NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Expect Low Scoring From Russell Westbrook (Wednesday, Sept. 2)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Westbrook.
- Brandon Anderson's favorite player prop bets for Wednesday's NBA slate all come from Thunder vs. Rockets Game 7.
- Russell Westbrook will be on a minutes limit Wednesday night, and he hasn't looked like himself since returning from injury.
- Anderson explains how to bet Westbrook's points in Game 7 and shares his other favorite prop bets below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Wednesday’s player props come from tonight’s Game 7:
- Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
NBA Player Prop Bets
Houston Rockets, Russell Westbrook
The Prop: Under 21.5 points (-117)
No Game 7 is short of storylines, but even in a jam-packed narrative, Russell Westbrook takes the cake. Westbrook cheered from the sidelines as Houston took a 2-0 series lead, then saw his former Oklahoma City team come back to tie things at two games apiece. The few extra days of rest during the player strike allowed Russ to make his Rockets postseason debut in Game 5, but he was quiet with only seven points in 23.6 minutes in the victory. He was much louder in Game 6, scoring 17 points and dominating the ball late as James Harden watched, losing the game for Houston.
So, here we are in Game 7. Will we get Good Russ or Bad Russ?
The answer might not be much of either. Within minutes of Houston’s Game 6 loss, news leaked immediately that Westbrook would be on a minutes limit for Game 7. Westbrook has played only 23.6 and 27.3 minutes in his two games back, and he clearly does not look like himself. If he’s stuck around 25 minutes again, it will be pretty tough to go over 21.5 points.
Westbrook scored 27.3 points per 36 minutes this season with the Rockets. At that same rate, he’d go over this number in 29 minutes. I’m not sure he gets those minutes, and I’m not sure he’s scoring at that rate even if he is out there that long. Some books aren’t even playing Westbrook points, leery of his minutes limit. I’m grabbing this under and riding it as high as -175 and as low as 19.5 points.
Houston Rockets, P.J. Tucker
The Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-106)
Game 7 is the end. There’s no holding back, no saving minutes for another day. In Game 7, coaches put the guys they trust out there as long as they can play, and that’s that. And for Houston, that’s P.J. Tucker.
Tucker has already played at least 38 minutes in three of the last four games. He’s had at least eight rebounds in all three of them, and he’s making his presence felt on the glass more and more as Steven Adams takes a more muted role for Oklahoma City.
None of this is new for Tucker. He stepped up his rebounding to 7.5 RPG in last year’s playoffs and is matching that number again this time around. We’re projecting Tucker at 8.3 rebounds, and I think this line is a full rebound too low. Our Props tool rates this one a 10, and I’m smashing it at this number as high as -150.
Oklahoma City Thunder, Dennis Schroder
The Prop: Over 3.5 rebounds (+110) (bet365)
Schroder’s rebounding can be very hit or miss, a volatile number that depends on long misses as much as anything. He’s averaging 3.3 RPG this series, but that includes high-end games of five, five, and eight rebounds. Three other games, however, include a total of two rebounds combined.
We can’t account for variance like that. But we can bet on playing time, and Schroder’s should be high in Game 7. The best Thunder lineups all season have had Schroder in them, and that’s even truer this series as Oklahoma City tries to go small to match Houston. Schroder has really been OKC’s second-most reliable player this series outside of Chris Paul. He leaped to 37.1 minutes in Game 6 and should be out there as much as he can again tonight.
We’re projecting Schroder at 35 minutes, and he’s averaged 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes with Oklahoma City. These odds make this a nice sleeper play, and we’ll hope the bounces go our way. I’ll play this one to -110.