Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Will Ibaka’s Scoring Continue to Surge?
Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Serge Ibaka
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of today’s seven games:
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs: 7:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Spurs G Dejounte Murray
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-148) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Dejounte Murray’s rebounds have consistently been one of the stronger over plays this season, and that continues to be the case, even with the juice starting to creep up. Murray is averaging 5.8 rebounds a game, and he’s had at least five boards in 22 of his 28 games.
Five is not enough to hit the over, but that tells you Murray should be at least close, and he’s gone over 5.5 in exactly half of his games. A matchup against the depleted Warriors should leave plenty of rebounding opportunities, and our models project Murray at 7.0 rebounds. You can play this one up to -170.
Cavaliers G Darius Garland
THE PICK: Under 3.5 assists (-180) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This has been another go-to prop bet for our model this season, and again, you can see the strong action in the juice. Garland is leading the Cavs in assists but that’s just 2.9 per game, and that number is actually dropping from 3.5 in October to 3.0 last month and 2.6 in December.
Garland has gone under 3.5 assists in 10 of his last 14 games, and he’s gone under 3.5 in 21 of 32 games for his career. One other interesting note is that Garland has only two four-assist games, so when he does go over, he’s clearing with ease. That matters because this line might well drop to under 3.0 with much better juice, and I still like the play there. Garland has gone under 3.0 in exactly half his games, and a three-assist game still pushes, so that’s a potentially strong play too.
For now, play the under-3.5 up to -200, and don’t be afraid to play at 3.0 too.
Raptors PF Serge Ibaka
THE PICK: Over 16.5 points (-114) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
The Raptors have kept plugging right along, even without Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka is a big part of the reason for their success. Ibaka has filled in admirably with those two stars absent, and he’s in another big spot tonight against a Cleveland roster that doesn’t exactly inspire on defense.
Ibaka has gone over 20 points in four of his last seven, and that’s right where our models have him again tonight. Ibaka should get plenty of easy chances for buckets tonight, so I love this prop all the way to -140 if needed.