Northern Iowa vs. Loyola-Chicago Odds

Two Missouri Valley Conference favorites collide on Sunday when the Northern Iowa Panthers visit the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers.

Yesterday, the Ramblers won the initial 2021 meeting at home, 72-57. However,  the prior four games between these two rivals have either been decided by one point or gone to overtime.

Will this be another thriller, or does one team hold a significant advantage in 2021?

The Matchup

The centerpiece of the Loyola-Chicago offense is 6-foot-9, 255-pound center Cameron Krutwig. The senior earned preseason All-Missouri Valley honors, and is averaging 16.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 1.4 BPG.

Krutwig has scored double-digit points in the Ramblers' last nine games and has yet to total more than three fouls in any game.

Head coach Porter Moser's offense has been operating as a strong overall unit. In Missouri Valley play, the Ramblers are shooting 60.8% from inside the arc while shooting 37.6% from 3. Guards Lucas Williamson (42.9% 3-point) and Braden Norris (39.2%) serve as the foundation for the outside balance to Krutwig.

Loyola-Chicago's interior defense makes it difficult for opponents to find consistent scoring. The Ramblers rank first in conference play in 2-point defensive efficiency, holding opponents to just 39.8% from inside the arc. Their only MVC loss came at Indiana State when the Sycamores shot a blistering 44.4% (8-of-18) from beyond the arc.

In order to stay competitive, the Panthers are going to have to generate points from deep. Since losing star guard A.J. Green for the season (hip), that's been a major problem for Northern Iowa.

The Panthers have played a significant six-game portion of their conference schedule.

In those games, Northern Iowa is shooting a Missouri Valley-worst 32% from beyond the arc. It has needed to rely even more heavily on its 2-point scoring to generate points, generating 53.3% of their points in conference play from inside the arc. This will play directly into the strength of the Ramblers' defense with Krutwig.

Northern Iowa will rely on senior Trae Berhow (14.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 40% 3-point) to lead their scoring attack. However, the Ramblers held Berhow to just 7-of-19 shooting in the teams' two meetings last season.

Junior forward Austin Phyfe (12.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG), will be critical in battling on the interior against Krutwig. He was key in the Panthers' 67-62 OT win last season, with 14 points, seven rebounds and four blocks.

In Saturday's game, the Panthers hung tough until late in the second half. Northern Iowa lost, 72-57, after committing 18 turnovers to Loyola-Chicago's five. The Panthers shot only 5-of-19 from 3 — simply not good enough against the Ramblers.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Northern Iowa brought its best effort Saturday but ultimately fell short. I think that was its chance to earn the road upset against the Ramblers.

While the trend this season has been the reverse team wins the second night of a back-to-back matchup, the absence of Green is crippling Northern Iowa.

Loyola-Chicago shot only 6-of-21 from beyond the arc, a percentage very likely to see positive regression.

The Ramblers are an impressive 5-1 this year at home ATS, while Northern Iowa is now 0-4 ATS on the road.

I'm backing Loyola-Chicago as the favorite to sweep a short-handed Northern Iowa team.

Pick: Loyola-Chicago -10.5 (up to -10.5).