Monday College Basketball Betting Previews: Boise State-Creighton, Arizona State-Mississippi State
Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Quinndary Weatherspoon (11).
Boise State-Creighton and Arizona State-Mississippi State present some value in their respective brackets. Let’s breakdown which teams to bet on.
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Betting odds: Boise State vs. Creighton
- Spread: Creighton -5
- Over/under: 145
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Stadium
The Bluejays (0-3 against the spread) allowed Ohio State to go on a late 13-0 run Thursday and the Buckeyes pulled out a 69-60 win in Omaha. This game represents a solid bounce-back spot for Creighton, which can expose the Broncos (0-2 ATS) from the perimeter.
Greg McDermott’s unit owns a 56.7% Effective Field Goal Percentage — thanks to its 46.0% 3-point percentage — the 12th-highest in Division I. Boise State has allowed its opponents to shoot 38.5% from deep. Bluejays guards Ty-Shon Alexander (47.4%) and Mitch Ballock (40.0%) should excel in that department, especially if they’re able to leak out in transition.
The Broncos are adjusting to losing their two best scorers (Chandler Hutchison, Christian Sengfelder) from last season, averaging 0.97 Points Per Possession after totaling 1.06 PPP in the 2017-18 campaign.
Creighton holds its own on that end of the floor, ranking No. 53 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Moreover, Boise State has scored 54.3% of its points inside the arc, where the Bluejays have been at their best with their position-less lineup.
According to our Bet Labs data, Creighton is 21-14-0 ATS (60.0%) over the past two-plus regular seasons when laying at least five points. Expect that trend to continue.
THE PICK: Creighton -5
Betting odds: Mississippi State vs. Arizona State
- Spread: Mississippi -3.5
- Over/under: 149.5
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
Despite the Sun Devils starting off 3-0(2-1 ATS) , they’re one of the most overachieving teams in the country.
Arizona State has amassed 27.2% of its scoring from the free-throw line — the 27th-highest rate in the nation. It won’t be sustainable against the Bulldogs’ defense, yielding a mere 0.80 points per play. The Sun Devils rank No. 203 in eFG% (49.3%), as well, after losing their top scoring trio from last season.
Mississippi State (2-1 ATS) guards Tyson Carter and Quinndary Weatherspoon represent two of the premier ball hawks in the sport, both generating a top-30 Steal Rate. They’ll create plenty of havoc against Arizona State’s youthful backcourt.
The 6-foot-4, 190-pound Weatherspoon was one of the more dynamic offensive players in college basketball a season ago, but he’s transitioned into more of scorer (21.4 PPG) this season. The senior has improved his eFG% by 8.8 percentage points from his past campaign, and the Sun Devils won’t have much of an answer for him.
ASU’s weak non-conference schedule thus far has netted them a No. 60 AjD. Arizona State managed to allow 0.98 PPP to Call State Fullerton in their season opener, too. The Bulldogs should cash in with their No. 29 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
Mississippi State is 16-13-0 ATS (55.2%) when giving at least 3.5 points in the past two-plus regular seasons, per our Bet Labs data. The Bulldogs will tack on another cover Monday night.
THE PICK: Mississippi State -3.5; Under 149.5