Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Friday: Will Paul Millsap Drop 14 Points?

The NBA player prop highlighted below is from the late game on Friday night:

• Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers: 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Nuggets PF Paul Millsap

THE PICK: Under 13.5 Points (-114)

I'm 0-for my last two props. This is not surprising, because neither of them were Paul Millsap going under his points prop on the road. Life boils down to two things: Betting Paul Millsap road unders and passing the time between betting Paul Millsap road unders.

Sometimes you can tell how a prop bet is going early on, but that's not always the case with Millsap. I lost count of how many times I've seen him go off for 8-10 points in the first quarter and then score once more for the entire game. He might have the weirdest scoring splits in the entire NBA.

In the regular season, he averaged 14.7 points at home, 10.4 on the road. In the postseason, he has averaged 14.7 at home, 9.3 on the road. On cue, he went for 19 points in Game 1 at home and 14 points in Game 2 at home, raising his line up to 13.5.

He has gone under 13.5 in 26-of-37 road games (70%) and under 12.5 in 25-of-37 (68%), and after factoring in his postseason minutes increase of 14%, the under should have value down to 12.5 (-140).

This prop is rated a 10-out-of-10 in Bet Quality by our props tool (59% win rate this season) with a 21% gap between projected and implied total.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren't already.