Pacers vs. Raptors Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions: How Sharps Are Betting the Spread and Total
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis (11) of the Indiana Pacers.
- The sharps have picked out Pacers-Raptors as one of their favorite games on Sunday's NBA slate.
- See why the pros have triggered a line movement and how you should consider this movement before betting this showdown between two top Eastern Conference teams.
- See our NBA team's full betting analysis below.
Pacers at Raptors Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Raptors -5.5
- Over/Under: 218.5
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- TV: League Pass
The Toronto Raptors keep cruising, and the Indiana Pacers keep sliding. The Pacers have been very disappointing since welcoming back Victor Oladipo, although he’s doubtful for today’s matchup.
Will they regain their early-season chemistry and surprise in Toronto? Or will the Raps keep taking care of business? Our experts break it down.
Betting Trends to Know
The Raptors have taken care of business in this situation this season, going 17-11 ATS at home and 23-16 as favorites. As home favorites, they are 17-9 ATS, giving bettors a robust 29.8% ROI.
The Pacers, though, have also been good in this spot, going 16-11 ATS on the road this year. They have struggled lately overall, winning just three of their last 10 straight-up.
Mears: How Sharps Are Betting Indy-Toronto
Given the Raptors’ dominance this season at 41-15 overall, plus the Pacers’ recent struggles (they did beat Milwaukee the other day without Giannis, to be fair), it’s no surprise to see the public all over Toronto tonight: The Raptors are getting 82% of the bets and 77% of the money wagered on the spread, which has gone up to Raps -5.5 after opening at -4.5.
And it seems the sharps are for now on the same side:
We’ve tracked one steam move on this game so far, which came at Raps -5. There has been some market resistance though, as it has moved only a point despite the steam and the massive public action.
The over/under is more interesting as of now, and this game has already seen a pretty high volume of bets, indicating it’s a pretty liquid market already. We’re tracking 75% of bets on the over but 76% of bets on the under. That definitely indicates some sharp money on the under, as it’s actually moved down a full point despite public bettors pounding the other side.
I think the Pacers are the most interesting team to watch for the rest of the regular season. They have a ton of talent, and it seemed they would take off once star Victor Oladipo came back from an extended injury absence.
That hasn’t happened, though; in fact, they’ve been much worse with him. The metrics are pretty brutal: The Pacers have been 8.0 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor vs. on. The biggest issue has been on offense, which has dipped by a huge 9.9/100 with Dipo out there.
Things could and likely should turn at some point this year: Dipo is an awesome player, and he’s given the Pacers actually a better shot profile. The issue is they just haven’t been able to shoot. He’s been the biggest culprit: Despite being a 44.1% career shooter, he’s at 33.3% this year. His 3-point percentage is down at a miserable 25.0%. Whether he’s still not 100 percent or just rusty, it’s been ugly.
But the Pacers don’t have to worry about that dynamic today, as he’s doubtful to play. Will the chemistry automatically come back with the mainstays operating the offense? That’s the question for today’s tilt.
I would lean the Raptors — they’ve been just so good in this spot and I’m skeptical the Pacers can just keep flipping switches with different guys — and the under, given the sharp money on the latter bet.
Moore: How I’m Betting Tonight’s Game
I’ve been big on Eastern conference home teams this season. East home favorites vs. the East are 91-74-4 (55%) ATS this season. But with Nick Nurse’s Raptors, it gets even better. In two seasons, the Raptors are 26-18 (59%) ATS as a home favorite vs. Eastern Conference teams.
That margin dips vs. the really good teams; facing teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Raptors go to just 7-6 ATS under Nurse at home. But the Pacers are just slightly below that mark.
Indiana played the Raptors extremely close at home earlier this season. But on the road, the Raptors have been much tougher. One caveat: Victor Oladipo is out in this game, which I think actually helps the Pacers with getting back to the rhythm that made them so good before their losing streak before All-Star weekend.
However, with a line below two possessions, I’m taking Toronto.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.