
Remember how the Giants were a sneaky top-10-potential defense? Turns out not so much. New York ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA so far and dead last against the run. The Giants are so bad against the rush that even the Chiefs were able to run on them!
This isn't new either. The Giants allowed almost 1900 rushing yards to RBs last season, fifth most in the NFL, with the median outcome for a lead RB at 87 yards, so over half the games! This season the Giants are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, and that's against Washington, Dallas, and Kansas City — not exactly a murderer's row of opposing running backs.
Volume is key here.
Since the start of last season, RBs with 14+ carries against the Giants are averaging 121 rushing yards. With Najee Harris out for the season, Hampton should see a huge workload under notoriously run-heavy OC Greg Roman. Hampton had 19 carries just last week even with Harris playing part of the game, and he had 23 carries the first two games even in a part-time role.
Play Hampton to go over 62.5 rushing yards (BetRivers), considering he hit that already last week with 70 yards against a far better defense despite playing part-time.
This is a great opportunity for a Hampton breakout game too. Six RBs hit 100 yards against the Giants last season, so let's play Hampton to do that at +475 (bet365). He's +1000 to make it to 120 rushing yards, right at that average outcome for RBs with 14+ carries against New York.
If Hampton does have a huge rushing game, we'll definitely want that Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket too at +900 (Circa).
I'm selling high on Emeka Egbuka with other Bucs WRs coming back and on Tyler Warren since a tight end has never won the award, and I'm not buying Dart with a rough upcoming schedule. This race feels open to some of the RBs slowly nudging themselves into a bigger role, and Hampton leads the pack.
If he has a big game against the Giants on Sunday, Omarion Hampton could wake up Monday morning as a Rookie of the Year favorite.
9
Trevor Lawrence+2500
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year
0.5u
CPOY goes to an injury return, typically a QB (12 of the last 16), on a 9+ win playoff team (13 of the last 15).
I don’t love the favs. Only one RB has won ever and CMC isn’t running well. Only 1 defender last 16 is a strike against Hutch. Jones coming back from sucking not injury. Dak big stats but unlikely playoff contender + CD hurt.
Lawrence hasn’t been great but everything else about Jax has and looks far more likely to win 9 and make playoffs now than before the season, so why has he dropped from +550 preseason then to +2500 now? Makes no sense for a narrative award when we give QBs credit for wins.
Playing now before wk5 MNF which is all upside if he wins a showcase home game against Mahomes and gets to 4-1, but still very much in the mix with a loss and no standout CPOY candidate.
91
Tetairoa McMillan+1300
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
For a second straight week, I strongly considered the Cowboys as a short road favorite.
This Dallas offense looks legit, and Dak Prescott is typically great as a favorite and against sub-.500 teams.
The Cowboys should score. But they might allow plenty of points to the Panthers too, as bad as their defense is playing, and with a total at 49.5, this could end up in the running for highest-scoring game of the week.
Could this finally be the Tet McMillan breakout game?
Carolina's star rookie WR has looked the part on the field but yet to put up a huge line, but this matchup sets up well for some big time production. The Cowboys rank bottom three in the NFL both against the pass and overall by Defensive DVOA.
This pass defense just has no shot right now, especially against opposing WR1s. Malik Nabers had nine catches for 167 yards and two scores against Dallas. Rome Odunze had 62 yards and a TD. Romeo Doubs found the end zone three times, and Garrett Wilson saw 71 yards and a score himself.
All four of those WRs scored a touchdown, with Nabers scoring twice and Doubs three times. Dallas allowed a TD to 8-of-17 opposing WR1s last season too, almost half of them.
McMillan's receptions and yardage lines have been bet up this week past value, so I'm investing in a touchdown or two. He's a big target and should be Bryce Young's look in the red zone, and we could see a whole bunch of touchdowns in a potential shootout.
I'll back McMillan for an Anytime Touchdown at +150 (Caesars) and put a bit on two TDs at +1200 too (FanDuel) with plenty of scores to go around.
This might also be the spot to buy a Tet McMillan ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1300 (ESPN Bet). Emeka Egbuka is the clear favorite right now but should slow down once Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return, and the field looks pretty wide open after Egbuka with Ashton Jeanty second in name only.
A big game Sunday from McMillan should finally get him the attention he deserves.
30
Nick Emmanwori+6000
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.5u
🏈 Introducing the Pick Six! 🏈
I’ll start each week at @ActionNetworkHQ by picking 6 NFL sides that *should* win in the upcoming slate to build a moneyline parlay… +630 this week!
Plus my Extra Point, a parting thought DROY long shot at 60-1.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions
66
New Orleans Pelicans u31.5-111
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
30
Portland Trail Blazers o34.5-102
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
29
Sacramento Kings o34.5-115
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
29
Los Angeles Lakers u48.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
40
Houston Rockets u53.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
40
Minnesota Timberwolves o49.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
36
Oklahoma City Thunder o62.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
40
Oklahoma City Thunder-300
2025-26 NBA Northwest Division - To Win
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
19
Los Angeles Clippers (No)+350
2025-26 NBA To Make The Playoffs
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
37
Golden State Warriors+300
2025-26 NBA Pacific Division - To Win
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
28
Houston Rockets u48.5+265
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
12
Los Angeles Lakers (No)+325
2025-26 NBA To Make The Playoffs
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
35
Indiana Pacers u38.5-120
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
27
Boston Celtics u42.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
2.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
36
Miami Heat o37.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
34
Indiana Pacers u31.5+400
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
12
Boston Celtics u36.5+280
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
14
Miami Heat o50.5+4000
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
22
Toronto Raptors o37.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
36
Detroit Pistons o46.5-115
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
32
New York Knicks u53.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
33
Toronto Raptors o49.5+1100
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
23
New York Knicks u44.5+700
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
13
Orlando Magic o50.5-115
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
34
Cleveland Cavaliers o56.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
35
Toronto Raptors+3000
2025-26 NBA Atlantic Division - To Win
2u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
39
Boston Celtics (No)+185
2025-26 NBA To Make The Playoffs
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
32
Philadelphia 76ers+700
2025-26 NBA Atlantic Division - To Win
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
29
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander+275
2025-26 NBA MVP
2u
It’s only boring bc it’s so obviously the right bet. Depleted field, best player best team, a runaway clear favorite if healthy. I’d take him vs the field.
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
47
Jalen Williams+5000
2025-26 NBA Playoff Series - Western Conference Finals - MVP
0.5u
Just shouldn’t be 18x SGA, clear favs
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
34
Amen Thompson+1000
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.5u
The most fun awards bet you can make this sn
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
44
Brandon Miller+5000
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.25u
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
57
Kevin Porter+6000
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.25u
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
47
Evan Mobley+2500
2025-26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
2u
My favorite awards bet of the preseason. 🎯
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
59
Cooper Flagg-170
2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.5u
It’s boring but it’s going to win barring injury.
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
31
Jordan Clarkson+4000
2025-26 NBA 6th Man of the Year
1u
Prior winner, absolute bullseye for this award at a wild outlier number at FD
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
55
Jalen Green+7500
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.25u
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
41
Denver Nuggets+850
2025-26 NBA Championship - To Win
0.25u
One last pre-season bet, the final pick from our Bet-a-Palooza podcast. Calling my title shot! @TurveyBets & I were on OKC last year… this year we’re both looking to invest in Nuggets title futures! 🏆
46
Ashton Jeanty+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Week 11 Extra Point:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks
84
Jared Goff+3000
2025 NFL MVP
0.25u
For all the talk about Rams-Seahawks, this game could wind up just as important in the NFC.
We already know both these teams are built for the playoffs, having seen them each go on deep runs. Playoff football is about running the ball and playing defense, exactly what these teams have built their identities around.
Right now, though, Detroit is better at both.
The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, top five by DVOA. The Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season in defense after adding Jaelan Phillips, but Philadelphia is still just 13th in DVOA on the season.
As for the rushing attacks, the Lions appear to have the advantage both ways.
Detroit ranks 6th in DVOA running the ball while the Eagles rank just 21st in defense. Flip it around and the Eagles are a surprising 22nd by DVOA rushing, while the Lions rank 7th.
Saquon Barkley just hasn't hit those explosives this season, and four of five Eagles linemen are on the injury report. That line hasn't been as good as it was in past years.
For all the talk about Philadelphia's improvement, Detroit also took a big step last week. Dan Campbell took over play calling, and the impact was immediately apparent.
The Lions rank top three by EPA per play in both motion and playaction plays, and they immediately used more motion with Campbell and nearly doubled their playaction calls. That could be a huge problem for the Eagles, since they rank 29th by EPA per play defending playaction.
Both sides have important injuries, and it's never fun backing Jared Goff on the road in a windy environment, but Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball, with superior special teams and coaching. The Lions are also a luck side in our Luck Rankings.
Grab Lions +3 while it's there (ESPN Bet) at the key, or best number available.
I actually make the Lions the favorite, so I'm inclined to bet on a win too. Just the moneyline isn't enticing enough, but Detroit has won nine straight games by at least six points so let's place a portion of the bet on Lions -5.5 alt at +246 (DraftKings).
The futures angle here is clear — bet MVP for the QB on the team you expect to win.
The MVP race still appears to be wide open. Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win this award, so the prices for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appear way off with their teams in the wildcard race, and upstart Drake Maye has the MVP target on his back now.
The Eagles enter the weekend at 52% to be a top-two seed, while the Lions are at 40%. Whichever team wins will be in contention with the Rams-Seahawks winner for the top spot in the NFC, and that could be the kingmaker spot.
Hurts is on pace for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs including rushing, with only two interceptions. Goff is on pace for 4,200 yards passing with 38 TDs and six picks, and his passing rate went up with Campbell calling plays.
The Lions still have a number of marquee games on the schedule — Packers on Thanksgiving, Cowboys the following Thursday night, a huge late afternoon game against the Rams, and the Vikings on Christmas. The Lions will be favored in every game the rest of the season except that Rams one — an obvious narrative revenge spot against his old team.
Hurts and Goff are priced similarly for MVP to guys like Justin Herbert playing with no offensive line, Baker Mayfield whose entire supporting cast is injured, and Lamar Jackson who has under a 3% shot at a top-two seed.
If we like the Lions, we have to like Goff for MVP too in a wide open race. That's the ultimate Lions escalator on Sunday night at +3000 (ESPN Bet).
41
Oregon Ducks+1100
2025 NCAAF Championship - To Win
1u
Grabbing some Oregon title stock.
If I’m reading the board right, they look like the 5, which means the easiest matchup rd1, then also the easiest matchup rd2, likely TT. Then rd3 avoid UGa/tOSU in the 2/3.
Path to title game: JMU, TT, then IU/ND.
🦆 Ducks +1100 Hard Rock 🦆
73
Nick Emmanwori+3000
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.5u
Sack, INT, blocked FG just today is practically an entire DROY season in this class. It’s him or Schwesinger at this point, and he had a brief injury today. This market moves fast, he could be like +300 in a heartbeat but is 30-1 Riv 25-1 FD right now so adding.
39
Christian McCaffrey+2500
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.5u
With Taylor’s case crippled, is this market open to more than just JSN? Is CMC the NFL Shohei Ohtani? I make the case in this week’s Extra Point: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-15-parlay-picks-predictions
80
Christian McCaffrey+380
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
Action Network pod pick! 1/2/26
33
Nick Emmanwori+1200
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Action Network pod pick! 1/2/26
43
San Francisco 49ers+460
2025 NFL NFC Conference - To Win
0.25u
This is the most important game of the season, and not just for the regular season. My numbers have the winner here virtually doubling their chances to win the NFC and Super Bowl — so that's really the only way to play a side or moneyline here.
49ers futures look like the way to go.
San Francisco is near a coin flip here thanks to home field, and a win would dramatically improve the 49ers' chances going forward — just three more home wins away from a title, since San Francisco hosts the Super Bowl too.
A win clinches the 1-seed and a bye week, and it could also mean lucking into a Divisional Round game against the injured Packers or maybe even an NFC South team. That's a huge upside swing for the 49ers, who likely become Super Bowl favorites with a win Saturday.
I'd put the 49ers around 30% to win the NFC with a win and above 15% to win it all, dropping to 12% and 6% respectively with a loss.
That means there's value betting the 49rs to win the NFC at +440 and Super Bowl at +950 (both FanDuel) since those implied odds at 19% and 9.5% have far more to gain than lose if San Francisco gets the win on Saturday night.
74
San Francisco 49ers+950
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.25u
This is the most important game of the season, and not just for the regular season. My numbers have the winner here virtually doubling their chances to win the NFC and Super Bowl — so that's really the only way to play a side or moneyline here.
49ers futures look like the way to go.
San Francisco is near a coin flip here thanks to home field, and a win would dramatically improve the 49ers' chances going forward — just three more home wins away from a title, since San Francisco hosts the Super Bowl too.
A win clinches the 1-seed and a bye week, and it could also mean lucking into a Divisional Round game against the injured Packers or maybe even an NFC South team. That's a huge upside swing for the 49ers, who likely become Super Bowl favorites with a win Saturday.
I'd put the 49ers around 30% to win the NFC with a win and above 15% to win it all, dropping to 12% and 6% respectively with a loss.
That means there's value betting the 49rs to win the NFC at +440 and Super Bowl at +950 (both FanDuel) since those implied odds at 19% and 9.5% have far more to gain than lose if San Francisco gets the win on Saturday night.
62
Drake Maye+175
2025 NFL MVP
3u
Hedge on an outlier CZR line. I’ve got Stafford 50-1 for 0.5u to win 25u, invested 2u on MVP so far. This puts us in for 5u total so either make a small profit on Maye or still win huge on Stafford.
These lines should not be up anymore. Voters are positing their votes and I’ve seen a bunch of Maye support and only like 2 Stafford. Felt like this was over after the MNF flop and no reason it should’ve swung so much on two meaningless Week 18 games.
I would put this fair price more like -150 Maye minimum and could easily talk myself into -250 range. Gotta do it. If wrong and it’s still Stafford, we eat the 3u, so be it.
62
Bo Nix+1300
2025 NFL Super Bowl MVP
0.5u
I can't say before the season that I would've ever expected Bo Nix to be my first Super Bowl MVP bet!
In betting, you always have to play the number. I'm not a believer in Nix, but this is the wrong number.
Denver is the AFC 1-seed. That means the Broncos get one of the two coveted byes in the playoff field, perhaps more valuable than ever in a season filled with parity and unknown. After all, the best way to win a postseason game is to not have to play one at all.
Among the AFC's best teams all season, the Broncos feature a tenacious defense and a great winter home-field advantage, and they're just two home wins away from the Super Bowl.
The Broncos are the favorites to come out of the AFC and the third favorite to win the Super Bowl at a consensus +650, an implied 13.3%. That's really not that high for a 1-seed that's two wins away.
If the Broncos were simply 50/50 to win each remaining game, they'd be 12.5% to win it all, or +700. They'd likely be Super Bowl underdogs, but should be favored at home before that.
Defense, home field, and just enough offense in wintery conditions? We've seen that formula work for Denver and any number of other champions before.
But Nix's price is key.
Look around the market, and you'll find most quarterbacks are priced with relatively similar Super Bowl MVP odds as their team's title chances. Most of them would need to win MVP around 75% of the time the team wins a championship to be a good bet. This makes sense — remember, 75% of the last 16 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert — they're all about 75% implied to win MVP in their teams' Super Bowl wins. Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence are even higher at 79 and 84%, making them poor bets. Josh Allen is totally unbettable at +1200 to win MVP, with Buffalo at +1100.
So what about Nix?
He's priced at just +1300 to win MVP (Fanatics), just 7.1% implied. Compare that to Denver's +650 Super Bowl odds, and Nix only needs to Super Bowl MVP in 54% of all Denver titles to have value.
Think about a typical Broncos game. Who would win MVP?
Nix doesn't feel like an MVP, but he's still Denver's most valuable player most of the time. Defense is a team effort, unless there's a huge pick-6 or touchdown-scoring play. There's no a star RB or receiver racking up stats either.
By default, that makes the QB most important. As always.
If you go through Denver's 14 wins this season and pick an MVP, Nix would be the MVP in at least seven of them, probably a couple more.
Whether you believe in Nix or not is irrelevant. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, you better believe their quarterback will have to make a few big throws. Nix is also a threat to big plays with his legs, maybe even run one in.
Eli Manning won Super Bowl MVP. So did Joe Flacco. So did Nick Foles.
You don't have to be the best QB in the NFL to win Super Bowl MVP. Sometimes you just have to be the quarterback on the winning team.
At the end of the day, this is a bargain price on
47
Jaxon Smith-Njigba+2800
2025 NFL Super Bowl MVP
0.75u
Let's stick with the 1-seeds and head to the other conference.
Seattle is the NFC 1-seed and the Super Bowl favorite at +390 (FanDuel), implied 20.4% to win it all.
The NFC is the far more difficult conference, and Seattle has to play one fewer game than the rest of the competition. The Seahawks are two home games away from a title — which is why Sam Darnold is the Super Bowl MVP favorite at +600.
Darnold is the right favorite, and considering how often the QB of the winning team takes MVP, he's not a terrible bet.
But Darnold was never in real conversations this year for MVP or any other award — but his teammate is a heavy favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards this season and added 119 receptions and 10 touchdowns to boot. He had at least 100 yards in over half his games and at least 72 in all but one. Eight times he had at least five catches for 90 yards and a TD. Six times he had at least eight catches and 120 yards.
Do that on the game's biggest stage in a win, and you can bet Smith-Njigba will be live for Super Bowl MVP at +2800 (Caesars).
Seattle has no other serious receiving threat, and the rushing attack is usually split between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks would be more likely than most teams to have a defensive Super Bowl MVP, but offense is still far more likely.
Smith-Njigba only has to win MVP in an implied 17% of all Seattle Super Bowl victories for this bet to have value. JSN would likely have been MVP in at least three or four Seahawks victories already this season, somewhere between 20-to-29% of their wins — and notably three of their four victories against teams that made the playoffs.
Because Seattle's passing attack funnels so heavily through JSN, a huge amount of Darnold passes end up in his stud receiver's hands, neutering Darnold's statistical advantage for a possible MVP case.
Like Nix, this is an excellent bet on the star of the 1-seed, two home wins away from a shot at the award.
59
Puka Nacua+3500
2025 NFL Super Bowl MVP
1u
If we're not going to bet on a player on a 1-seed, we may as well take the next best thing available.
The Rams didn't get the 1-seed, but they got by far the softest opponent in the playoff field. The Panthers are the worst team in the field and the Rams are double-digit road favorites, by far biggest of Wild Card weekend and in the 80-to-90% implied range to advance. That's still not a bye but it's as close as it gets, especially this year.
The most likely outcome from there is a road game in Chicago or Philadelphia. That won't be easy, but the Rams would be favored in either location — and more importantly, that would mean only having to play one of the top three presumed NFC teams, all of them right there in the NFC West. A San Francisco win would likely send the 49ers to Seattle, a tougher matchup than the Rams would face.
Los Angeles is the top-rated team in the market. That's correctly priced in my opinion, and I'd have the Rams favored by more than a field goal on a neutral field against every team in the NFL other than Seattle.
L.A. would be a clear and significant favorite to win the Super Bowl as the 1-seed. The fact that the Rams are priced just behind the Seahawks at +430 (FanDuel) despite needing to play an extra game and, likely, a road game in Seattle, shows just how strong the Rams are.
Los Angeles is my Super Bowl pick, but it's hard to invest at +430, 18.9% implied.
Some quick back-of-the-napkin math — make the Rams 90% to win this weekend, 60% to win in Philly or Chicago, a coin flip in Seattle, then clear 70% favorites in the Super Bowl. That would put L.A. right at 18.9%, the price you're paying for a Rams ticket right now.
And however much you like the Rams, every one of those percentages is very aggressive for a single game — especially considering L.A. has already blown four likely wins with goofy endings this season.
If you want to invest in the Rams, you'll need to get creative. Matthew Stafford at +625 to win MVP probably isn't creative enough; he'd have to win MVP in over 73% of all Rams titles for that ticket to have surplus value — and that's only if there's value on the +430 ticket to start with.
Enter: Puka Nacua.
Nacua isn't exactly Jaxon Smith-Njigba. L.A.'s rushing attack is more lethal, and Davante Adams is a far better receiving option than anyone else Seattle has opposite JSN. Even the Rams' tight ends are statistical threats as often as they play 13 personnel.
Still, Nacua put up massive numbers this season. He had 1,715 receiving yards, just off the league lead, and he did that despite missing one game and playing around 50% of the snaps in four more games.
Nacua had 129 catches, including 10+ receptions in six games. He scored in over half his games and also had 85+ combined yards in three-fourths of them.
Looking for a huge MVP game? Puka had 167 or more yards four times already this season, and he found the end zone in three of those four games, scoring twice in half of them. He would've been L.A.'s clear MVP in all four of those games and at least once more this season.
Look at some receivers who Super Bowl MVP over the last couple of decades:
Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs
Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards
Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD
Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards
Aren't those lines reminiscent of what Nacua would put up in a Rams win? Huge volume, repeated targets, chewing up yardage, and moving the chains repeatedly in big, high-leverage spots. That's Nacua, and it's the exact formula former teammate Cooper Kupp used to snag MVP in Stafford's first Super Bowl win with the Rams.
The Rams are +430 to win it all, but Nacua is priced much longer at +3500 to win MVP (DraftKings).
That's just 2.9% implied, and it means Nacua only has to win in less than 15% of all Rams victories for that ticket to have value.
Nacua is my favorite Super Bowl MVP bet on the board entering the postseason at +3500.
70
Saquon Barkley+6600
2025 NFL Super Bowl MVP
0.5u
No running back this century has won Super Bowl MVP — it's been 28 years since Terrell Davis last won it in 1998! — but Saquon Barkley is the best bet to break that trend.
Do you believe in the Eagles offense? You might be the only one.
The Eagles struggled mightily to find an identity all season, and the running game has fallen off badly. There are no secret underlying metrics suggesting a sudden turnaround. I have no magic formula to explain to you why the Eagles will suddenly run the ball well again. They probably won't!
But what if they do?
The Eagles are a run-heavy team at heart, and their defense is playing so well right now that they will have a chance in any game. Philadelphia will start the postseason at home and could get a second home game (if the Seahawks get upset).
We already know Philadelphia's winning formula: play defense, shorten the game, win with physicality, and let the offensive stars make a couple big plays.
Barkley is the team's biggest star, and though he had a quiet Super Bowl, he entered the game as Philadelphia's MVP favorite, priced shorter than Jalen Hurts — +260 versus +375. Barkley didn't win Super Bowl MVP, but would've almost certainly won MVP in all three other Eagles playoff wins last season.
Philadelphia rested last week and should be healthier with the return of T Lane Johnson especially notable.
It's also worth noting who the Eagles would play down the line if they keep winning.
The Rams are one likely opponent — Barkley absolutely shredded them twice last season. The Bears are another likely opponent — their defense is poor at best.
More importantly, consider the likely Super Bowl opponents. Denver, Houston, and Jacksonville have tough defenses, but Buffalo and New England are two of the most likely opponents, and both teams have been awful against the run.
Let's put it another way — if Philadelphia makes the Super Bowl against either Buffalo or New England, you're really going to want that Saquon Super Bowl MVP ticket.
Philadelphia is the fourth-ranked Super Bowl favorite at +950 (DraftKings), implied 9.5%.
Barkley is +6600 to win BetMGM, just 1.5% implied. That means Barkley only has to win MVP in about 16% of all Eagles Super Bowl victories to give value to that ticket!
By comparison, last year's +260 ticket in the Super Bowl meant Barkley was 56% implied to win MVP, so that shows just how much potential value there is — especially since Hurts already won MVP, leaving an easy narrative path for Barkley.
How about another comparison?
Christian McCaffrey is +10000 to win MVP, but the 49ers are +3000 to win the title. McCaffrey would need to win Super Bowl MVP in 31% of all 49ers victories for that ticket to have value.
James Cook is a far better investment at +10000 (BetRivers). The Bills are +1100 to win a title, so Cook is only 12% implied to win MVP in that scenario. He had four games this season with 100+ rushing yards and a pair of scores and likely would've been MVP in each game, so he's an interesting bet.
But Cook unfortunately has no shot of playing Buffalo's awful run defense in the Super Bowl and would likely face a much tougher opponent. And we all know how hard it would be for anyone on the Bills not named Josh Allen to win MVP in that crowing scenario.
Barkley has the right mix of narrative, talent, opportunity, and price. He's the right RB to bet for Super Bowl MVP entering the postseason.
60
James Cook+10000
2025 NFL Super Bowl MVP
0.25u
No running back this century has won Super Bowl MVP — it's been 28 years since Terrell Davis last won it in 1998! — but Saquon Barkley is the best bet to break that trend.
Do you believe in the Eagles offense? You might be the only one.
The Eagles struggled mightily to find an identity all season, and the running game has fallen off badly. There are no secret underlying metrics suggesting a sudden turnaround. I have no magic formula to explain to you why the Eagles will suddenly run the ball well again. They probably won't!
But what if they do?
The Eagles are a run-heavy team at heart, and their defense is playing so well right now that they will have a chance in any game. Philadelphia will start the postseason at home and could get a second home game (if the Seahawks get upset).
We already know Philadelphia's winning formula: play defense, shorten the game, win with physicality, and let the offensive stars make a couple big plays.
Barkley is the team's biggest star, and though he had a quiet Super Bowl, he entered the game as Philadelphia's MVP favorite, priced shorter than Jalen Hurts — +260 versus +375. Barkley didn't win Super Bowl MVP, but would've almost certainly won MVP in all three other Eagles playoff wins last season.
Philadelphia rested last week and should be healthier with the return of T Lane Johnson especially notable.
It's also worth noting who the Eagles would play down the line if they keep winning.
The Rams are one likely opponent — Barkley absolutely shredded them twice last season. The Bears are another likely opponent — their defense is poor at best.
More importantly, consider the likely Super Bowl opponents. Denver, Houston, and Jacksonville have tough defenses, but Buffalo and New England are two of the most likely opponents, and both teams have been awful against the run.
Let's put it another way — if Philadelphia makes the Super Bowl against either Buffalo or New England, you're really going to want that Saquon Super Bowl MVP ticket.
Philadelphia is the fourth-ranked Super Bowl favorite at +950 (DraftKings), implied 9.5%.
Barkley is +6600 to win BetMGM, just 1.5% implied. That means Barkley only has to win MVP in about 16% of all Eagles Super Bowl victories to give value to that ticket!
By comparison, last year's +260 ticket in the Super Bowl meant Barkley was 56% implied to win MVP, so that shows just how much potential value there is — especially since Hurts already won MVP, leaving an easy narrative path for Barkley.
How about another comparison?
Christian McCaffrey is +10000 to win MVP, but the 49ers are +3000 to win the title. McCaffrey would need to win Super Bowl MVP in 31% of all 49ers victories for that ticket to have value.
James Cook is a far better investment at +10000 (BetRivers). The Bills are +1100 to win a title, so Cook is only 12% implied to win MVP in that scenario. He had four games this season with 100+ rushing yards and a pair of scores and likely would've been MVP in each game, so he's an interesting bet.
But Cook unfortunately has no shot of playing Buffalo's awful run defense in the Super Bowl and would likely face a much tougher opponent. And we all know how hard it would be for anyone on the Bills not named Josh Allen to win MVP in that crowing scenario.
Barkley has the right mix of narrative, talent, opportunity, and price. He's the right RB to bet for Super Bowl MVP entering the postseason.
54
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 25-46-1 | 35% | 3.98u |
| Last 30 Days | 55-129-4 | 29% | 0.60u |
| All Time | 2793-3906-107 | 41% | 815.47u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1279-1888-36 | 40% | 396.13u |
| NBA | 1303-1716-64 | 42% | 325.93u |
| NCAAB | 150-211-5 | 41% | 68.78u |
| NCAAF | 31-25-1 | 54% | 17.94u |
| Champions | 6-4-1 | 55% | 7.98u |
| WNBA | 5-7-0 | 42% | 5.32u |
| MLS | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.66u |
| ATP | 1-3-0 | 25% | 1.13u |
| La Liga | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.04u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.01u |
| World Cup | 3-9-0 | 25% | -2.70u |
| Premier League | 3-14-0 | 18% | -8.91u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Bet the Texans to go from worst to first in the division, and even doubled down with a Will Anderson DROY cherry on top. Joe Flacco CPOY +25000 and Nuggets over Heat +1600 exact outcome were fun, too!
Most Heartbreaking Bet
MVP bets. Tom Brady +1400 in 2021, odds-on favorite in December, but shutout vs. Saints on SNF. Nikola Jokic +900 in 2023, rightful leader all the way, but the moron voters get bored and go with Embiid last minute. Brock Purdy +5000 in 2024, odds-on favorite on Christmas, but the voters are too proud to vote for him or Dak. You're killin' me, Smalls!
Specialties
- Futures
- NFL Picks (every team, every game!)
- NBA Spreads & Props
- Escalator bets
- Long Shots