Brandon Anderson

As discussed on Buckets, firing on a few Davante props with Puka out

As discussed on Buckets, firing on a few Davante props with Puka out

As discussed on Buckets, firing on a few Davante props with Puka out

Is this the best Sunday morning game of the season? It might not have looked that way before the season, but this is suddenly a matchup of teams positioned to make the playoffs, with two of the more exciting offenses in football. The Jaguars are back in London again, their home away from home. Jacksonville has played far more games in England than any other NFL team, and some may argue that gives the Jaguars something of a home field advantage. Are we sure about that? Liam Coen is a first-year head coach and has the youngest, most inexperienced staff in the league, so this could be a big adjustment. Sean McVay has played out of the country before and should have his team ready, and he'll also be ready for Coen, a former longtime Rams assistant. Usually in these neutral games, you just want the better team. And right now, the Rams are the better team. The Rams enter the weekend fringe top five in my power ratings, while Jacksonville is still around league average. The DVOA metrics back that up. The Rams rank top five by DVOA on both offense and defense, while the Jaguars are close to average at all three facets of the game. Their offense has been fun but inconsistent, and the offensive line has faltered in recent weeks and could have its hands full with this young Rams defensive front. Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 10 times in just the last two weeks, a real red flag for a quarterback who usually doesn't struggle in that area. The big name missing in this one is Puka Nacua. Nacua has been the best receiver in the league this season, and he's a real loss to the Rams, but it matters that LA knew all week that it wouldn't have Nacua. McVay builds entire game plans around getting the ball to Nacua, so losing him midgame like last week can be a tough adjustment. Now McVay has had an entire week to build a different game plan to face the Jaguars, a team that plays a ton of two-high safety — and that means that was probably always going to set up as a better game for field-stretchers like Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee. Adams has been the clear No. 2 in Los Angeles with Nacua in the OPOY conversation, but this looks like it could be his breakout game in a Rams uniform, and I'm looking to invest heavily in Adams overs. Just look at what opposing star WRs have done against Jacksonville this season. Ja'Marr Chase caught 14 balls for 165 yards and a score. Nico Collins had eight receptions for 104 and a TD. Last week, the Jaguars traded for CB Greg Newsome and he got torched by Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 162 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. These receivers are much closer to Davante Adams in profile than Puka Nacua, not attacking underneath with YAC but beating the Jaguars over the top for big plays down the field. But you won't have to tell Davante that. He had his best game since leaving Green Bay last season against these Jaguars: nine catches for 198 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Could this be a huge game for Adams? He's always a touchdown threat in the red zone so play an Anytime Touchdown at +100 (bet365). Adams has a touchdown in half his Rams games already and in 14 of his last 27 games, over half. He has 24 career games with multiple scores, so place a portion of your TD wager on 2+ TDs at +650 (bet365). Adams isn't always a huge yardage guy, but when he hits, he can put up some monster lines. I'm forgoing his traditional yardage overs and playing some of the outliers in hope of a big game. A hundred receiving yards and a TD is +490 at bet365, a reasonable outcome for the top WR with Puka Nacua out. Think he can match last year's performance or what Chase and JSN did to this defense? You can bet 150+ yards at +1000, or go for broke with a little nibble on 150 yards and a pair of TDs at +8150 (bet365). I like the Anytime TD bet best along with the 100/1 bet, but I'm touching every one of those so split up your bet how you like. The Rams have the better team, the more reliable offense, the better defense, and the best playmaker on the field in Davante Adams. I like the Rams, even with Nacua out. This line has sat right at Rams -3 all week long, the most important key number. There's still a chance it could move a touch toward Jacksonville before kickoff with Nacua out and the perceived home-field advantage if you want to risk it and wait for Rams -2.5, but it could go the other way and lose the key too. I'll bet now at Rams -3 and live with the result — and hope for a huge Davante Adams day in blue and yellow.

This looks like the most weather-impacted game on the slate in what could be a pretty ugly Sunday around the league. Weather forecasts expect sustained winds of 20-to-25 MPH and gusts at 50 or above with some rain on top of it, and the total has absolutely plummeted, from an already-low 41.5 on Sunday to 35.5 and falling as of publish. That will almost certainly mean a heavy reliance on the run game in this one, and that should be advantage Cleveland. The Browns have the league's No. 1 ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Miami ranks dead last in Defensive DVOA and fourth worst against the run, and the Dolphins rank 31st in Success Rate defensively. This defense just got cooked by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle the last two weeks, to the tune of 18/124 for Vidal and 23/206 for Dowdle — two backup RBs! Add in Breece Hall and James Cook the previous two games, and opposing runners are averaging 18.5 carries for 130 yards a game the last four weeks. The Dolphins have already allowed 806 rushing yards to opposing RBs, most in the league. Only seven other teams have even allowed 600! Cleveland ranks top 10 in EPA per rush and has really found something in rookie Quinshon Judkins. Judkins dropped to only 40% snaps last week in a trailing script against Pittsburgh but played over half the snaps in each of the three previous games, averaging 20.7 carries for 95 YPG. He had at least 82 yards in all three games. Grab Judkins to go over 78.5 rushing yards (Fanatics) and let's take a shot on a couple huge outcomes, 120+ yards at +350 and 150+ yards at +900, in case he really explodes in a sloppy run-run-run game. You can also play over 17.5 longest rush for Judkins at DraftKings if you like. Miami has allowed the last five opposing RB1s a run of over 20 yards, and Judkins already has runs of 31, 32, and 38 yards in his young career.

This looks like the most weather-impacted game on the slate in what could be a pretty ugly Sunday around the league. Weather forecasts expect sustained winds of 20-to-25 MPH and gusts at 50 or above with some rain on top of it, and the total has absolutely plummeted, from an already-low 41.5 on Sunday to 35.5 and falling as of publish. That will almost certainly mean a heavy reliance on the run game in this one, and that should be advantage Cleveland. The Browns have the league's No. 1 ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Miami ranks dead last in Defensive DVOA and fourth worst against the run, and the Dolphins rank 31st in Success Rate defensively. This defense just got cooked by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle the last two weeks, to the tune of 18/124 for Vidal and 23/206 for Dowdle — two backup RBs! Add in Breece Hall and James Cook the previous two games, and opposing runners are averaging 18.5 carries for 130 yards a game the last four weeks. The Dolphins have already allowed 806 rushing yards to opposing RBs, most in the league. Only seven other teams have even allowed 600! Cleveland ranks top 10 in EPA per rush and has really found something in rookie Quinshon Judkins. Judkins dropped to only 40% snaps last week in a trailing script against Pittsburgh but played over half the snaps in each of the three previous games, averaging 20.7 carries for 95 YPG. He had at least 82 yards in all three games. Grab Judkins to go over 78.5 rushing yards (Fanatics) and let's take a shot on a couple huge outcomes, 120+ yards at +350 and 150+ yards at +900, in case he really explodes in a sloppy run-run-run game. You can also play over 17.5 longest rush for Judkins at DraftKings if you like. Miami has allowed the last five opposing RB1s a run of over 20 yards, and Judkins already has runs of 31, 32, and 38 yards in his young career.

This looks like the most weather-impacted game on the slate in what could be a pretty ugly Sunday around the league. Weather forecasts expect sustained winds of 20-to-25 MPH and gusts at 50 or above with some rain on top of it, and the total has absolutely plummeted, from an already-low 41.5 on Sunday to 35.5 and falling as of publish. That will almost certainly mean a heavy reliance on the run game in this one, and that should be advantage Cleveland. The Browns have the league's No. 1 ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Miami ranks dead last in Defensive DVOA and fourth worst against the run, and the Dolphins rank 31st in Success Rate defensively. This defense just got cooked by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle the last two weeks, to the tune of 18/124 for Vidal and 23/206 for Dowdle — two backup RBs! Add in Breece Hall and James Cook the previous two games, and opposing runners are averaging 18.5 carries for 130 yards a game the last four weeks. The Dolphins have already allowed 806 rushing yards to opposing RBs, most in the league. Only seven other teams have even allowed 600! Cleveland ranks top 10 in EPA per rush and has really found something in rookie Quinshon Judkins. Judkins dropped to only 40% snaps last week in a trailing script against Pittsburgh but played over half the snaps in each of the three previous games, averaging 20.7 carries for 95 YPG. He had at least 82 yards in all three games. Grab Judkins to go over 78.5 rushing yards (Fanatics) and let's take a shot on a couple huge outcomes, 120+ yards at +350 and 150+ yards at +900, in case he really explodes in a sloppy run-run-run game. You can also play over 17.5 longest rush for Judkins at DraftKings if you like. Miami has allowed the last five opposing RB1s a run of over 20 yards, and Judkins already has runs of 31, 32, and 38 yards in his young career.

This looks like the most weather-impacted game on the slate in what could be a pretty ugly Sunday around the league. Weather forecasts expect sustained winds of 20-to-25 MPH and gusts at 50 or above with some rain on top of it, and the total has absolutely plummeted, from an already-low 41.5 on Sunday to 35.5 and falling as of publish. That will almost certainly mean a heavy reliance on the run game in this one, and that should be advantage Cleveland. The Browns have the league's No. 1 ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Miami ranks dead last in Defensive DVOA and fourth worst against the run, and the Dolphins rank 31st in Success Rate defensively. This defense just got cooked by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle the last two weeks, to the tune of 18/124 for Vidal and 23/206 for Dowdle — two backup RBs! Add in Breece Hall and James Cook the previous two games, and opposing runners are averaging 18.5 carries for 130 yards a game the last four weeks. The Dolphins have already allowed 806 rushing yards to opposing RBs, most in the league. Only seven other teams have even allowed 600! Cleveland ranks top 10 in EPA per rush and has really found something in rookie Quinshon Judkins. Judkins dropped to only 40% snaps last week in a trailing script against Pittsburgh but played over half the snaps in each of the three previous games, averaging 20.7 carries for 95 YPG. He had at least 82 yards in all three games. Grab Judkins to go over 78.5 rushing yards (Fanatics) and let's take a shot on a couple huge outcomes, 120+ yards at +350 and 150+ yards at +900, in case he really explodes in a sloppy run-run-run game. You can also play over 17.5 longest rush for Judkins at DraftKings if you like. Miami has allowed the last five opposing RB1s a run of over 20 yards, and Judkins already has runs of 31, 32, and 38 yards in his young career.

The weather in this game could be gross. We are looking at winds in the 15-to-20 MPH range and a chance of drizzle on top of it. That could set up more of a run-forward game. Did Chicago fix its run game in the bye week? The Bears ranked 26th, 32nd, 16th, and 22nd in rushing EPA per play before the bye but leapt to 5th against what had been a positive Washington run defense on Monday night. That's huge for Ben Johnson since his teams will always be built around the run, and the healthier Chicago run defense played much better too. That sets up well for a Bears win, and my numbers make this Chicago by around a touchdown, but the Saints continue to hang around in games and the weather makes this too variable to want a side here. Instead I'll keep riding a trend we played last week against the Saints, who have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game this season. They've also allowed at least one TD to the opposing WR1 in four of six games. Rome Odunze has scored a touchdown every game this season but last week — and should have a perfect record if we're being honest, after making a great adjustment on a TD grab that was negated by a questionable penalty. Let's keep it going, with an Odunze Anytime TD at +125 (Hard Rock). Odunze already scored twice in a game earlier this season, and the Saints just allowed a 2-TD game last week, so sprinkle a portion of your bet on two scores at +650 (bet365).

The weather in this game could be gross. We are looking at winds in the 15-to-20 MPH range and a chance of drizzle on top of it. That could set up more of a run-forward game. Did Chicago fix its run game in the bye week? The Bears ranked 26th, 32nd, 16th, and 22nd in rushing EPA per play before the bye but leapt to 5th against what had been a positive Washington run defense on Monday night. That's huge for Ben Johnson since his teams will always be built around the run, and the healthier Chicago run defense played much better too. That sets up well for a Bears win, and my numbers make this Chicago by around a touchdown, but the Saints continue to hang around in games and the weather makes this too variable to want a side here. Instead I'll keep riding a trend we played last week against the Saints, who have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game this season. They've also allowed at least one TD to the opposing WR1 in four of six games. Rome Odunze has scored a touchdown every game this season but last week — and should have a perfect record if we're being honest, after making a great adjustment on a TD grab that was negated by a questionable penalty. Let's keep it going, with an Odunze Anytime TD at +125 (Hard Rock). Odunze already scored twice in a game earlier this season, and the Saints just allowed a 2-TD game last week, so sprinkle a portion of your bet on two scores at +650 (bet365).

Vikings fans may have PTSD with another big game against Philadelphia, and Carson Wentz will certainly relish an opportunity to face his original team. But it's hard to make the Vikings home underdogs in Minnesota, where they still have one of the better home field advantages in football. In fact, it's hard to argue the Eagles are the better team at all right now the way Philadelphia is playing, which could mean the Vikings should be favored here or even pushing -3. The Eagles are just aggressively mid right now. The offense is stagnant, and Vic Fangio's defense has fallen off in a big way. Philadelphia ranks 14th on offense by DVOA and 18th on defense. Again: average. The Eagles aren't running the football particularly well. They're not making big plays or consistent stops on defense. The passing game has been inconsistent at best and invisible at worst. It's hard to identity what exactly this team is doing well right now. Philadelphia can be grateful for the mini-bye it's coming off of after a Thursday night game last week. The Eagles have been besieged by injuries early but saw DTs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, LB Zack Baun, G Landon Dickerson, and CB Quinyon Mitchell all return to practice this week. That's huge news for the Eagles — but it doesn't mean all five will play at 100%, or that they'll make it through the game. Philadelphia's defensive line has struggled in a big way when Carter missed this season, and Mitchell is an extremely important cover man in this game with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the other side — and a hamstring can always act up again. The Vikings are coming off an actual bye, and they badly needed the time off too. Blake Cashman returns at the center of the defense, a huge add as the green-dot linebacker and focal point of the run defense. That's obviously especially important in this matchup. Minnesota's run defense hasn't been great but is much better with Cashman. Minnesota's offensive line is also getting healthy and should be its best of the season. There's even a chance Philadelphia has the worse blocking in this game for the first time in who knows how long. J.J. McCarthy will miss another week — but that's arguably better for the Vikings in the present. McCarthy has only two career starts, and Wentz has been the better QB this season and makes this passing game much more dangerous against a Philly secondary that's been surprisingly beatable. At the end of the day, the best unit on the field is the Vikings defense — especially the pass defense. Kevin Patullo's offense has been so vanilla and predictable for Philadelphia this season, and now one of the most creative defensive play callers in the league, Brian Flores, had two weeks to prep and scheme for it. Flores typically plays heavy zone and brings a ton of blitz — both things Jalen Hurts has struggled at throughout his career and especially this season. That's just not a good setup for Philadelphia. Trends support home underdogs in the first half coming off the bye. If Minnesota can get off to a good start, the Eagles will have to play on the back foot, an uncomfortable spot against this aggressive Flores defense. This is a great spot to back the Vikings.

The Eagles had the 21st pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Philadelphia badly needed a receiver and took one — TCU's Jalen Reagor. He lasted two seasons with the Eagles and has bounced around the league since. The Vikings had the 22nd pick and also needed a receiver. They took Justin Jefferson. Jefferson was passed over by the Eagles, and now Philadelphia will have to spend all game defending him instead. And defending lead receivers has not gone well for this secondary this season. CeeDee Lamb had seven catches for 110 yards in the opener. Puka Nacua caught 11 for 112. Rookie Emeka Egbuka had 101 yards, and Courtland Sutton caught eight balls for 99. Even Wan'Dale Robinson had 6/84 with Malik Nabers out. Philadelphia's secondary just hasn't come anything close to matching last year's dominance, especially against outside receivers, and that makes this a great spot to invest in Jefferson. It looks like Quinyon Mitchell will give it a go, but he's dealing with a hamstring injury, and Philly's other outside corners have struggled. The other injury news is also a boon for Jefferson: J.J. McCarthy will sit again, leaving Carson Wentz starting against his old team. Jefferson averaged only 3.5 catches for 62.5 yards in his two games with McCarthy, struggling to find the ball, but he's looked his usual self in three Wentz games with 7.3 receptions a game for 108 yards. That's more than double the receptions and 72% more yards, with at least 75 yards in all three. Take Jefferson to go over 75.5 receiving yards (Fanatics), and place part of your bet on 100+ yards at +210 (bet365). He's always a threat for 100, and the Eagles have already allowed four games of 99+ yards to opposing WR1s.

The Eagles had the 21st pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Philadelphia badly needed a receiver and took one — TCU's Jalen Reagor. He lasted two seasons with the Eagles and has bounced around the league since. The Vikings had the 22nd pick and also needed a receiver. They took Justin Jefferson. Jefferson was passed over by the Eagles, and now Philadelphia will have to spend all game defending him instead. And defending lead receivers has not gone well for this secondary this season. CeeDee Lamb had seven catches for 110 yards in the opener. Puka Nacua caught 11 for 112. Rookie Emeka Egbuka had 101 yards, and Courtland Sutton caught eight balls for 99. Even Wan'Dale Robinson had 6/84 with Malik Nabers out. Philadelphia's secondary just hasn't come anything close to matching last year's dominance, especially against outside receivers, and that makes this a great spot to invest in Jefferson. It looks like Quinyon Mitchell will give it a go, but he's dealing with a hamstring injury, and Philly's other outside corners have struggled. The other injury news is also a boon for Jefferson: J.J. McCarthy will sit again, leaving Carson Wentz starting against his old team. Jefferson averaged only 3.5 catches for 62.5 yards in his two games with McCarthy, struggling to find the ball, but he's looked his usual self in three Wentz games with 7.3 receptions a game for 108 yards. That's more than double the receptions and 72% more yards, with at least 75 yards in all three. Take Jefferson to go over 75.5 receiving yards (Fanatics), and place part of your bet on 100+ yards at +210 (bet365). He's always a threat for 100, and the Eagles have already allowed four games of 99+ yards to opposing WR1s.

🔥 Week 7 Hot Read 🔥 On principle.

Welcome to the Vrabel Bowl. Mike Vrabel returns to face his old team and could have revenge on his mind after an interesting ending with Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Titans just fired his replacement Brian Callahan, replacing him with veteran retread, Mike McCoy. Could the Titans see a dead-cat bounce post-Callahan? Home underdogs of seven or more points are 18-1-2 ATS the first eight games of the season since 2022, already responsible for Giants-Eagles and Browns-Packers upsets this season. The matchup sets up well for Drake Maye and the Patriots passing attack, though, and the Patriots will surely score some points. Typically, Josh McDaniels offenses prefer to score by running it in if they're close to the end zone. Tennessee may be happy to oblige. The Titans have already allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing RBs, at least one to every RB1 Tennessee has faced this season, and that includes multiple TDs to RBs in half those games. So which Patriots RB do we play? The answer may not be as complicated as it seems. Antonio Gibson is on IR, so he's out, and it's getting pretty clear which RB gets the looks in the red zone. Rhamondre Stevenson has 15 red zone carries already to just three for rookie TreVeyon Henderson, and he's up 8-to-1 on carries inside the 10, scoring both of his touchdowns from there. That matches what we saw last season, where five of Stevenson's seven TDs came on his 17 carries inside the 10. Keep it simple and take the short yardage back in Rhamondre Stevenson for an Anytime TD at +120 (Hard Rock), and put a piece of your bet on two scores at +450 (bet365).

Welcome to the Vrabel Bowl. Mike Vrabel returns to face his old team and could have revenge on his mind after an interesting ending with Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Titans just fired his replacement Brian Callahan, replacing him with veteran retread, Mike McCoy. Could the Titans see a dead-cat bounce post-Callahan? Home underdogs of seven or more points are 18-1-2 ATS the first eight games of the season since 2022, already responsible for Giants-Eagles and Browns-Packers upsets this season. The matchup sets up well for Drake Maye and the Patriots passing attack, though, and the Patriots will surely score some points. Typically, Josh McDaniels offenses prefer to score by running it in if they're close to the end zone. Tennessee may be happy to oblige. The Titans have already allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing RBs, at least one to every RB1 Tennessee has faced this season, and that includes multiple TDs to RBs in half those games. So which Patriots RB do we play? The answer may not be as complicated as it seems. Antonio Gibson is on IR, so he's out, and it's getting pretty clear which RB gets the looks in the red zone. Rhamondre Stevenson has 15 red zone carries already to just three for rookie TreVeyon Henderson, and he's up 8-to-1 on carries inside the 10, scoring both of his touchdowns from there. That matches what we saw last season, where five of Stevenson's seven TDs came on his 17 carries inside the 10. Keep it simple and take the short yardage back in Rhamondre Stevenson for an Anytime TD at +120 (Hard Rock), and put a piece of your bet on two scores at +700 (FD).

For a second straight week, I'm backing a New York team against the Broncos. Last week it was the Jets in London, and it was a disgusting game. There was a lot of rightful talk about just how bad the Jets offense was in that game — and how well the Broncos defense played — but it was perhaps a bit overlooked how poorly Denver's offense played too. The Broncos struggled to move the ball all game and trailed late, probably deserving to lose a game where the Jets had negative passing yards. Denver's offense isn't even average right now, and it's clear Sean Payton does not trust Bo Nix. The Giants defense has disappointed this season. The run defense has looked beatable and ranks near the bottom of the league by DVOA, but Shane Bowen's defense pushes teams to pass. Only one opposing RB has over 12 carries against the Giants this season. That means this game will likely fall upon the shoulders of Nix and the passing attack. Don't expect a ton of fireworks in this one. The Giants offense is built upon a pair of rookies in Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, though the duo have played well and are being helped by the return of LT Andrew Thomas giving the offensive line a huge boost. Still, how is anyone going to consistently move the ball or score in this game? Brian Daboll road unders are 61% for his career, and Daboll games with totals under 44 are also 63% to the under. That might make it feel like the under is the better play, but with such a low total and an under lean, that makes 7.5 points on the spread even more valuable. Denver has four wins this season, but three of those came by one score. The Giants don't need to win this game — just keep it close, like the Jets did, and prevent Denver from pulling away. Last season the Broncos beat up on bad teams. Bo Nix was invincible, perfect against the spread as a favorite. This year, he's 1-3 ATS. But the biggest advantage in this game was there before the season even started. The Giants are coming off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday, with a chance for this young offense to regroup and find its legs. The Broncos, on the other hand, just played Sunday morning in London. NFL teams have the option to take a bye after playing overseas but Denver turned that option down and now will play with weak, tired legs seven days later. NFL teams that return from London without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 15 of the 17 games the following week. That's not a huge sample, but an 88% hit rate is enough to tell us what our bodies already know — these tired teams are running out of juice late in the following game, fighting for their lives. If the Giants are tied or leading in the fourth quarter, they should be able to cover +7.5. Be sure to grab the half point over the key number if you can at ESPN Bet, but play at +7 if necessary. And if the Giants are in the game late, it's obligatory to sprinkle the moneyline at +320 (ESPN Bet). The Jets couldn't quite get over the line last Sunday, but maybe the Giants will finish this tired team off.

For a second straight week, I'm backing a New York team against the Broncos. Last week it was the Jets in London, and it was a disgusting game. There was a lot of rightful talk about just how bad the Jets offense was in that game — and how well the Broncos defense played — but it was perhaps a bit overlooked how poorly Denver's offense played too. The Broncos struggled to move the ball all game and trailed late, probably deserving to lose a game where the Jets had negative passing yards. Denver's offense isn't even average right now, and it's clear Sean Payton does not trust Bo Nix. The Giants defense has disappointed this season. The run defense has looked beatable and ranks near the bottom of the league by DVOA, but Shane Bowen's defense pushes teams to pass. Only one opposing RB has over 12 carries against the Giants this season. That means this game will likely fall upon the shoulders of Nix and the passing attack. Don't expect a ton of fireworks in this one. The Giants offense is built upon a pair of rookies in Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, though the duo have played well and are being helped by the return of LT Andrew Thomas giving the offensive line a huge boost. Still, how is anyone going to consistently move the ball or score in this game? Brian Daboll road unders are 61% for his career, and Daboll games with totals under 44 are also 63% to the under. That might make it feel like the under is the better play, but with such a low total and an under lean, that makes 7.5 points on the spread even more valuable. Denver has four wins this season, but three of those came by one score. The Giants don't need to win this game — just keep it close, like the Jets did, and prevent Denver from pulling away. Last season the Broncos beat up on bad teams. Bo Nix was invincible, perfect against the spread as a favorite. This year, he's 1-3 ATS. But the biggest advantage in this game was there before the season even started. The Giants are coming off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday, with a chance for this young offense to regroup and find its legs. The Broncos, on the other hand, just played Sunday morning in London. NFL teams have the option to take a bye after playing overseas but Denver turned that option down and now will play with weak, tired legs seven days later. NFL teams that return from London without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 15 of the 17 games the following week. That's not a huge sample, but an 88% hit rate is enough to tell us what our bodies already know — these tired teams are running out of juice late in the following game, fighting for their lives. If the Giants are tied or leading in the fourth quarter, they should be able to cover +7.5. Be sure to grab the half point over the key number if you can at ESPN Bet, but play at +7 if necessary. And if the Giants are in the game late, it's obligatory to sprinkle the moneyline at +320 (ESPN Bet). The Jets couldn't quite get over the line last Sunday, but maybe the Giants will finish this tired team off.

WEEK 7 LOOKAHEAD — Packers -4.5 at Cards (fd) Sometimes with a Lookahead, you just have to keep it simple and look at what we expect this weekend. The Packers are rested home favorites of two touchdowns, playing against a Bengals team so desperate for points that they turned to Joe Flacco this week. Green Bay is a massive favorite and should roll and remind everyone of its status as a Super Bowl contender. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are touchdown underdogs in Indianapolis and expected to lose. We still don't know if Kyler Murray is healthy enough to play now or next week, and if he does play, the risk for re-injury is high. If the Cards lose and the Packers roll, this line likely reopens around -6 or even -7 on Sunday night — and that's about where it should be for two teams in different weight classes. Come on, the Colts are -7.5 to Arizona but the rested Packers are -4.5? Make it make sense. Five, six, and seven are all key numbers these days, so there's value grabbing this at -4.5 before that entire range. We're never getting Packers -4.5 again after Sunday's games, so grab it now at FanDuel.

We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.

We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.

We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.

We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.

We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles. Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week. Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury. Both of these offenses ranks top 10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points. The defenses only help the cause. Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys defense has been. It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid 50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout. But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out. Only one of the last 13 games these rivals have played finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42. It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns. And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play even outside the rivalry. Washington just lost by one on Monday night, but every other Commanders game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too, so 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them! Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common. Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games, and Washington is at 40% during that stretch. Okay, so which side wins big? I have no idea! So I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin. Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM). Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes. Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points. Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator. Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores, so let's also play either side to win by 14 or more. Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%). Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points. If you do feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to play just the side you like. Though if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback. I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.

We just watched the Falcons win a big one Monday night against the Bills. That was an impressive performance but does mean this isn't a great spot for Atlanta, playing on short rest after such a big win for the franchise. Still, these just look like two teams headed in opposite directions. Atlanta had that weird shutout loss to Carolina but has otherwise been pretty impressive on the season, especially defensively. As for the 49ers, the record still looks good but the injury report is long and depressing. Both Brock Purdy and Mac Jones entered the week banged up, and so did receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. Purdy and Pearsall have been ruled out. Jones and Jennings will play but at less than 100%, though it does look like George Kittle returns. Even so, this team is missing its franchise QB and arguably its top two receivers — don't forget Brandon Aiyuk is still out too! But the defense is in even worse shape. It looks like both CB Renardo Green and ED Yatur Gross-Matos could miss. You may not know those names but they're probably San Francisco's top option at each spot — in part because of the cascading effect of injuries to San Francisco's two defensive superstars, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, both out for the season. San Francisco is a fringe bottom 10 defense by DVOA on the season and almost certainly even worse than those metrics would indicate, since Bosa and Warner played for much of that. The Niners are getting zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 31st in pressure rate on the season, and Atlanta ranks lowest in pressure rate allowed. Michael Penix should have plenty of time to attack this defense. San Francisco also plays a ton of light-box defense, at 98% of its snaps by far the most in the league, typically relying on Fred Warner to clean up the back end when necessary. Atlanta ranks fourth in EPA per play against light boxes, and Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier could bust some more big plays if they face light fronts all game. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is somewhat beatable against the run but the 49ers have not run well all season. Christian McCaffrey is seeing volume, but the 49ers rank bottom five rushing by DVOA. San Francisco will need to pass, and the Falcons lead the league in pass defense DVOA. Atlanta's small speedy pass rushers have really gotten after the opposing quarterback. The 49ers have done a great job at limiting pressure rate, but Atlanta ranks top five in pressures and the 49ers are 27th in EPA per play when under pressure. That's an area where Purdy's loss is even more significant. Purdy can move and create but Jones is much more of a statue, even more so while he plays through his own injuries. I waited on this one, hoping we might hit Atlanta +3 if the right injury news came out, but it's not going to get there with Purdy out. I'm happy to grab Atlanta +2.5 at ESPN Bet and see if the Falcons can pull off a second straight primetime upset.

🔥 Week 7 Hot Read 🔥

The Bucs continue to be ravaged by injuries. Everyone focuses on Bucky Irving and all the receivers, but the secondary is also banged up and has looked the part. The Bucs have allowed among the top 10 most yards allowed to WRs this season, and opposing WR1s are averaging 10.7 targets a game, with every one of them at nine targets or more. That includes eight, eight, and 10 receptions to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — all of them on run-first teams, too — and it's also meant 132 and 142 yards to WR1s the last two weeks with the secondary ailing. These teams played three times the last two seasons. The Lions won two of the three and badly outplayed the Bucs in the other, more than doubling them in yardage. Jared Goff averaged 316 yards passing in those games as the Lions pivoted from their usual run-heavy script against a great run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely ate. Here are his lines: 12 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD 8 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions, 119 yards St. Brown averaged 10.3 catches for 107 yards, and it makes sense in this matchup. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA per play over the middle of the field defensively, and that's where the Lions live. Detroit runs more of it's plays there than any team and sits at 4th in EPA per play. The Lions are also first in short passing EPA while the Bucs defense ranks 29th. Tampa's linebackers struggle to cover the middle of the field. Remember the Puka Nacua escalator a few weeks ago? It's ARSB SZN. I'm building an entire Amon-Ra escalator, all the way to the sun, and I'm building it mostly around receptions. Let's start with over 6.5 receptions at -137 (DraftKings). Remember, every WR1 against the Bucs has at least nine targets this season. St. Brown has a career-high catch rate of 86%, so that nine targets at that rate would already put him at a floor of eight catches. He's gone over 6.5 in all but one game this season with games of 7, 7, 8, 9, and 9 catches. Up next is eight catches. Since the start of 2022 in the first full year in Ben Johnson's offense, St. Brown has hit at least 100 yards in 15 of his 20 games with eight or more catches. That makes for an easy SGP: 8+ receptions for 100+ yards at +292 (DraftKings). If you want to just stick with the receptions, nine catches is a good play at +220 (FanDuel), with ARSB already doing that twice this season. You can play 10 catches at +379, 11 at +630, 12 at +1040, and 14 at +3000 at DraftKings. St. Brown has five games with 10+ catches and at least 119 yards in this stretch, so I'll swap in an SGP of 10+ receptions and 120+ yards at +750 for the 10-catch spot in the escalator, then nibble all the way up. Oh, you thought we were done? I've got a couple more. Take that ARSB 8/100 and add in 300 yards for Goff and we get to +700 at DraftKings. Add a Lions cover on top and it's +1600. I'm also ready to invest in an awards ticket. St. Brown is a very similar stylistic player to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two names at the top of the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds. That's the sort of receiver dominating the league with huge stats in 2025, and if ARSB has a big game Monday night in a huge matchup, he should vault up the rankings too. Amon-Ra already leads the league with six receiving touchdowns, and he has a real shot at both the receiving TD record and the receptions record in a season. Add in the injury history for Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nucua, who's already hurt, and it's worth buying an OPOY ticket for Amon-Ra St. Brown at +3500 at ESPN Bet. He fits the profile and could have as good a shot as anyone.

The Bucs continue to be ravaged by injuries. Everyone focuses on Bucky Irving and all the receivers, but the secondary is also banged up and has looked the part. The Bucs have allowed among the top 10 most yards allowed to WRs this season, and opposing WR1s are averaging 10.7 targets a game, with every one of them at nine targets or more. That includes eight, eight, and 10 receptions to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — all of them on run-first teams, too — and it's also meant 132 and 142 yards to WR1s the last two weeks with the secondary ailing. These teams played three times the last two seasons. The Lions won two of the three and badly outplayed the Bucs in the other, more than doubling them in yardage. Jared Goff averaged 316 yards passing in those games as the Lions pivoted from their usual run-heavy script against a great run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely ate. Here are his lines: 12 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD 8 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions, 119 yards St. Brown averaged 10.3 catches for 107 yards, and it makes sense in this matchup. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA per play over the middle of the field defensively, and that's where the Lions live. Detroit runs more of it's plays there than any team and sits at 4th in EPA per play. The Lions are also first in short passing EPA while the Bucs defense ranks 29th. Tampa's linebackers struggle to cover the middle of the field. Remember the Puka Nacua escalator a few weeks ago? It's ARSB SZN. I'm building an entire Amon-Ra escalator, all the way to the sun, and I'm building it mostly around receptions. Let's start with over 6.5 receptions at -137 (DraftKings). Remember, every WR1 against the Bucs has at least nine targets this season. St. Brown has a career-high catch rate of 86%, so that nine targets at that rate would already put him at a floor of eight catches. He's gone over 6.5 in all but one game this season with games of 7, 7, 8, 9, and 9 catches. Up next is eight catches. Since the start of 2022 in the first full year in Ben Johnson's offense, St. Brown has hit at least 100 yards in 15 of his 20 games with eight or more catches. That makes for an easy SGP: 8+ receptions for 100+ yards at +292 (DraftKings). If you want to just stick with the receptions, nine catches is a good play at +220 (FanDuel), with ARSB already doing that twice this season. You can play 10 catches at +379, 11 at +630, 12 at +1040, and 14 at +3000 at DraftKings. St. Brown has five games with 10+ catches and at least 119 yards in this stretch, so I'll swap in an SGP of 10+ receptions and 120+ yards at +750 for the 10-catch spot in the escalator, then nibble all the way up. Oh, you thought we were done? I've got a couple more. Take that ARSB 8/100 and add in 300 yards for Goff and we get to +700 at DraftKings. Add a Lions cover on top and it's +1600. I'm also ready to invest in an awards ticket. St. Brown is a very similar stylistic player to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two names at the top of the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds. That's the sort of receiver dominating the league with huge stats in 2025, and if ARSB has a big game Monday night in a huge matchup, he should vault up the rankings too. Amon-Ra already leads the league with six receiving touchdowns, and he has a real shot at both the receiving TD record and the receptions record in a season. Add in the injury history for Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nucua, who's already hurt, and it's worth buying an OPOY ticket for Amon-Ra St. Brown at +3500 at ESPN Bet. He fits the profile and could have as good a shot as anyone.

The Bucs continue to be ravaged by injuries. Everyone focuses on Bucky Irving and all the receivers, but the secondary is also banged up and has looked the part. The Bucs have allowed among the top 10 most yards allowed to WRs this season, and opposing WR1s are averaging 10.7 targets a game, with every one of them at nine targets or more. That includes eight, eight, and 10 receptions to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — all of them on run-first teams, too — and it's also meant 132 and 142 yards to WR1s the last two weeks with the secondary ailing. These teams played three times the last two seasons. The Lions won two of the three and badly outplayed the Bucs in the other, more than doubling them in yardage. Jared Goff averaged 316 yards passing in those games as the Lions pivoted from their usual run-heavy script against a great run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely ate. Here are his lines: 12 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD 8 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions, 119 yards St. Brown averaged 10.3 catches for 107 yards, and it makes sense in this matchup. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA per play over the middle of the field defensively, and that's where the Lions live. Detroit runs more of it's plays there than any team and sits at 4th in EPA per play. The Lions are also first in short passing EPA while the Bucs defense ranks 29th. Tampa's linebackers struggle to cover the middle of the field. Remember the Puka Nacua escalator a few weeks ago? It's ARSB SZN. I'm building an entire Amon-Ra escalator, all the way to the sun, and I'm building it mostly around receptions. Let's start with over 6.5 receptions at -137 (DraftKings). Remember, every WR1 against the Bucs has at least nine targets this season. St. Brown has a career-high catch rate of 86%, so that nine targets at that rate would already put him at a floor of eight catches. He's gone over 6.5 in all but one game this season with games of 7, 7, 8, 9, and 9 catches. Up next is eight catches. Since the start of 2022 in the first full year in Ben Johnson's offense, St. Brown has hit at least 100 yards in 15 of his 20 games with eight or more catches. That makes for an easy SGP: 8+ receptions for 100+ yards at +292 (DraftKings). If you want to just stick with the receptions, nine catches is a good play at +220 (FanDuel), with ARSB already doing that twice this season. You can play 10 catches at +379, 11 at +630, 12 at +1040, and 14 at +3000 at DraftKings. St. Brown has five games with 10+ catches and at least 119 yards in this stretch, so I'll swap in an SGP of 10+ receptions and 120+ yards at +750 for the 10-catch spot in the escalator, then nibble all the way up. Oh, you thought we were done? I've got a couple more. Take that ARSB 8/100 and add in 300 yards for Goff and we get to +700 at DraftKings. Add a Lions cover on top and it's +1600. I'm also ready to invest in an awards ticket. St. Brown is a very similar stylistic player to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two names at the top of the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds. That's the sort of receiver dominating the league with huge stats in 2025, and if ARSB has a big game Monday night in a huge matchup, he should vault up the rankings too. Amon-Ra already leads the league with six receiving touchdowns, and he has a real shot at both the receiving TD record and the receptions record in a season. Add in the injury history for Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nucua, who's already hurt, and it's worth buying an OPOY ticket for Amon-Ra St. Brown at +3500 at ESPN Bet. He fits the profile and could have as good a shot as anyone.

The Bucs continue to be ravaged by injuries. Everyone focuses on Bucky Irving and all the receivers, but the secondary is also banged up and has looked the part. The Bucs have allowed among the top 10 most yards allowed to WRs this season, and opposing WR1s are averaging 10.7 targets a game, with every one of them at nine targets or more. That includes eight, eight, and 10 receptions to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — all of them on run-first teams, too — and it's also meant 132 and 142 yards to WR1s the last two weeks with the secondary ailing. These teams played three times the last two seasons. The Lions won two of the three and badly outplayed the Bucs in the other, more than doubling them in yardage. Jared Goff averaged 316 yards passing in those games as the Lions pivoted from their usual run-heavy script against a great run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely ate. Here are his lines: 12 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD 8 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions, 119 yards St. Brown averaged 10.3 catches for 107 yards, and it makes sense in this matchup. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA per play over the middle of the field defensively, and that's where the Lions live. Detroit runs more of it's plays there than any team and sits at 4th in EPA per play. The Lions are also first in short passing EPA while the Bucs defense ranks 29th. Tampa's linebackers struggle to cover the middle of the field. Remember the Puka Nacua escalator a few weeks ago? It's ARSB SZN. I'm building an entire Amon-Ra escalator, all the way to the sun, and I'm building it mostly around receptions. Let's start with over 6.5 receptions at -137 (DraftKings). Remember, every WR1 against the Bucs has at least nine targets this season. St. Brown has a career-high catch rate of 86%, so that nine targets at that rate would already put him at a floor of eight catches. He's gone over 6.5 in all but one game this season with games of 7, 7, 8, 9, and 9 catches. Up next is eight catches. Since the start of 2022 in the first full year in Ben Johnson's offense, St. Brown has hit at least 100 yards in 15 of his 20 games with eight or more catches. That makes for an easy SGP: 8+ receptions for 100+ yards at +292 (DraftKings). If you want to just stick with the receptions, nine catches is a good play at +220 (FanDuel), with ARSB already doing that twice this season. You can play 10 catches at +379, 11 at +630, 12 at +1040, and 14 at +3000 at DraftKings. St. Brown has five games with 10+ catches and at least 119 yards in this stretch, so I'll swap in an SGP of 10+ receptions and 120+ yards at +750 for the 10-catch spot in the escalator, then nibble all the way up. Oh, you thought we were done? I've got a couple more. Take that ARSB 8/100 and add in 300 yards for Goff and we get to +700 at DraftKings. Add a Lions cover on top and it's +1600. I'm also ready to invest in an awards ticket. St. Brown is a very similar stylistic player to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two names at the top of the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds. That's the sort of receiver dominating the league with huge stats in 2025, and if ARSB has a big game Monday night in a huge matchup, he should vault up the rankings too. Amon-Ra already leads the league with six receiving touchdowns, and he has a real shot at both the receiving TD record and the receptions record in a season. Add in the injury history for Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nucua, who's already hurt, and it's worth buying an OPOY ticket for Amon-Ra St. Brown at +3500 at ESPN Bet. He fits the profile and could have as good a shot as anyone.

The Bucs continue to be ravaged by injuries. Everyone focuses on Bucky Irving and all the receivers, but the secondary is also banged up and has looked the part. The Bucs have allowed among the top 10 most yards allowed to WRs this season, and opposing WR1s are averaging 10.7 targets a game, with every one of them at nine targets or more. That includes eight, eight, and 10 receptions to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — all of them on run-first teams, too — and it's also meant 132 and 142 yards to WR1s the last two weeks with the secondary ailing. These teams played three times the last two seasons. The Lions won two of the three and badly outplayed the Bucs in the other, more than doubling them in yardage. Jared Goff averaged 316 yards passing in those games as the Lions pivoted from their usual run-heavy script against a great run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely ate. Here are his lines: 12 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD 8 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions, 119 yards St. Brown averaged 10.3 catches for 107 yards, and it makes sense in this matchup. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA per play over the middle of the field defensively, and that's where the Lions live. Detroit runs more of it's plays there than any team and sits at 4th in EPA per play. The Lions are also first in short passing EPA while the Bucs defense ranks 29th. Tampa's linebackers struggle to cover the middle of the field. Remember the Puka Nacua escalator a few weeks ago? It's ARSB SZN. I'm building an entire Amon-Ra escalator, all the way to the sun, and I'm building it mostly around receptions. Let's start with over 6.5 receptions at -137 (DraftKings). Remember, every WR1 against the Bucs has at least nine targets this season. St. Brown has a career-high catch rate of 86%, so that nine targets at that rate would already put him at a floor of eight catches. He's gone over 6.5 in all but one game this season with games of 7, 7, 8, 9, and 9 catches. Up next is eight catches. Since the start of 2022 in the first full year in Ben Johnson's offense, St. Brown has hit at least 100 yards in 15 of his 20 games with eight or more catches. That makes for an easy SGP: 8+ receptions for 100+ yards at +292 (DraftKings). If you want to just stick with the receptions, nine catches is a good play at +220 (FanDuel), with ARSB already doing that twice this season. You can play 10 catches at +379, 11 at +630, 12 at +1040, and 14 at +3000 at DraftKings. St. Brown has five games with 10+ catches and at least 119 yards in this stretch, so I'll swap in an SGP of 10+ receptions and 120+ yards at +750 for the 10-catch spot in the escalator, then nibble all the way up. Oh, you thought we were done? I've got a couple more. Take that ARSB 8/100 and add in 300 yards for Goff and we get to +700 at DraftKings. Add a Lions cover on top and it's +1600. I'm also ready to invest in an awards ticket. St. Brown is a very similar stylistic player to Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two names at the top of the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds. That's the sort of receiver dominating the league with huge stats in 2025, and if ARSB has a big game Monday night in a huge matchup, he should vault up the rankings too. Amon-Ra already leads the league with six receiving touchdowns, and he has a real shot at both the receiving TD record and the receptions record in a season. Add in the injury history for Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nucua, who's already hurt, and it's worth buying an OPOY ticket for Amon-Ra St. Brown at +3500 at ESPN Bet. He fits the profile and could have as good a shot as anyone.

I was eyeballing Seattle already on the Hot Read last Sunday but waited at Seattle -3, hoping we might sneak a -2.5 in there. It looks more likely that this slips to -3.5 at this point, the wrong side of the key number, so I'll fire on -3 while it's there. I'm just going to keep riding these Seahawks, top five in my power ratings and still seemingly underrated at books. Seattle is really good! They rank top four in DVOA on offense, defense, and special teams — hey, that's everything! — and are the No. 1 DVOA team, the second best 4-2 squad ever. Seattle's defense continues to be very good under Mike Macdonald, and the special teams remain elite and are even more dangerous this season with the dynamic kickoff rules. The offense has been the real surprise, especially Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the downfield passing attack. Houston has a strong defense in most areas, but one weakness this season has been against the deep pass, where the Texans rank just 21st in EPA per play. Seattle is lapping the field in deep passes at an absurd 1.44 EPA per play, an outlier elite No. 1 rank, and it's not a tiny sample either since the Seahawks pass deep more than almost any team in the league. Houston is probably a touch underrated after its tough start, but the underlying metrics are also benefiting from running it up on an awful Titans team and the corpse of the Ravens. Houston's offense is still by far the weakest unit in this matchup. It's possible Nick Caley's unit found some answers during the bye, but even then, this poor offensive line should struggle against Seattle's elite pressure rate. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball at all, and the Texans rank just 25th in Success Rate, even after inflating that number against two awful defenses. Seattle is not that. Houston should struggle to score, and I trust the Seahawks to find enough offense even against a tough defense. Give me Seahawks -3.

WEEK 8 LOOKAHEAD  Usually we take favorites on the Lookahead before the line gets even longer, but this is all about the key number. What happens with these teams this weekend? Both teams play in coin-flippy games, but it's easy to see this shifting towards the Vikings. The Chargers are super banged up, especially on the offensive line, and Jonathan Taylor could be in for a big game Sunday. Los Angeles is not far from a three-game losing streak right now, so another poor showing could really drop public perception. The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off the bye and getting healthier, and a home win against the Eagles would really boost their status. Minnesota's defense looks like the best unit on the field, particularly the pass defense. The Chargers are missing their top two RBs and leaning very pass-heavy, and those offensive line injuries could be a big problem against this attacking Vikings defensive front. There's not much home-field advantage for the Chargers these days either, if any. But in the end, this is all about the number. Getting the +3.5 is huge here. The Chargers already have wins this season by two and three points. That's a Minnesota cover with this spread. The Vikings also have a three-point loss already, another scenario where the Vikings cover +3.5. Three is still by far the most important key number in the NFL, and I don't expect this to be available after Sunday, so I'm grabbing the hook on the right side of the key number while it's there at FanDuel.