NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:00 AM  Vermont UVM  N.J.I.T. NJIT | -4.5 +4.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-106 +6.5-110 | 40%60% | ||||
12:00 AM  New Orleans UNO  Lamar LAM | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5-110 -4.5-115 | 67%33% | ||||
12:00 AM  E. Kentucky EKY  Bellarmine BELL | +1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +2-110 | 49%51% | ||||
12:00 AM  Austin Peay PEAY  Jacksonville JAC | -7 +7 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-102 +6.5-114 | 41%59% | ||||
12:00 AM  New Haven NHC  Fairleigh FDU | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2.5-108 | 56%44% | ||||
12:00 AM  Furman FUR 771  Wofford WOF 772 | +1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +0.5-113 +1.5-115 | 34%66% | ||||
12:00 AM  NC A&T NCAT 769  Elon ELON 770 | +8 -8 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-102 -7.5-105 | 64%36% | ||||
1:00 AM  Illinois St ILST 777  Bradley BRAD 778 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-105 -3.5-120 | 52%48% | ||||
1:00 AM  Providence PROV 779  DePaul DEP 780 | +1.5 -1.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-115 -3.5-102 | 56%44% | ||||
1:00 AM  Illinois ILL 783  UCLA UCLA 784 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6 +6 | -5.5-115 +5.5-102 | 75%25% | ||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-113 +9-110 | 57%43% | |||||
1:00 AM  Texas A&M-CC AMCC  McNeese St MCNS | +14 -14 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-106 -14.5-110 | 93%7% | ||||
+12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-102 -13-110 | 49%51% | |||||
1:00 AM  Wyoming WYO 775  Grand Canyon GC 776 | +7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9.5-102 | 69%31% | ||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-115 -9.5+100 | 67%33% | |||||
1:00 AM  Indiana St INST 785  Belmont BEL 786 | +13.5 -13.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-102 -13-105 | 53%47% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +0.5-113 +1.5-118 | 47%53% | |||||
1:30 AM  Texas A&M TXAM 791  Oklahoma OKLA 792 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-113 -1.5+100 | 63%37% | ||||
1:30 AM  Kentucky UK 793  Auburn AUB 794 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-105 -3.5-110 | 72%28% | ||||
2:00 AM  UCF UCF 799  Utah UTAH 800 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5-125 +1.5-110 | 62%38% | ||||
2:00 AM  Pacific PAC 797  Gonzaga GONZ 798 | +17.5 -17.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21.5-108 -21.5-105 | 27%73% | ||||
2:00 AM  UTEP UTEP 801  N. Mexico St NMSU 802 | +7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-115 -7.5-102 | 74%26% | ||||
2:00 AM  CS Northridge CSN 795  LBSU LBSU 796 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-108 +3.5-106 | |||||
2:30 AM  Montana MONT 805  Weber State WEB 806 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-114 -2-110 | 64%36% | ||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +5.5-105 | 41%59% | |||||
3:00 AM  Portland PORT 809  Seattle SEA 810 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5-112 -6.5-110 | 44%56% | ||||
3:00 AM  UCSB UCSB 821  Hawaii HAW 822 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-105 -4.5-110 | 56%44% | ||||
3:00 AM  Idaho IDHO 813  Sac State SAC 814 | -3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4-110 +4.5-114 | 44%56% | ||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -7 +7 | -6.5-115 +7.5-110 | 60%40% | |||||
3:00 AM  UCSD UCSD 815  UC Irvine UCI 816 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-105 -4.5-110 | |||||
3:00 AM  Utah State USU 807  Nevada NEV 808 | -5.5 +5.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5-105 | 77%23% | ||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8-110 +8.5-110 | 53%47% | |||||
3:30 AM  Iowa State ISU 819  BYU BYU 820 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | 49%51% | ||||
2ND 3:34  Delaware St DSU  Morgan State MORG | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -12.5 | +5.5-110 -5.5-105 | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-122 +1.5-125 | 73%27% | |||||
2ND 8:04  MD-E Shore UMES  Coppin St COPP | -3.5 +3.5 | +11.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +3.5-110 | 29%71% | ||||
2ND 2:32  Presbyterian PRE  USC Upstate SCUS | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +0.5-112 +1.5-118 | 35%65% | ||||
OT 0:56  Radford RAD  UNC Asheville UNCA | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-106 -2.5-110 | 66%34% | ||||
2ND 1:03  E. Michigan EMU 741  Toledo TOL 742 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -21.5 | +8.5-106 -8-110 | 59%41% | ||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 +5.5 | +6.5-110 -6-110 | 57%43% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +4-110 -3.5-110 | ||||||
-3 +3 | -5.5 +5.5 | -2.5-115 +2.5-105 | 51%49% | |||||
2ND 1:45  West Virginia WVU 733  TCU TCU 734 | +5.5 -5.5 | -1.5 -4.5 | +4.5-105 -4.5-110 | 57%43% | ||||
2ND 6:19  LA Tech LT 739  Kennesaw St KENN 740 | +7.5 -7.5 | +0.5 -0.5 | +5.5-102 -5.5-118 | 53%47% | ||||
END 2ND  North Alabama UNA  Lipscomb LIP | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-105 -12.5-110 | 57%43% | ||||
+2 -2 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-112 -1.5-108 | 54%46% | |||||
2ND 15:42  UConn CONN 743  Villanova VILL 744 | -1.5 +1.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -2.5-121 +3.5-110 | 70%30% | ||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +15.5 -7 | +7-110 -6.5-114 | 47%53% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | -1.5-102 +2.5-110 | 52%48% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5-110 -1.5-108 | 51%49% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5-118 +3-105 | 56%44% | |||||
1ST 1:19  Buffalo BUFF 749  UMASS MASS 750 | +7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +7.5-108 -7.5-107 | 75%25% | ||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5-112 -5.5-117 | 46%54% | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-106 -12.5-105 | 49%51% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-115 | 65%35% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1.5-102 | 44%56% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +1.5-106 | 34%66% | |||||
1ST 1:01  Temple TEM 763  Wichita State WICH 764 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-105 -8.5-110 | 75%25% | ||||
1ST 3:23  Grambling St GRAM  Southern U SOU | +5.5 -5.5 | +16.5 -5.5 | +5.5-107 -5.5-110 | 54%46% | ||||
-6 +6 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-110 +7.5-110 | 82%18% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-109 | 56%44% | |||||
-13 +13 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-105 +11.5-107 | 66%34% | |||||
+3 -3 | +0.5 -3.5 | +4-105 -3.5-112 | 46%54% | |||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-112 +4-115 | 62%38% | |||||
1ST 9:47  Prairie View PV  AR-Pine Bluff ARPB | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -3.5 | +3.5-115 -3.5-102 | 61%39% | ||||
1ST 12:09  Michigan MICH 767  Duke DUKE 768 | -1.5 +1.5 | -3.2 +3.2 | -5.5 +5.5 | D+ D | -1.5% -3.9% | -2.5-118 +3-110 | 38%62% | 53% 47% |
+6 -6 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-112 -4-110 | 59%41% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9-110 | 29%71% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-113 -3.5-115 | 50%50% | |||||
+14 -14 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-107 -12.5-108 | 36%64% | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-102 -12.5-110 | 51%49% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-108 | 51%49% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +8.5-109 -8.5-110 | 66%34% | |||||
-12.5 +12.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5-110 +13.5-108 | 76%24% | |||||
-3.5 +3.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-115 -1.5-115 | 71%29% | |||||
Final  Albany ALBY  UMBC UMBC | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-102 | 34%66% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1 +1 | +0.5-118 +1.5-118 | 65%35% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-102 +3.5-108 | 77%23% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-104 +2.5-107 | 67%33% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +9.5-110 -9.5-105 | 34%66% | |||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -5 +5 | -4.5-107 +5-110 | 66%34% | |||||
-9.5 +9.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-107 +8.5-110 | 54%46% | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5+100 -8.5-110 | 24%76% | |||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +7 -7 | +7.5-112 -7-110 | 39%61% | |||||
Final  Navy NAVY  Army ARMY | -9.5 +9.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -7.5-110 +8.5-115 | 65%35% | ||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-115 -3.5-114 | 67%33% | |||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-118 | 70%30% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +3 -3 | +3-105 -2.5-118 | 53%47% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +3 -3 | +3-110 -2.5-110 | 56%44% | |||||
+6 -6 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 60%40% | |||||
+8 -8 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-110 | 78%22% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-114 -4.5-118 | 51%49% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +2-110 | 76%24% | |||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -7 +7 | -6.5-112 +7.5-115 | 63%37% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7-110 -7-105 | 44%56% | |||||
+4 -4 | +4 -4 | +4-110 -3.5-115 | 68%32% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +0.5-109 +1.5-122 | 62%38% | |||||
Final - OT  C. Arkansas CARK  FGCU FGCU | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5+105 +1-115 | 67%33% | ||||
+18.5 -18.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-105 -17.5-102 | 47%53% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-105 -7.5-110 | 75%25% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9.5-102 | 33%67% | |||||
Final - OT  Loyola (MD) L-MD  Colgate COLG | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-107 | 67%33% | ||||
-4 +4 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4-115 | 89%11% | |||||
+19 -19 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5-106 -19.5-108 | 45%55% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-104 -2.5-112 | 64%36% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-108 +1.5-110 | ||||||
+23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +24.5-113 -23.5-105 | 66%34% | |||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -4 +4 | -4.5-102 +3.5-102 | 66%34% | |||||
+16.5 -16.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -12.5-110 | 48%52% | |||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -3 +3 | -2.5-118 +3.5-105 | 46%54% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9-110 -8.5-112 | 58%42% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4.1 -4.1 | +6 -6 | B- F | 4.2% -9% | +6.5-110 -6-110 | 67%33% | 46% 54% | |
+4 -4 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-107 -4-110 | ||||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-102 +6.5-110 | ||||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -5.5-113 +6.5-115 | 68%32% | |||||
-14.5 +14.5 | -15.5 +15.5 | -15.5-106 +15.5-110 | 73%27% | |||||
-16.5 +16.5 | -16.5 +16.5 | -16.5-110 +16.5-110 | 73%27% | |||||
Final  Wolves UWG  Queens QUC | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +12.5-117 -11.5-105 | 61%39% | ||||
+4 -4 | +4 -4 | +3.5-102 -3.5-113 | 52%48% | |||||
+7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-108 -7.5-108 | 58%42% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1-110 | 66%34% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-115 -4.5-102 | 62%38% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +7 -7 | +7.5-113 -7-110 | 26%74% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-110 -2.5-110 | 61%39% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -2 +2 | -1.5-110 +2.5-118 | 72%28% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +8 -8 | +8-110 -8.5+100 | 57%43% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +8 -8 | +8.5-115 -7.5-115 | 55%45% | |||||
Final - 2OT  Longwood LONG  Charleston So CHSO | +4 -4 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-105 | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10-105 -10.5-102 | 73%27% | |||||
-3 +3 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-114 +2-105 | 32%68% | |||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-105 -7.5-108 | 42%58% | |||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -3 +3 | -2.5-114 +3-105 | 73%27% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-106 -9.5-105 | 60%40% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 -5.5-104 | 45%55% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-102 -5.5-107 | 23%77% | |||||
+16 -16 | +18 -18 | +18.5-110 -17.5-110 | 57%43% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-105 -3.5-107 | ||||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -2 +2 | -1.5-118 +1.5-102 | 52%48% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-105 -4.5-105 | 47%53% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -2 +2 | -1.5-110 +2.5-118 | ||||||
+16.5 -16.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-110 -15.5-105 | 44%56% | |||||
-7 +7 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-115 | 67%33% | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +9 -9 | +9.5-106 -9.5+100 | 45%55% | |||||
+14.5 -14.5 | +15 -15 | +14.5-105 -15.5-102 | 41%59% | |||||
-4 +4 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5-114 +4-105 | 54%46% | |||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-102 +8.5-114 | 54%46% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -4.5-106 | 48%52% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-107 -2.5-110 | 49%51% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.