3 Profitable College Basketball Betting Trends for the 2019-20 Season
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Seton Hall Pirates guard Myles Powell (13).
- The 2019-20 college basketball season tips off on Tuesday Nov. 5.
- Using our Bet Labs data, we’ve identified three profitable betting systems for the college basketball season.
- You can get access to all our profitable systems with Action Network PRO.
The first college basketball slate of the 2019-20 college basketball season is highlighted by a pair of top five matchups in Madison Square Garden.
In the State Farm Champions Classic, No. 3 Kansas takes on No. 4 Duke (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) followed by a showdown between No. 1 Michigan State and No. 2 Kentucky (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
And as you start handicapping the first games of the season — these Final Four-caliber matchups and all the others — here are three college basketball Pro Systems every bettor should follow.
Want more strategies? We have 15 total college basketball Pro Systems that users can follow as Action Network PRO members.
1st Half Under with High Total
Casual bettors often wager on full game spreads and totals while ignoring first half lines. This is a mistake, especially with unders, as there is not threat of overtime that can keep you from cashing your ticket.
One profitable approach to betting first half unders is when a majority of tickets are on the full game under and the first half total is high. In most games, bettors often wager on the over because it is more fun to cheer for points.
So seeing a majority of tickets on the under is a strong indication that the contest should be low scoring while a high total makes it easier for the under to hit.
Fade the Public in Big Conferences
Betting against the public in college basketball is a profitable long-term strategy. The idea is straight-forward, when recreational gamblers load up on one team the market will inflate the lines, which makes it smart to wager on the other side.
Gamblers can gain an edge by focusing on matchups featuring Power Conference teams. These tend to be the most bet with additional square action.
In conference games featuring squads from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12, teams getting less than 25% of spread tickets have gone 605-496-27 (55.0%) ATS since 2005.
This PRO System becomes more profitable when focusing on games with high over/unders.
Poor ATS vs. Good ATS Teams
Being a contrarian gambler often means going against the grain and fading recent trends. For example, teams that struggle to cover the spread are often undervalued while teams that have a winning record against the spread (ATS) are overvalued.
ATS records tend to regress to the mean over time, which means teams that perform poorly will do better as the season progresses and those that are covering could struggle to continue their winning ways for bettors.
When a poor ATS team, covered 33% or less of their games, plays a team with a winning ATS record, the team that hasn’t been covering has gone 3,296-2,867-136 (53.5%) ATS since 2005.
There is more value following this strategy in conference games.