Wisconsin vs. Maryland Odds

The Maryland Terrapins look to upset the Wisconsin Badgers for the second time this season on Wednesday night.

Maryland sits at 9-7 on the year and 3-6 in the Big Ten but has shown the ability to compete with some of the top teams in the country this year. In addition to their previous won over the Badgers, the Terrapins boast wins as underdogs over both Illinois and Minnesota.

Wisconsin will look to avenge the surprising home loss to Maryland and likewise bounce back from a loss to Ohio State last time out. Greg Gard’s team looks to be in prime position to get back on track against a hit-or-miss Maryland squad.

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Head-to-Head Matchup

Wisconsin's focus on defensive pressure forces teams to really work on the offensive end, and the Badgers rank seventh in the country in defensive efficiency, allowing only 0.89 points per possession. Gard’s veteran lineup gives up no easy baskets and does so without fouling. 

Offensively, Wisconsin relies on its guards to make plays and hit outside shots. It ranks 34th in the country in 3-point percentage and will hope to shoot at a better clip than it did against Ohio State, when it made just 7-of-28 attempts.

The Badgers rank second in the country in turnover percentage, trailing only Villanova and own a 1.59 turnover-to-assist ratio.

Maryland has been an underdog in every Big Ten game this year except for its opener against Rutgers, which it lost, 60-74. It has won outright on the road in three of those games and caught some of the top teams in the conference off guard. 

The first matchup between these two teams was a back-and-forth game in which the Terrapins made some timely shots to take the lead late in the second half when they outscored Wisconsin, 46-36. 

Maryland has a top-50 offense in terms of efficiency but struggles from the free-throw line. In what I anticipate to be a low-scoring affair, free throws could be a huge factor. For a Maryland team that ranks 274th in the country, that could be a game-changer. 

Maryland relies on its guards for the majority of its production with Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins averaging 12.2 and 14.4 points per game, respectively.

In the first matchup, the duo combined for 32 of the Terrapins' 70 points. They will need to repeat that effort against a hungry Badgers defense if they want to stay competitive in this matchup.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The Badgers will come out much more prepared than we saw in the first matchup and will simply be too much defensively for Maryland.

I anticipate a lower scoring game, similar to the first half of their previous matchup in which the Terrapins scored just 24 points. That will play right into the tempo Wisconsin wants to play. 

My projections have this game at Wisconsin -6.55, so I see good value on a team that doesn’t miss its free throws down the stretch.

Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (up to -4).