UNC, Michigan State Among Best Tournament Teams Against the Spread

Most of the teams in the NCAA Tournament are pretty good (sorry, NC Central). I think that's a given. However, these teams have varied wildly when it comes to their performances against the spread this season. It's not exactly something the bracket folks consider when making their selections and setting the seeds.

It's definitely something I was interested in knowing, though. Using Bet Labs, I went ahead and looked at how each team has done this year when it comes to their records against the spread (ATS).

Not all extra/added games recorded in database.

10 Best Teams Against the Spread

1. UNC: 22-9-1 (3rd-best in country)
2. Michigan State: 22-10 (4th)
3. Virginia: 21-9 (5th)
4. Ole Miss: 20-9
5. VCU: 20-10
6. Murray State: 18-9
7. Oklahoma: 19-10-2
8. UC Irvine: 20-11-1
9. Michigan: 19-11
10. Houston: 17-10

(Abilene Christian 3-0)

What do you know? We actually have some of the best teams right at the top of the list. The Tar Heels lead the way at a terrific 22-9-1 mark against the spread, trailing only Drake and CS Northridge for most profitable team in the nation. Unfortunately, Drake lost as the 2-seed to No. 6 Northern Iowa in the MVC Tournament and didn't get a chance to go dancing. Ironically, the Bulldogs closed as 3-point dogs and got the cover in their losing effort.

UNC, Michigan State and Virginia all covered by an average of more than three points and I doubt many people would argue they're not among the best teams in the country.

The next two teams are in a different boat, though, as Ole Miss covered by just over a half point on average, while VCU was up over five points! They're both No. 8 seeds, but KenPom has VCU seven spots higher in terms of adjusted efficiency rankings.

Historically, teams with a 60+% cover rate haven't been good spread bets in the Big Dance. Excluding when they face one another, they've gone just 174-202-8 ATS — an ugly -10% return on investment (ROI). Teams with a 70% cover rate like UNC have fared even worse, covering only 43.7% of their tournament games with close to a -15% ROI.

10 Worst Teams Against the Spread

1. Northern Kentucky: 11-19-1 (9th-worst in nation)
2. Old Dominion: 12-19-1
3. Cincinnati: 12-18-1
4. Florida: 13-18-1
5. Iowa: 12-17
6. Iona: 13-17
7. Montana: 14-18
8. Ohio State: 14-16
9. Wisconsin: 13-15-1
10. Kansas: 15-16-1

(Gardner Webb 1-2, New Mexico State 0-2)

On the opposite end of the spectrum lie these "crappy" teams. Some are just a couple of games below .500, which isn't too bad.

At the very bottom of the list lies Northern Kentucky. The Norse cracked the bottom ten in the country when it came to profitability, but managed to make the tournament by winning the Horizon League Tournament. Perhaps they were a bit unlucky, though, as they actually had a positive cover margin differential. This is most likely the result of a few huge wins and several games in which they failed to cover by just a couple points.

You might be surprised to see Cincinnati so low, as the Bearcats went 28-6 overall and are KenPom's 32nd-ranked team in the country. They went 6-4 ATS vs. non-conference opponents, but just 6-14-1 vs. their AAC comrades.

Teams with a 40% cover rate or worse have gone .500 ATS in the tourney, but that falls to a 10-20-3 record when you drop that cover rate down to 35% or worse. The only teams that fit that bill, however, are Gardner Webb and New Mexico State.