Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Odds & Picks: Can Dallas Hold Golden State Under 140 This Time?

Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Odds & Picks: Can Dallas Hold Golden State Under 140 This Time? article feature image
Credit:

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry

  • The Mavericks are a 4-point favorite over the Warriors after Golden State dropped 147 points on Dallas just two days ago.
  • The Warriors are due for some regression, but are the Mavericks so broken at this point that it won't matter?
  • Matt Moore breaks down this primetime NBA showdown.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds

Warriors Odds +4
Mavericks Odds -4
Moneyline -165/+138
Over/Under 231
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.

These two teams played Thursday in a game that failed any pretense of defense.

The Mavericks hung with Golden State in the first half, but ultimately the Warriors dropped 147 points.

Let me say that louder… ONE HUNDRED FORTY-SEVEN FRIGGIN’ POINTS on Dallas.

Now the two teams meet again. Dallas is spiraling. If they were a friend, you’d have noticed they keep live-tweeting Bridgerton late night and their Spotify social feed keeps showing sad 90’s R&B.

At some point, eventually, the Mavericks have to turn it around. But until they do, they’re definitely on fail watch.

Golden State Warriors

The only notable injury information for the Warriors is that Eric Paschall, who missed the last game, is questionable. Paschall’s knee did improve, Steve Kerr said Friday, and he “got up shots” at practice.

The line hasn’t moved at all from the first matchup, which isn’t surprising. The Warriors just ran wild. They scored 30 or more in all four quarters, which has only happened 118 times since 1995.

However, as much firepower as they have, that’s an outlier performance.

In games since 1996 following a scoring performance of 140 or more, teams that are dogs in the next game are 13-28 straight up and 17-21 against the spread.

However, the Warriors have a +7.5 spread differential, third-best in the league, against teams that are bottom-10 in defensive rating, per Cleaning The Glass. Their seemingly inconsistent offense isn’t all that inconsistent; they are bottom-10 in spread differential vs. top-10 defensive teams, top five vs. bottom 10 defenses, and 18th vs. middle-ten teams. They play to their defensive competition.

So while the trends say that the Warriors should regress, the matchup does bend towards their favor.


Dallas Mavericks

Oh, Mavericks. What are we going to do with you?

This team is just a mess. “Broken” is a word that a lot of folks are using.

Dallas should be better. I need to be clear about this. The roster is simply not that much worse than last year and on paper should actually be better.

Their biggest problem is Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavericks are -5.8 in net rating with Porzingis on the floor. The Warriors in particular attacked KP:

A chunk of the Warriors' small-ball success last night was targeting Kristaps Porzingis. He just has so little chance in space guarding wings like Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins. pic.twitter.com/l1CGADtIhK

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) February 5, 2021

Luka Doncic hasn’t been as great as in previous years. He’s shooting below 30% from 3, and the Mavericks are actually losing when he’s on the court. That can’t happen.

The Mavericks last year were a great scoring team that couldn’t defend. This season, they’re a mediocre scoring team who can’t defend.

Doncic will probably play better at some point, but until we see that, it’s difficult to have faith in them.

Warriors-Mavericks Pick

The Warriors canned 22 of 41 3-pointers on Thursday in this matchup. Since 2014-15, teams that made 20 or more 3’s in the previous game and are dogs the next game are 20-34 ATS. The under in those games is 34-20 (63%).

I don’t want to take the Mavericks until we see them actually turn it around. Based on how the Warriors perform vs. bad defenses, and with them still getting four, I have to grab the points. I do think the offenses slow down, however, with a total north of 230, so I’ll go under.

Pick: Under 231, Warriors +4

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