NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 PM  Green Bay GB 767  Youngstown St YSU 768 | +5.5 -5.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -6.5-110 | 81%19% | ||||
12:00 AM  E. Kentucky EKY  North Florida UNF | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-114 +6.5-105 | 31%69% | ||||
12:00 AM  Towson TOWS 803  Elon ELON 804 | +2.5 -2.5 | +5 -5 | +1.5 -1.5 | F A | -14.2% 9.4% | +2.5-110 -1.5-114 | 62%38% | 62% 38% |
12:00 AM  S. Alabama USA 773  JMU JMU 774 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -3-110 | 73%27% | ||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-115 -1.5-110 | 77%23% | |||||
12:00 AM  Canisius CAN 795  Sacred Heart SHU 796 | +9 -9 | +10.5 -10.5 | +11-110 -9.5-110 | 67%33% | ||||
12:00 AM  Arkansas St ARST 801  GA Southern GASO 802 | -2 +2 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-102 +2-110 | 31%69% | ||||
12:00 AM  Niagara NIAG 805  Fairfield FAIR 806 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5+100 | 56%44% | ||||
12:00 AM  Stony Brook STON 789  Northeastern NE 790 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-115 -4.5-102 | 52%48% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -1-110 | 78%22% | |||||
12:00 AM  Merrimack MRMK 787  Iona IONA 788 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1-110 +1.5-114 | 29%71% | ||||
12:00 AM  S. Florida USF 783  UAB UAB 784 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2-110 +3-110 | 50%50% | ||||
12:00 AM  Wisconsin WIS 777  Penn State PSU 778 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +5.5-105 | 43%57% | ||||
12:00 AM  Milwaukee MILW 779  Robert Morris RMU 780 | +5.5 -5.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-110 -4.5-118 | 35%65% | ||||
12:00 AM  Bellarmine BELL  Jacksonville JAC | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +3.5-102 -3.5-113 | 54%46% | ||||
12:00 AM  Monmouth MONM 775  Hampton HAMP 776 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1-110 +1.5-125 | 57%43% | ||||
12:00 AM  Texas St TXST 785  Coastal Car CCAR 786 | +2 -2 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-110 | 67%33% | ||||
12:00 AM  Quinnipiac QUIN 793  St. Mary's MSM 794 | -5 +5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-115 +5-110 | 56%44% | ||||
12:00 AM  Marist MRST 799  Siena SIE 800 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 +1-110 | 59%41% | ||||
12:00 AM  Campbell CAMP 771  Charleston COFC 772 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4-110 -3.5-105 | 37%63% | ||||
12:00 AM  Hofstra HOF 797  NC A&T NCAT 798 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-108 +9.5-110 | 37%63% | ||||
12:30 AM  W. Illinois WIU 809  Morehead St MORE 810 | +9 -9 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9-110 -8.5-106 | 40%60% | ||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 +1.5-110 | 59%41% | |||||
+3 -3 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-110 -2-110 | 85%15% | |||||
+7 -7 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 -5-115 | 66%34% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-109 -8.5-108 | 68%32% | |||||
2:00 AM  FIU FIU 837  UTEP UTEP 838 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-102 +1.5-110 | 36%64% | ||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +3-110 | 61%39% | |||||
2:00 AM  Cal Poly CP 831  UCSB UCSB 832 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-102 -8.5-115 | 46%54% | ||||
2:00 AM  Sac State SAC 825  Idaho IDHO 826 | +9.5 -9.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-106 -9.5-110 | 71%29% | ||||
+1 -1 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-115 -1.5-102 | 69%31% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7-110 -6-110 | 50%50% | |||||
2:00 AM  UCSD UCSD 833  UC Davis UCD 834 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +2-110 | 36%64% | ||||
2:00 AM  SD State SDST 829  St. Thomas UST 830 | +7 -7 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -7-110 | 62%38% | ||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-110 -6-110 | 57%43% | |||||
2:00 AM  Weber State WEB 819  Montana MONT 820 | +5.5 -5.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-110 -3.5-118 | 67%33% | ||||
2:00 AM  NDSU NDSU 839  Denver DEN 840 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4-110 +4.5-108 | 50%50% | ||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -7.5-115 +9-110 | 33%67% | |||||
3:00 AM  LBSU LBSU 843  CS Fullerton CSF 844 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -2.5-110 | 74%26% | ||||
5:00 AM  CS Bakersfield CSB 845  Hawaii HAW 846 | +15.5 -15.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17-110 -15-110 | 59%41% | ||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +7 | -3.5-109 +3.5-108 | 53%47% | |||||
1ST 15:15  Vermont UVM  UMass Lowell MASSL | -4.5 +4.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5-109 | 52%48% | ||||
1ST 16:01  Binghamton BING  New Hampshire UNH | +7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -8.5 | +9.5-108 -9.5-106 | 64%36% | ||||
1ST 15:33  Albany ALBY  Maine ME | -3.5 +3.5 | -6.5 +2.5 | -2.5-112 +3.5-113 | 53%47% | ||||
1ST 16:27  N.J.I.T. NJIT  UMBC UMBC | +8.5 -8.5 | +10 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-112 | 69%31% | ||||
+18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -18.5-105 | 65%35% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-102 -8.5-110 | 49%51% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-108 -6.5-110 | 35%65% | |||||
Final - OT  Stetson STET  Lipscomb LIP | +14.5 -14.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-109 -15.5-105 | 58%42% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.