Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Marcus Morris Grab 6 Rebounds?
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Morris
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Monday.
- Props include Kings PG De'Aaron Fox's assists, Thunder SG Terrance Ferguson's points and Celtics PF Marcus Morris' rebounds.
Monday night’s NBA player props are from the following three games:
- Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m ET
- Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Kings PG De’Aaron Fox
The Pick: Over 7.5 Assists (-114)
Fox is averaging 8.2 assists per game since the Kings acquired Harrison Barnes, dishing eight or more in 7-of-11 games over that span.
The second-year point guard out of Kentucky should be able to make it 8-of-12 against a Wizards defense that’s allowing the second-most assists in the league to point guards over the past 30 days (9.9).
On a night in which the Kings are implied to score nearly 120 points — roughly six above their season average — over 7.5 should have value up to -150 and over 8 at standard juice.
Thunder SG Terrance Ferguson
The Pick: Under 8.5 Points (-145)
Ferguson has been under 8.5 in each of his past seven games and doesn’t figure to buck the trend against a Jazz defense that allows the fewest points per game to shooting guards.
Ferguson might find it even tougher to score than usual against the Jazz with Ricky Rubio out: Ferguson averaged 7.6 points more per 100 possessions on 20 possessions guarded by Rubio, according to NBA Stats. But Ferguson struggled against everyone else Utah stuck on him, including Donovan Mitchell — 2.6 less points per 100, 43.0% less shot attempts on 83 possessions — who’s expected to be his primary defender on Monday night.
The Thunder’s 2017 first-round pick also struggles on the road, dropping from 7.9 to 5.8 points per game outside of OKC.
Ferguson hasn’t finished with more than seven points in eight of his last 10, so even at under 7.5, this prop should have value at standard juice.
Celtics PF Marcus Morris
The Pick: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110)
Morris has been in a shooting funk of late (39.2% since the break), and it’s resulted in a reduction in minutes at times. But it’s also brought his rebounding prop down low enough to create value.
The eighth-year power forward has grabbed at least six rebounds in eight of his past 12 games and should be able to make it 9-of-13 against a Clippers defense that’s allowing the seventh-most rebounds per game to the position over the past two weeks (12.1, per Hashtag Basketball).
When Morris has been on the floor with Jayson Tatum (out) off this season, no Celtic has benefitted more in the rebounding department than Morris, who according to our NBA On/Off tool averages 8.5 rebounds per 36 with Tatum out — an increase of 0.9 compared to with Tatum on the court.
Morris has gone over 5.5 rebounds in 40-of-62 games (64.5%) but pulled down exactly six in 15 of them (24.1%), so over 5.5 should have value up to -180, but I’d only play over 6 up to standard juice.