NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Warriors’ Green Leads Top Plays On Tuesday’s Thin Slate (Jan. 12)
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Golden State Warriors standout Draymond Green.
- COVID-related issues are wreaking havoc on the NBA and its rosters, so Tuesday's slate is thinner than anticipated.
- Brandon Anderson still found three player props offering value from the games remaining on the schedule.
- Check out Anderson's full breakdown of each pick below.
It’s slim pickings on Tuesday’s NBA card, with one game (Boston vs. Chicago) already postponed, another (Miami vs. Philadelphia) headed that same way and key players questionable or potentially missing from the other five games.
The league’s health and safety protocols continue to wreak havoc on the rosters amidst the global pandemic, but that has also created opportunities for lesser-known players step into bigger roles.
And that’s the angle we’ll take on two complimentary players, plus one star who doesn’t exactly put up marquee numbers.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the ActionLabs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Draymond Green, Under 6.5 Rebounds (+106)
|Pacers at Warriors||Warriors -3|
|Time||10:30 p.m. ET|
It’s been a real joy to see Draymond Green back on a basketball court doing his thing. Green has injected life into the Warriors, and into Stephen Curry in particular. Golden State is 4-2 since Green’s return, with one of those losses coming in a rusty performance where he played less than 18 minutes.
Green does all the little things for the Warriors. He sets screens, rolls to the rim and defends like a mad man. Plus, he moves the ball quickly on offense, making the hockey-type assist on his passes.
You can only see the impact Green truly makes on a team by watching the Golden State games, because none of those things show up in a box score.
Until Green’s last game, he had recorded a “triple-single” every night out, failing to hit double-digit points, rebounds or assists in any game until he came a rebound short of a triple-double two nights ago, with 10 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists.
For the season, Green is sitting on 4.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. He couldn’t care less about traditional counting numbers — just what shows up in the win column.
We’ll play his low rebounding prop tonight, where Green is at a career-low in rebounding percentage and has gone under the number in five of six games. He’s much more focused on defending and getting his teammates going on the floor. At plus odds, this wager is in our favor.
I’ll play Green here to -115, and like Green, don’t care what the final tally hits. Just stay under the number.
|[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]|
Joe Harris, Over 1.5 Assists (-148)
|Nuggets at Nets||Nuggets -1|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Nets were supposed to have a ton of ball-handling on the court this season, but that was before Spencer Dinwiddie was sidelined for the season and Kyrie Irving continues to miss games.
That has led to Caris LeVert effectively playing point guard, and the return of Kevin Durant should inject some more creation into the roster. It’s also meant a bit more time on the ball for Joe Harris, who is putting up his usual sparkling shooting numbers (more than 50% behind the arc). Harris is also playing solid defense, plus he’s moving the ball along on offense.
Harris has multiple assists in seven of 11 games this year. That includes his last three games, where he accumulated nine total assists. And that’s not arbitrary, either. Those three games have been played without Irving, and Harris is now averaging 3.0 assists in four games without the Nets’ star this season.
Add it all up, and our projection of 2.6 assists for Harris come into focus. It also gives us better than a 50 percent margin of error and a 13.6% edge here, using our new Props Beta tool. Even with the juice here, I’ll play to -165 if needed.
|[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]|
Dejounte Murray, Over 6.5 Rebounds (Odds)
|Spurs at Thunder||Spurs -2|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
If you’re a frequent reader, you’ve seen Dejounte Murray’s rebounding total go over the number show up often. It’s typically a pretty good bet, because Murray is not like a typical point guard. He’s long, rangy and plays more like a 3-and-D wing, with nasty defense and a bit more off the ball on offense.
That puts him a bit closer to the basket for rebounds, where he then lets his size and instincts do the rest.
Murray has had a big start to his season, averaging 16.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists a game. Those are all career bests by a wide margin, as are Murray’s 32.7 minutes a game. He’s been the benefactor of Derrick White still being sidelined for San Antonio.
Murray has a 13.2% rebounding rate over the past three seasons, truly elite for a point guard, and he’s had seven or more rebounds in 60% of his games this year that have hit the over on this play.
Murray even had 14 rebounds in a game against the Minnesota Timberwolves last week, and should play big minutes in for the shorthanded Spurs outing.
We project Murray at 8.1 rebounds, which makes this a rated-10 prop. On a soft night without a ton of options, I’ll go back to the well here for another Murray rebounding over and play to -155 on the number.
|[Bet now at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.]|