Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will Jimmy Butler Drop 21 Points?

The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two games:

• Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets: 7 p.m. ET
• Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks: 7:30 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

76ers SF Jimmy Butler

The Pick: Under 20.5 Points (-135)

Joel Embiid is out for rest purposes, but that doesn't necessarily mean Jamie Foxx Jimmy Butler is in line for a huge spike in production in this particular matchup.

Butler makes a living in the mid-range, gunning 43% of his total field goal attempts from that area of the floor, which is in the 94th percentile among small forwards, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Meanwhile, opponents tend to play Moreyball against Charlotte's defense, hoisting a league-low 27.6% of field goals from that area while jacking up threes at the fifth-highest rate (34.7%) and getting to the rim at the seventh-highest rate (37.7%).

In Butler's lone game against the Hornets as a member of the Sixers (albeit, with Embiid), he shot and scored at a lower rate than his season average against each of the three defenders he saw most (Dwayne Bacon, Nic Batum, and Kemba Walker, per NBA Stats).

Butler also earns 25.7% of his points from the line, but Charlotte isn't one to foul, allowing the second-fewest free-throw attempts per game in the league (20.2).

According to our NBA On/Off tool, Butler is averaging 17.9 points per 36 minutes in the 199 minutes he has been on the floor with both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris with Embiid off. Add J.J. Redick to that mix, and Butler's points per 36 drops to 13.9.

Butler has dropped 21 points in just four of 12 games he's played without Embiid, failing to reach 20 seven times, so this prop should have value down to under 19.5 at -140.

Hawks PF John Collins

THE PICK: Over 9.5 Rebounds (-130)

Collins is averaging 10.9 boards in 29.5 minutes per game since the break, including a 12-rebound effort in 32.3 minutes against the Rockets on Feb. 25.

With 6-foot-10 Clint Capela manning the middle for a Houston lineup that also features 6-foot-6 P.J. Tucker at the stretch-4, the Rockets tend to allow more rebounds than usual to the power forward position (10.4, tied for 10th-most, per HoopsStats.com).

The Rockets also allow the eighth-most offensive rebounds per game overall (10.9), which is key for Collins since 37.8% of his total rebounds come on the offensive glass.

Collins has secured at least 10 rebounds in six of his past nine starts and 60% of his starts overall, pulling down 11 or more exactly half the time, so over 9.5 should have value up to -150 and over 10 up to standard juice.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there as well.