5 College Basketball Teams Being Overrated, Underrated by Oddsmakers

Nov 06, 2018 10:30 AM EST
  • Below are the most overrated and underrated teams based on college basketball national championship odds for 2018-19.
  • The Duke Blue Devils and Indiana Hoosiers are both a bit overvalued in the market.
  • See the three teams that have enticing odds to win it all.

USC was one of college basketball’s preseason darlings last season, checking in with 20-1 national title odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in late October.

Fade to black.

The Trojans failed to earn a ticket to the NCAA tournament, then Andy Enfield’s unit fell to Western Kentucky in the second round of the NIT.

On the flip side, Loyola-Chicago’s then-lowly preseason odds can’t even be found in our archives, but that didn’t stop the Ramblers from becoming the first mid-major to make the Final Four since Wichita State in 2013. (The Shockers have has since joined the AAC.)

A handful of teams will follow either one of those paths this season, and there’s value in zeroing in on them early.

Here are a few squads that fall on both ends of the spectrum.

*Odds via Westgate

Overrated College Basketball Teams

Duke Blue Devils

  • National championship odds: 4-1
  • Odds in June: 5-1

The Blue Devils brought in arguably the greatest recruiting class of all-time with R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, Zion Williamson and Tre Jones.

Nevertheless, throwing a crew elite prospects together — albeit one that’s more defensively sound than last season’s group — and expecting them to mesh within roughly a 39-game stretch is a tall task in college basketball.

Eight of the past 12 national champions possessed a top 190 ranking under KenPom’s Experience Factor, including Louisville’s vacated 2013 title. Four of them placed in the top 70, which included Duke in 2010 (No. 69).

Expect that trend to continue.

Indiana Hoosiers

  • National championship odds: 30-1
  • Odds in June: 200-1

With Romeo Langford — the Hoosiers’ first five-star recruit since James Blackmon stuck around in-state — Indiana boasts a legitimate shot at finishing within the top three of the Big Ten standings.

Still, the Hoosiers will likely nab a middle-tier seed in the Big Dance, and their championship odds won’t increase anytime soon, as they’re faced with an unfavorable matchup at Duke on Nov. 27.

Tennessee (25-1), Villanova (25-1), Michigan State (25-1), Michigan (40-1) and Syracuse (40-1) all hold more value.

Even with an experienced tournament coach in Archie Miller, hold off until Indiana’s odds sink a bit.

Underrated College Basketball Teams

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MICH
PROV
--
--
--
--
TTU
MSU
152.5
-33
153.5
-33
VMI
UK
151.5
-33
153
-33
PEN
KSU
144
-10
146
-10.5
VT
PUR
151.5
-1.5
153.5
-1.5