Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hitting Five Conference Tourney Unders
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Wiseguys continued their hot streak on Thursday. They took advantage of neutral courts, tired legs and soft totals and finished 4-1 with their conference tournament Under plays. Betting on Unders may not be sexy, but they cash just the same as spreads.
After examining all percentages and line movement for Friday’s massive 41-game slate, here are five college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 6:30, 7:00, 9:00 and 11:05 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET
Providence-Xavier Under 147.5
6:30 p.m. ET
A classic Pros vs. Joes total matchup. More than 70% of bets are on the Over, but the total has fallen from 151 to 147.5 since opening. Why would the books drop the total to give public Over backers a better number? Because they have big liability on the Under.
Wiseguys at Pinnacle hit the Under three separate times, causing a trio of steam and reverse line moves that forced the market to drop the total. Steam and reverse line moves are triggered by Sports Insights’ proprietary Bet Signals feature and identify where professional bettors are placing their money. Even though the Pinnacle moves are all negative on the season, the moves are still notable because they come from one of the sharpest offshore books.
Clemson-Virginia Under 117.5
7:00 p.m. ET
Virginia is known for their stifling defense. They’re first in the country in points allowed (52.9 ppg). But the public sees an insanely low total and automatically says “it has to go over”. Not the sharps. More than 70% of bets are going Over but it only accounts for 42% of dollars (indicating all Average Joe money). Meanwhile, despite such heavy Over betting, the line has fallen from 118.5 to 117.5. We’ve only see one bet signal on the game: Under 117.5 at JustBet. John Ewing also found a great Bet Labs trend on Unders in games with a total of 120 or less (64% since 2005).
Kansas State-Kansas Under 138.5
7:00 p.m. ET
Despite over/under percents being relatively split, the total has fallen from 141.5 to 138.5 since opening. This movement was caused by sharps steaming the Under at two different offshore books.
First they hit Under 141.5 at 5Dimes (the 5Dimes steam move is up +68.9 units this season, by far the best bet signal in College Hoops). Then the sharps at BetUS hit under 140 (BetUS is up +15.6 units this season). Overall, you have more than +84 units of smart money on the Under.
Butler-Villanova Under 149.5
9:00 p.m. ET
Butler is the top scoring team in the nation (87.4 ppg), so square bettors see an easy Over. Not the sharps. Nearly 60% of bets are on the Over but 71% of dollars are on the Under. The big dogs at 5Dimes steamed the Under 152. A few hours later, wiseguys at CRIS hit under 151. This heavy influx of Under smart money caused the market to drop the total down to 149.5.
Southern Utah-Eastern Washington Under 145.5
11:05 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are staying up late and rooting for missed field goals and shot clock violations. Sharps at BetOnline steamed the Under 148 and doubled down on the Under 147. This is notable for two reasons. First, they kept hitting the Under even though the line got worse. Second, BetOnline is your 2nd-best NCAAB steam move (+39.5 units), trailing only 5Dimes.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully-customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
If you have any questions about Sports Insights, the Betting Hangouts, or betting concepts in general, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights
Cover Photo via Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Virginia head coach Tony Bennett coaches Devon Hall and other players in a recent game against Louisville