Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop (Feb. 25): Can Lauri Markkanen Grab 12 Rebounds?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: On Monday, we have a lot of options on the board with 11-game NBA and six-game NHL slates.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

153-129-9, +21.85 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 62-50-2, +5.63 Units
• NHL: 49-58-6, -3.93 Units
• Golf: 4-4-1, +0.65 Units
• NASCAR: 4-2-0. +2.55 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotics: 13-0-0. +7.23 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop for Monday, Feb. 25: Lauri Markkanen Over/Under 11.5 Rebounds

• Over 11.5: -130
• Under 11.5: +100

We have a full NBA slate today, and one game in particular has caught my eye: Bulls-Bucks (8 p.m. ET).

This shouldn't be an especially great game. The Bucks are 45-14 while the Bulls are 16-44. Milwaukee is a -7.5 favorite. This probably won't be a very competitive game.

But Chicago power forward Lauri Markkanen is intriguing, specifically the under on his rebounds prop.

We have him projected for 9.3 rebounds in the FantasyLabs Props Tool. For the season, he has 9.0 rebounds on 32.6 minutes per game.

We have Markkanen projected for 33.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, so we're expecting a slight bump in playing time, but nothing extreme enough to result in a significant increase in rebounding opportunities.

And it's not as if Markkanen has an exploitable matchup against the Bucks, who are middle of the road with 7.9 defensive and 2.3 offensive rebounds per game allowed to opposing power forwards.

In just eight of 37 games this year has Markkanen had 12-plus rebounds.

With +100 odds, he has a 50% implied probability of having fewer than 11.5 rebounds, but I think his true odds are closer to 70%.

I'd bet under 11.5 rebounds all the way down to -130.

The Pick: Under 11.5 (+100)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.