NBA Expert Betting Picks (Friday, Jan. 10): Best Bets for Heat vs. Nets, Bucks vs. Kings, More
Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
There are 10 games on Friday evening’s NBA schedule, and our experts are betting on these specific matchups:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets
- 8 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
- 9 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
- 10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
See which bets they’re making below.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
John Ewing: Heat at Nets
- Spread: Heat -3.5
- Over/Under: 217
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Duncan Robinson scored 17 points in the Heats win over the Pacers on Wednesday. Robinson, a 3-point specialist, leads Miami with 119 made threes. He ranks is eighth in the league in 3-point percentage (44.1%).
Robinson can score and in tonight’s game against the Nets, oddsmakers opened his over/under for points scored at 11.5. This is in line with Robinson’s season average of 11.9 points.
A matchup against Brooklyn could be more difficult for Robinson as the Nets rank third in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage (43.3%). The FantasyLabs player prop tool projects Robinson to score 8.4 points on average.
Based on the projection, the under 11.5 points prop has a grade of 10 out of 10. With an unfavorable matchup, I like Robinson to go under his point total of 11.5.
The PICK: Under 11.5 points
Brandon Anderson: Spurs at Grizzlies
- Spread: Grizzlies -1
- Over/Under: 230.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
Spurs! Grizzlies! Dillon Brooks and Jae Crowder! Bryn Forbes and Trey Lyles! One of these teams will win their 17th game tonight and wake up on Jan. 11 as the No. 8 team in the West.
So what’s going to happen? Honestly, who knows. There’s one thing that’s becoming increasingly clear: there will be points. Let me give you a flurry of numbers, all thanks to a couple easy clicks on our handy dandy Action Network app. The Spurs’ over is 8-2 in their past 10 games; the Grizzlies’ over is 7-3 in that stretch.
San Antonio’s over is 22-13-1 on the season; Memphis’ is 21-17. The Grizzlies over is 13-7 when they are at home; the Spurs over is 10-6 on the road. San Antonio’s over is also 13-6-1 when they’re underdogs, as they are slightly right now.
These two teams are on the cusp of the playoff race because of pace and offense, and that means points. All the better that the public is going the other direction, already betting this down from its opening line of 234. Grab the over 230 or wait for another point or two if you dare, and enjoy the ride.
The PICK: Over 230.5
Bryan Mears: Magic at Suns
- Spread: Suns -3.5
- Over/Under: 217.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
It’s tough days for the Magic, who have been ravaged by injuries.
They’ve had to ask for injury exceptions for both Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu, confirming they’re likely out for the rest of the season. Michael Carter-Williams is without a timetable to return with a AC joint injury.
DJ Augustin is out tonight with a knee contusion. Aaron Gordon is questionable with a tight right calf. Ouch.
From the Labs NBA Insiders page:
“The Magic will likely lean a bit more on Markelle Fultz and Terrence Ross in his absence, with Josh Magette possibly getting into the rotation as the primary backup behind Fultz.”
Not to be confused with Corey Maggette, Josh is a 30-year-old point guard who went undrafted a decade ago out of Alabama-Huntsville and has played overseas or in the G League since. No offense to Magette, but if he’s in the rotation, things aren’t looking too rosy.
They’re not without talent admittedly. Over the last two weeks, they rank ninth in the league with a +5.7 point differential. Nikola Vucevic and Gordon are very solid players, and guys like Markelle Fultz have really stepped up this season. But their recent games haven’t exactly been tough, with two vs. the Wizards, home against the Hawks and one against the reeling Nets.
Vuc has been their best player metrics-wise: The team has been 9.7 points/100 better with him on the floor vs. off. The majority of that has predictably been on offense, as the team has posted an eFG% 3.8% higher with him on vs. off.
Gordon doesn’t have awesome on/off differential splits, although I think that’s underestimating his value to this team — especially one so thin. The team has gotten better shots with him, including getting out in transition more frequently, especially off live rebounds. Without him they could get hot — the NBA is way more random than we want to admit — but things will certainly be more tough for Orlando.
Of course, the Suns are not exactly a fun team to back lately. After a hot start to the year, they’ve really regressed. Over the last two weeks, they’ve posted a Net Rating of -3.7. The defense has especially been atrocious.
But they’re getting healthier, and that’s potentially a huge advantage tonight if Gordon isn’t able to go. If that’s the case, I like the Suns -3 at home and wouldn’t mind a taste of the over, either.
The LEAN: Suns -3
Matt Moore: Bucks at Kings
- Spread: Kings +8.5
- Over/Under: 224.5
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
This is my safety blanket. The Bucks under Budenholzer are 10-5-1 (66%) against the spread as a road favorite of 8.5 points or more overall.
The Kings are 4-4 ATS as a home dog and are 1-4 ATS vs. teams over .500 in the last month after a hot stretch of 8-0 in November that boosted their ATS numbers.
The Kings are a really good transition team, which is a key matchup vs. the Bucks, but Milwaukee is so good I’m trusting them. Bucks take care of business with a spread under double-digits.
The PICK: Bucks -8.5