Long-Term NBA Trends To Know For the Season’s Second Half

Long-Term NBA Trends To Know For the Season’s Second Half article feature image
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyrie Irving (11), LeBron James (23), Kawhi Leonard (2).

  • Are you ready for the second half of the NBA season? Here are some key trends to keep an eye out for after the All-Star break.
  • Those trends include coaches who notoriously struggle in the second half, the Western Conference's home domination and more.

The NBA teams have about 25 games left in the regular season with the All-Star break now in the rearview mirror.

Let’s take a look at a few betting notes and trends to get you ready for the second half.

Which Teams Will Hold On?

Entering the 2019 NBA All-Star break, here are your division leaders:

Over the last decade, 60 total teams have entered the All-Star break with a lead in their respective division.

Of those 60 teams, 53 ended up winning the division at season’s end (88.3%). None of the seven teams to make a comeback to win the division in the second half did so from more than four games back of the division leader.

With the Raptors, Bucks and Warriors holding at least 5.5-game division leads, it will most likely be the Rockets, Hornets or Nuggets that could eventually give up division leads in the second half.

Second Half Experience

If Vogel is on one side of the spectrum, Erik Spoelstra is on the other. The Miami Heat coach is a combined 130-109-5 (54.5%) against the spread over the last 25 games of the regular season since becoming head coach in 2008. Spoelstra is the third-most profitable coach in the league over the second half in that span.

The Heat are currently fighting for their playoff lives, hovering just under a 50% winning percentage. Under Spoelstra, the Heat are 85-67-4 ATS (55.9%) in the second half when they have a winning percentage below 60% — which basically means they’re fighting for a playoff berth. In this spot, Spoelstra is the most profitable coach in the NBA since 2008, which should keep Miami in close games down the stretch in a tight Southeast division.

The Perfect Analogy

Betting on sports is about more than just picking winners. Straight-up winners, that is.

The Golden State Warriors are the best team in the NBA. Nobody disputes that fact. Since the beginning of last season, they own the second-best winning percentage in the NBA in the regular season (71.2%), behind the Raptors.

When you look against the spread though, the tables flip quick. Since the beginning of last season, the Warriors are 58-80-1 (42%) against the spread, the second-worst mark in the NBA, ahead of just the Cavaliers.

If a bettor would have wagered a $100 on the Warriors in every single regular season games since the start of last season, they would be down $2,515.

West On West Crime

From a results standpoint, the 2018-19 season has been known largely as a home bettors paradise.

Home teams are 448-404-11 (52.6%) against the spread this season. A $100 bettor wagering on every home team would be up $2,196 this season.

Since 2005, no regular season has ended with home bettors actually turning a profit, with last season coming the closest, losing bettors just $589 (on a $100 per game basis).

So where is all this home profit coming from? Mostly in the Western Conference.

This season, the West has dominated conference home games against the spread, going 164-112-2 (59.4%) ATS. Compare that to the East teams, which are just 50.7% at home against conference opponents this season.

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