Drake vs. Southern Illinois Odds & Picks: Back the Bulldogs’ Home ATS Trend

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Odds & Picks: Back the Bulldogs’ Home ATS Trend article feature image
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Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Roman Penn.

  • Drake — the college basketball gambling sweetheart of the 2020-21 season thus far — takes on Southern Illinois in a Missouri Valley Conference showdown on Sunday.
  • The Bulldogs are undefeated straight up and against the spread this season, and they'll look to keep that streak going against the Salukis.
  • Mike Randle breaks down the game and shares a betting pick for the game below.

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Odds

Drake Odds -11.5 [BET NOW]
Southern Illinois Odds +11.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -1000 / +660 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 142.5 [BET NOW]
Time Sunday, 6 p.m. ET
TV ESPNU
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Get up to a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel today.

The Drake Bulldogs are off to a fantastic start this season. They’re undefeated and own a perfect 9-0 record against the spread.

After two impressive road wins at Indiana State, can the Bulldogs keep it going against a tough 7-1 Southern Illinois team?

The Matchup

On offense, both of these teams play at a similar pace. However, Drake’s efficiency has translated to 82.8 ppg compared to the Salukis’ 73.6 ppg. Both teams are superb from beyond the arc, shooting above 41% from 3-point range.

Both teams feature a trio of versatile lead scorers. The Salukis are led by three sophomores, including 6-foot-6 sophomore Marcus Domask, who has 25 or more points in two of the past three games. He’s joined by guards Ben Harvey (11.5 ppg) and Lance Jones (11.4 ppg), who both shoot over 40% from beyond the arc.

Drake relies on the talented trio of forward ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg), and guards Roman Penn (12.5 ppg, 6.1 apg) and D.J. Wilkins (11.5 ppg). All three players shoot well from beyond the arc, with Wilkins (52.7%) ranking eighth-best in the nation.

But there are two critical areas where Drake holds a substantial advantage:  rebounding and defense.

The Bulldogs are top-50 in defensive rebounding percentage and grab over 11 offensive rebounds per game. This will be a problem for a Southern Illinois team that ranks 329th with just five offensive rebounds per game.

Defensively, Drake is the far superior team, holding opponents to 28% from 3-point land and 46% from inside the arc. In their last game at Indiana State, the Bulldogs forced the Sycamores to commit 17 turnovers.

Drake’s incredible start is even more impressive when considering it has experienced unfortunate luck from opponents at the free-throw line. Teams are shooting over 74% from the charity stripe against Drake, a number that is due for regression.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Drake suffered a series of injuries last year, derailing much of its regular season. However, it was healthy at Missouri Valley Tournament time, as illustrated by a shocking 77-56 win over top-seeded Northern Iowa.

The year prior, Drake was a college basketball-best 24-7-1 ATS. That included a fantastic 11-2 at home.

Overall, under head coach Darian DeVries, the Bulldogs have been fantastic against the spread at home.

Whether you examine this game from a matchup perspective or trend, the Bulldogs hold the advantage.

Their offensive and defensive efficiency is superior, and Drake will find 3-point success at home against a Salukis team that allows opponents to shoot 37.7% from deep.

I’m staying with the Bulldogs at home and laying the big number with college basketball’s hottest ATS team.

Pick: Drake -11.5 (up to -12.5).

[Bet Drake at FanDuel completely risk-free up to $1,000]

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