Sunday’s Best 4 NBA Player Props: Bet the House on Danuel?
Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Danuel House Jr. #4 of the Houston Rockets shoots the ball
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s five games:
- Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers: 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive in.
Lakers G Avery Bradley
THE PICK: Under 7.5 points (+104) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Avery Bradley is one of those many Lakers role players. He’s been working his way back from a leg injury and has scored only 15 points, combined, over the last four games with a limit of around 18 minutes.
That restriction is expected to be lifted to 25 minutes tonight, but that doesn’t mean Bradley will play well enough to stay on the court that much.
If he is out there, it will be to guard Luka Doncic, not to shoot. Bradley is averaging only 5.5 points per game since his return from injury eight games ago, and that’s exactly where our model projects him. Add in the +104 juice and this is worth fading, up to -115 as needed.
Rockets F Danuel House
THE PICK: Over 12 points (-114) | Over 4.5 rebounds (-130) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Danuel House averages 12.9 points and 4.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. You wouldn’t think those numbers matter, but House played more than 40 minutes yesterday against the Nets and might push that again tonight with both Russell Westbrook and Clint Capela out for the Rockets.
That’s a whole lot of minutes, shots, points and rebounds to replace, and even James Harden can’t do everything on his own. House is averaging 32.0 minutes and 9.1 field goal attempts per game in December, and Houston plays in what should be tonight’s fastest and highest-scoring game.
Play the math. Our model projects House at 14.7 points and 5.9 boards, rating both of these props a 10 out of 10. Play the points up to -140 and the rebounds up to -150, and don’t be afraid to stack them both together.
Pelicans PF Derrick Favors
THE PICK: Over 11 points (-100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
It’s been a tough start in New Orleans for Derrick Favors, who is playing his lowest-scoring season since his rookie year at 8.1 points per game. But that number is misleading as Favors has played through injury, limited to only 22.4 minutes per game.
He’s scored double-digit points in three of his last four times out and, more importantly, played at least 26.8 minutes in all four of them.
Remember, Houston is missing Clint Capela, so they don’t really have anyone to match up with Favors, and he also benefits from a fast-paced game. He’s no lock to score over 11, but our model puts him at 12.9 points and thinks this is worth a play at +EV odds.
You can play Favors up to -115 or further if the line drops to 10.5.