NBA Betting Tip: Bet Overs After the All-Star Break

NBA Betting Tip: Bet Overs After the All-Star Break article feature image
Credit:

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen

  • Theory: NBA players suffer from a vacation hangover after the All-Star break.
  • Using Bet Labs, we test this idea and share a profitable over/under betting trend.

Last season, NBA games averaged 212.6 points. In the two days after the All-Star break the scoring averaged jumped to 224.1 points. The increased scoring led to overs going 10-6-1 in those contests.

Was this random, or is there a reason why scoring would be up post-All-Star break?

My theory is that after a week off, players suffer from a vacation hangover. When NBA players aren’t giving a 100 percent, it shows on the defensive end of the court. A lack of hustle can lead to increased scoring and overs being more profitable.

To test this idea, I used the Bet Labs database to examine every game played in the first two days after the All-Star break since 2005. In a team’s first game back, when they are most likely to be going through the motions, the over went 146-119-5 (55.1%).

These are good results with a nice sample size, but wagering on every over is not the optimal strategy.

At the break, there are 15 teams below .500. Most of these squads are longshots to make the playoffs. Bad teams with nothing to play for create a perfect storm for bettors. The over when two teams with losing records play the first two days after the All-Star break has gone 50-24-1 (67.6%) since 2005.

Mailing It In

On Thursday and Friday, there are five games featuring teams with losing records going head-to-head. Over bettors that buy into the vacation hangover should target these matchups:

  • Cavaliers vs. Suns (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)
  • Hornets vs. Wizards (Friday, 7 p.m. ET)
  • Magic vs. Bulls (Friday, 7 p.m. ET)
  • Hawks vs. Pistons (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
  • Knicks vs. Timberwolves (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
Legal Online Sports Betting

DraftKings Promo Unleashes $150 Sign-Up Bonus in Most States, $250 in North Carolina for Any Event

Daniel Preciado
Mar 28, 2024 UTC