NCAA Tournament Head Coaching Model: Ranking Each’s Track Record, Betting Success

Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo, John Calipari, Jim Boeheim.

There are a ton of coaches in this year's NCAA Tournament with impressive resumes, but who is the best? And how would we go about measuring the "best" coach?

Thankfully, we have some really cool data to answer this question as opposed to creating a subjective list.

To rank each coach, we have to account for a couple of problems. First, longevity matters. The best coaches are those who consistently go far in the tournament, so total games played will be the first category of the rankings.

Second, expectations are important. North Carolina beating Iona is not the same as Iona beating North Carolina. Thankfully, moneyline data can help us. By measuring total money won in the tournament, No. 1 seeds will be rewarded very little for wins over 16-seeds and vice versa.

We now have our categories, which I'll call "Longevity Score" and "Performance Score," respectively. Coaches will be ranked on a 0-100 scale for each, and the highest combined number will have the best coaching rank.

Without further ado, our 2019 rankings (data is since 2004).

2019 NCAA Tournament Coach Rankings

The following coaches are in the tournament for the first time:

• Steve Wojciechowski (Marquette)
• Richard Pitino (Minnesota)
• Matt McMahon (Murray St.)
• Chris Jans (New Mexico St.)
• Russ Turner (UC Irvine)
• Bill Coen (Northeastern)
• John Brannen (Northern Kentucky)
• Travis DeCuire (Montana)
• David Richman (North Dakota St.)
• Greg Herenda (Fairleigh Dickinson)

Over-Performing Coaches

One of the most maligned coaches in the nation for starting the one-and-done movement, coach Calipari, tops our rankings. He has gone 39-11 in the tournament, making it to the Sweet 16 in all but one appearance.

He won the national title with Anthony Davis in 2012, but the 2014 run might be his most impressive work. That year his No. 8-seeded Kentucky team, led by Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein, made it to the championship game, eventually losing to UConn. Bettors would have netted $462 betting on the Kentucky moneyline that year — his most profitable run.

Next on the list is another top-tier coach who really over-performed as a low seed. Boeheim has gone 20-9 in the tournament in our sample, winning bettors $1,084 if they bet Syracuse's moneyline every game. His best two seasons have been his two most recent appearances, making a Sweet 16 run as a No. 11-seed last year and making the Final Four in 2016 as a No. 10-seed.

The only coach who has been more profitable in this year's field is Mississippi coach Kermit Davis, who has won $1,416 in just four games, largely thanks to his former team, Middle Tennessee State, taking down Michigan State back in 2016 as a nearly +1600 underdog.

Although they're still at the top of the list because of their longevity, it's possible this style of analysis underrates coach Williams at UNC and coach Krzyzewski at Duke, both of whom are perennially No. 1 seeds and favored in nearly every game.

In fact, our own John Ewing broke that down here:

Underperforming Coaches

There are five coaches in this year's field who have coached at least 10 tournament games since 2004 and have lost bettors $300 or more:

• Rick Barnes (Tennessee): 11-10 record, -$612
• Tony Bennett (Virginia): 10-8 record, -$554
• Fran Dunphy (Temple): 2-8 record, -$554
• Mick Cronin (Cincinnati): 5-8 record -$438
• Mike Krzyzewski (Duke): 26-11 record, -$349

Bennett obviously has the most embarrassing loss in the history of the Big Dance, becoming the first No. 1 seed to ever lose in the first round. But it's Tennessee's Barnes who takes the top spot in terms of losing bettors the most money among coaches with 10 or more games (Belmont's Rick Byrd is actually first with $700 lost in seven appearances).

Barnes has actually performed well as a heavy favorite, going 7-0 in games in which he's a -280 moneyline favorite or better. He's been favored in all 21 games in our sample, but when less than a -280 favorite, he's just 2-6. He lost last season as a -210 favorite over cinderella Loyola Chicago.

And we can't forget about Coach K, who obviously has a ton of wins and titles but also some brutal losses. Who can forget the Lehigh game in 2012 (Duke was a -760 favorite) or the 2014 Mercer loss (Duke was a -1200 favorite)?

Again, Calipari takes this year's top honors, as he did a season ago. Can he hold on to the title or will another great coach go on a memorable run?