Kansas-TCU Betting Preview: Will the Horned Frogs Enact Revenge in Their Rematch?
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas Jayhawks guard Lagerald Vick (24), TCU Horned Frogs guard Alex Robinson (25).
Just three ranked teams are in action in Monday’s college basketball docket, including the showdown in Chapel Hill between Virginia and UNC. But don’t forget about No. 13 Kansas, which travels to Fort Worth, Texas vs. unranked TCU.
What’s the best play in this crucial Big 12 matchup? Let’s break it down.
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Betting Odds: Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs
- Spread: TCU -3
- Over/Under: 148.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
The Jayhawks (10-14 against the spread) have failed to cover in six of their past eight games, along with going 1-4 ATS on the road in conference. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs (13-10 ATS) snapped their three-game cover-less skid by racking up a nine-point win at Iowa State on Saturday.
Kansas’ Dedric Lawson (19.6 points per game), who torched TCU for 31 points en route to a cover on Jan. 9, will likely face more traps in this one. However, the Horned Frogs have still yielded the 32nd-highest two-point scoring rate (54.1%) and the highest percentage (54.8%) in Big 12 play.
Bill Self’s crew owns the highest interior scoring rate (51.9%) in league play. Expect ball handlers Devon Dotson and Ochai Agbaji to generate offense via the dribble drive, opening up room for an improved perimeter attack.
The Jayhawks are shooting 39.2% from behind their arc in their past three games.
Two of them were at Allen Fieldhouse, but Lawson (34.0%) and Co. have clearly refined their respective 3-point shots.
With TCU letting up the second-highest eFG% (52.7%) against conference foes, Kansas is in prime position to carry over its success from a 12-point win over Oklahoma State on Saturday. It found a rhythm in the second half without sharpshooter Lagerald Vick (personal), who’s out for the foreseeable future.
At the other end, the Horned Frogs’ slightly above average pace is spurted by their prowess for getting to the free-throw line, notching the second-highest rate (37.8%) in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks have stymied their league opponents to the second-lowest rate (26.5%), though. Look for TCU to struggle with creating offense in half-court sets.
Kansas is set up to control the pace with its 75th-ranked Adjusted Tempo (69.9 possessions per 40 minutes) in college basketball, presenting an opportunity for a higher-scoring affair. But the over has hit in only one of its five conference road games, so I’d lean towards passing on the total.
According to our Bet Labs data, TCU is 7-9-2 (43.8%) ATS against ranked Big 12 teams in Jamie Dixson’s tenure with the program (2016-19). I’m not high on the Jayhawks’ long-term prospects, but expect them to cover in a sound road spot.
THE PICK: Kansas +3