Tuesday’s College Basketball Betting: N.C. State-UNC, Florida State-Syracuse
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nassir Little
The NFL season has wrapped up, so college basketball should be on everyone’s minds with March Madness just 44 days away.
To propel the transition, nine ranked teams are in action on Tuesday’s slate, including No. 8 North Carolina facing in-state rival N.C. State and No. 22 Florida State traveling to Syracuse. Which ACC teams delivers more value? Let’s break down the matchups.
>> All odds as of Monday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets.
Betting Odds: N.C. State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels
- Spread: UNC -11
- Over/Under: 163
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ACC Network
Not only have the Wolfpack (13-9 against the spread) failed to cover in three of their past past four games, but they were also crushed by Virginia Tech in a 47-24 outright loss on Saturday. The Tar Heels (13-6-2 ATS) have notched four consecutive covers.
Kevin Keatts’ bunch failed to cover vs. UNC in an eight-point defeat on Jan. 8, but it forced North Carolina into 23 turnovers. Roy Williams’ unit is struggling in that area despite its 11th-rated Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (118.8 points per 100 possessions), totaling the fifth-highest turnover rate (18.9%) in ACC play. Tar Heels point guard Coby White owns a 21.1% turnover percentage, too.
Expect the Wolfpack’s ball pressure to stymie UNC’s attack while generating opportunities for the 33rd-highest Adjusted Tempo (72.2 possessions per 40 minutes) in Division I. Buying low on an offensive bounce-back makes for intriguing play, especially against a program that’s let up the eighth-highest 3-point clip (33.8%) amid its conference slate.
Moreover, North Carolina’s opponents have totaled the 84th-highest scoring percentage (34.8%) from that vicinity. N.C. State’s 2 of 28 shooting performance vs. Virginia Tech hampered its perimeter standing, but it’s still amassed the 84th-highest 3-point percentage (36.1%) in the nation overall.
Look for CJ Bryce (39.1%), who posts 12 points per game, to rediscover his stroke after going 0 of 9 from behind the arc against the Hokies.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Wolfpack are 10-7 (58.8%) ATS as an underdog since last regular season, and they’re in a sound position to cover in this rematch.
THE PICK: N.C. State +11
Betting Odds: Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange
- Spread: Syracuse -2.5
- Over/Under: 137.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ACC Network
The Orange (13-9 ATS) have racked up a cover in nine of their past 11 contests while the Seminoles (8-13 ATS) have done so in two of their past three.
Similar to UNC, FSU has been plagued by miscues throughout the campaign with the 105th-highest turnover rate in the nation. Jim Boeheim’s vaunted 2-3 zone should create more issues, as it’s amassing the 18th-highest opponents’ turnover percentage (23.0%).
Florida State is shooting just 32.8% from the perimeter as well, and that’s a prime concern against a zone-oriented defense.
At the other end, Syracuse’s 3-point shooting has flipped the script in league play via a 36.3% clip — the fifth-highest percentage in the ACC. It’s accrued the highest scoring percentage from that area, too. With FSU racking up the seventh-highest clip (33.7%) during its league slate, Syracuse should have success there.
Each team presents two of the most sizable lineups in college basketball, but I’ll side with the Orange’s length to slow the pace down by getting to the line. They’ve accumulated the 68th-highest rate (38.0%) in that department, led by the 6-foot-8 Oshae Brissett (13.5 ppg), and the Seminoles haven’t been adept at staying out of foul trouble.
The favorite is 5-0 ATS in their past five matchups, per Bet Labs. That trend will continue in Syracuse.
THE PICK: Orange -2.5